ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

Would anyone happen to know what time the 0z UK updates?

It updates at around 12 am CT. Im on my phone right now so I cant post the link, but just search for the UKMET model on google.

[chaser1]

Would anyone happen to know what time the 0z UK updates?

It updates at around 12 am CT. Im on my phone right now so I cant post the link, but just search for the UKMET model on google.

Hmmm, thanks! 2:00am Eastern but UK still not up. I have the direct link and tried refreshing too. Oh well, will just see in the a.m.

[bahamaswx]

edit: False alarm!

[GCANE]

TCFA posted on NRL site

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 072818.gif

[bahamaswx]

All of that beautiful outflow...gone.

[bahamaswx]

You can really see him pushing up against that pocket of shear now, but the ULL is weakening rapidly.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Does anybody what conditions the NHC deems unfavorable for Tuesday that aren`t there today?


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[NDG]

I think the dry air to the south of 91L is still messing it up every time it has tried to get an LLC going, it has made it to collapse.

[ninel conde]

I think the dry air to the south of 91L is still messing it up every time it has tried to get an LLC going, it has made it to collapse.

dry air has been a multi year problem now. i suspect the best dorian will ever look is after its swept out of the tropics by the latest front. it may find some instability and moisture north of 25n

[NDG]

I think the dry air to the south of 91L is still messing it up every time it has tried to get an LLC going, it has made it to collapse.

dry air has been a multi year problem now. i suspect the best dorian will ever look is after its swept out of the tropics by the latest front. it may find some instability and moisture north of 25n

I absolutely agree with you, but if the GFS is correct once 91L approaches FL it has to deal with northerly shear & dry air from the death ridge at the south central US so its best best is to get picked up by the trough for any development, lol.

[GCANE]

DMAX comes thru again.

Vis sat showing some very nice overshooting tops right over the LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 290245.jpg

[GCANE]

Looks like it is slowing pushing away the 200mb PV anomaly from the ULL.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 1java.html

Wonder if it just might slip by to the south of the axis and come thru relatively intact.

[Alyono]

Does anybody what conditions the NHC deems unfavorable for Tuesday that aren`t there today?


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25-30 KT of shear

[ninel conde]

I think the dry air to the south of 91L is still messing it up every time it has tried to get an LLC going, it has made it to collapse.

dry air has been a multi year problem now. i suspect the best dorian will ever look is after its swept out of the tropics by the latest front. it may find some instability and moisture north of 25n

I absolutely agree with you, but if the GFS is correct once 91L approaches FL it has to deal with northerly shear & dry air from the death ridge at the south central US so its best best is to get picked up by the trough for any development, lol.

its best chance would be for it to get picked up east of florida. once its out of the tropical death grip it might look pretty good east of hatteras. once it begins moving northeast it will be moving with the shear so that will be less of a problem.

[Alyono]

I think the dry air to the south of 91L is still messing it up every time it has tried to get an LLC going, it has made it to collapse.

Many here overuse the term dry air as much as they do convective feedback.

Numerous research studies have demonstrated that dry air only becomes entrained into a cyclone when there is wind shear present

[weatherwindow]

Ditto. Circle the wagons:

Richard! Talk to me.. Mean looking wave :0)

Good morning, SFL...uggh, what a difference a few hours makes! The current condition of our erstwhile wannabe cyclone is akin to that of a child's neatly stacked blocks after evil child next door kicks them all over the living room. The final line in my earlier post extolling the positives of 91L..."it appears that all the pieces are in place with the exception of the assent of the weather gods". Looks like the weather gods may have spoken. I no longer have faith in the future of 91L . Grtz from KW, Rich

As always, my opinions are to be taken with a grain of salt. For all official forecasts please consult the experts: the NWS and the NHC

[ninel conde]

I think the dry air to the south of 91L is still messing it up every time it has tried to get an LLC going, it has made it to collapse.

Many here overuse the term dry air as much as they do convective feedback.

Numerous research studies have demonstrated that dry air only becomes entrained into a cyclone when there is wind shear present

you make a good point. flossie dealt with far drier air and was much better than dorian. what is wrong in the deep tropics the last few years?

[blp]

I think visible will show a LLC outracing its mlc. Looking at the IR I think we were tracking a mlc last night and the LLC might be where recon found that wind shift out in front of the mlc.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rb_lalo-animated.gif

[NDG]

I think the dry air to the south of 91L is still messing it up every time it has tried to get an LLC going, it has made it to collapse.

Many here overuse the term dry air as much as they do convective feedback.

Numerous research studies have demonstrated that dry air only becomes entrained into a cyclone when there is wind shear present

I know what you mean and I agree, as I have seen some beautiful storms blossom surrounded by dry air and I have always said that if there is no windshear the tropical system moistens up its own environment. But in this case with Dorian the dry air has had to be getting entrained at some point every time the convection started going.

[CourierPR]

I guess I'm in the minority here, but I don't think the system looks that bad on satellite. It appears that thunderstorms have increased. Let's see what happens today before we bring Bones back.