ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical

[Dean4Storms]

The NHC's mission is to help mitigate damage and personal injury from tropical cyclones. In this case, TD 02L is nearing landfall in Belize. Thus, the decision to upgrade is appropriate in my opinion. However, a depression in the middle Gulf 24 hours or more away from landfall is not an immediate threat and can await confirmation before upgrading. At least in my opinion that is true.

There are also shipping and oil rig concerns in the Gulf that you're forgetting. I thought the NHC used obs, sat. presentations, e.t.c... in determining classifications not if it was a threat soon enough. That is not the way they are suppose to classify these systems.

Offshore companies tend to use private industry for hurricane forecasts

True, but a system is not officially considered a Tropical Cyclone until the NHC classifies it and insurance certainly doesn't see it as a Tropical Cyclone until the NHC classifies it, correct?

[Alyono]

True, but a system is not officially considered a Tropical Cyclone until the NHC classifies it and insurance certainly doesn't see it as a Tropical Cyclone until the NHC classifies it, correct?

private industry at times will begin issuing statements on a disturbance well before NHC does. Private industry simply requires more lead time for the necessary preps

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The center of 02L is lifting a lot farther north than it's supposed to be. The LLC seems to be in the process of dissipating, but the vigorous MLC remains. Should have no problem becoming Barry over the Bay of Campeche.

[Alyono]

the LLC does not immediately reform, however. It takes time

[wxman57]

wxman57, you still think TD 2 will become Barry at BOC? I ask because NHC doesn't strengthen it even over water.

Certainly no guarantee, but I think it will make it. Looks like a remnant low now, not a TD. Wouldn't be surprised if the NHC declares it post-tropical this afternoon and stops advisories for now. Needs to get back over water for 12-24hrs or so to develop.

[cycloneye]

wxman57, you still think TD 2 will become Barry at BOC? I ask because NHC doesn't strengthen it even over water.

Certainly no guarantee, but I think it will make it. Looks like a remnant low now, not a TD. Wouldn't be surprised if the NHC declares it post-tropical this afternoon and stops advisories for now. Needs to get back over water for 12-24hrs or so to develop.

You see NHC stopping advisories at 4 PM CDT and then resuming them tomorrow?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

the LLC does not immediately reform, however. It takes time

Right. But being over water...in the Bay of Campeche at that...with low wind shear, minimal dry air, and warm sea surface temperatures should certainly speed up that process.

[wxman57]

If the NHC can't find evidence of a well-defined LLC then it may elect to declare TD Two "post-tropical" and a remnant low. Fair chance of that this afternoon. Doesn't mean TD Two is done, just means it weakened below a TD while crossing the Yucatan. Still would have an excellent chance of regeneration once it moves into the BoC. And if that's the case, then the NHC would resume advisories.

[weatherwindow]

wxman57, you still think TD 2 will become Barry at BOC? I ask because NHC doesn't strengthen it even over water.

Certainly no guarantee, but I think it will make it. Looks like a remnant low now, not a TD. Wouldn't be surprised if the NHC declares it post-tropical this afternoon and stops advisories for now. Needs to get back over water for 12-24hrs or so to develop.

You see NHC stopping advisories at 4 PM CDT and then resuming them tomorrow?

Good afternoon, Luis et al....Perhaps, the NHC may continue advisories, despite the absence of a well defined circulation, just for the sake of continuity and to reduce confusion in the face of potential regeneration in a short time frame?...Greetings from Key West, Rich

[cycloneye]

Campeche cam.

http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-c ... amica.html

[wxman57]

Very weak swirl marking what's left of the LLC is located 30 miles due south of Ciudad del Carmen near 18.2N/91.8W. It's about to move offshore. Nothing but some low-level stratus near this center. No squalls. Regeneration still possible over the extreme southern BoC tonight. No threat of it moving northward out of the BoC.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 02, 2013061818, , BEST, 0, 181N, 915W, 25, 1009, TD

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 02, 2013061818, , BEST, 0, 181N, 915W, 25, 1009, TD

The last advisory will be at 4 PM CDT as 18z Best Track updated without the TD designation.

AL, 02, 2013061818, , BEST, 0, 181N, 915W, 25, 1009, LO

[Cyclenall]

18z Best Track

AL, 02, 2013061818, , BEST, 0, 181N, 915W, 25, 1009, TD

The last advisory will be at 4 PM CDT as 18z Best Track updated without the TD designation.

AL, 02, 2013061818, , BEST, 0, 181N, 915W, 25, 1009, LO

Bad . Why did I get the feeling I would open the topic to see this dandy. USE UP BARRY!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The last advisory *for now*. I highly doubt we don't see any regeneration. The fact that the low-level circulation has tightened on approach to the Bay of Campeche should show it still has a chance.

[SouthDadeFish]

It looks like the LLC has emerged in the BoC and now looks more defined than it has the past 12 hours.

[Alyono]

it is a remnant low now

however, by tomorrow, it likely will be a TD again

[Hammy]

I'm assuming in this case that the downgrade will be more related to the lack of convection near the actual centerpoint, as opposed to the lack of a defined center.

[alan1961]

Very weak swirl marking what's left of the LLC is located 30 miles due south of Ciudad del Carmen near 18.2N/91.8W. It's about to move offshore. Nothing but some low-level stratus near this center. No squalls. Regeneration still possible over the extreme southern BoC tonight. No threat of it moving northward out of the BoC.

Would you say its about roughly here wxman57?, obviously this image
is about from 2pm so it will be nearer the coast now

[Alyono]

there is no well defined center. I have been looking all day and have not been able to close one off