ATL: INGRID - Models

[Rgv20]

0z Euro is about 12 hours slower and slightly further north than the 12z run, making landfall just north of Tampico in 96 hours.

0zECMWF has 93L almost in the same spot (maybe a tad more north) as the 0zGFS Ensemble Means thru 96hrs.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro is about 12 hours slower and slightly further north than the 12z run, making landfall just north of Tampico in 96 hours.

0zECMWF has 93L almost in the same spot (maybe a tad more north) as the 0zGFS Ensemble Means thru 96hrs.

I hope at least you get some heavy rain from this Rgv! I was really hoping it would make landfall closer to Brownsville so that the heavy rain could spread into central TX.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS has landfall as a 983 mb hurricane near La Pesca.



Edited to fix location. Thanks Alyono.

[Alyono]

that's well north of Tampico... closer to la Pesca

[ROCK]

the 06Z GFS also destroys the ridge at 123.......just 15hrs and the Texas coast would be wide open but noooo it has to move inland before then...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_42.png

[sphelps8681]

Won't we get better model runs once 93l develops a coc.

[Portastorm]

Won't we get better model runs once 93l develops a coc.

Yes we will. But regardless, model guidance overnight was fairly consistent that the ridging is going to hold fairly strong north of 93L. It will gain poleward but as it looks right now not nearly enough miles to make landfall in the CONUS. Of course if 93L meanders around the BOC as some suggest, future course corrections will likely be made.

[Dean4Storms]

Even the GFS is showing low pressure (maybe 93L remnants) dancing around in the BOC over the next couple weeks. No telling what all might transpire eventually.

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF and GFS still show a Mexico storm and this is now in the medium range where both these reliable models are very good. NAVGEM is not reliable so take it with a grain of salt. Same story with this one since this thread started a week ago - probably a Mexico storm but possibly extreme Southern Texas as well. How many BOC storms impacting Mexico have we seen the past few seasons? Seems like this has been the golden setup that keeps repeating over and over...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[PTrackerLA]

There's some hope for south TX moisture wise. 06z GFS shows significantly more precipitation for southern Texas (widespread 3"-6") than the meager 1" or so totals on the 00z GFS. Will be interesting to see what the 12z models show.

[HurriGuy]

Looking at these model runs, to me it looks apparent that the models are getting confused with what is 93L and what is 90E. GFS just looks weird stalling the system there then slinging it north after the ridge weakens. IMO...seems like this morning the models weaken the ridge somewhat in the upcoming days, but if the models indeed confused with the two systems then maybe this does go more north.

[djmikey]

Well....ALL hope is not lost for Texas according to Houston Chronicle's Sci-guy Eric Berger! Sounds like moisture from future Ingrid will be headed to Texas AFTER landfall is a possiblitly according to his latest article this morning!

"......But that’s not to say the next week is going to be entirely dry. Tropical moisture from this system, and a generally easterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico indicates the possibility of rain over most of Texas.

The bottom line is that while this system is going into Mexico, most likely, its eventual track over land could have a significant effect on our state’s rain chances next week. What that effect will be is something not yet clearly discerned by the forecast models....."

You can read his full article here.... http://blog.chron.com/weather/2013/09/w ... -of-texas/



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[PTrackerLA]

06z HWRF does a small loop in the BOC (possible interaction with invest 90E?) moves NW to make landfall just south of Brownsville as a 983mb hurricane then rides up the coast of Texas. Interesting but HWRF hasn't proven to be too reliable past few seasons.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013091206-invest93l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[HurriGuy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/93L_gefs_latest.png

look at the general consensus and you can see why maybe it picks up 90E.

By curiosity....if this little drift wnw then does that little half loop happens, what would be the cause of that?

[HouTXmetro]

Despite consensus the fact is that most of the model landfalls are now north of Tampico. Could that be the start of a trend? I know the Window is closing being in medium range but it seem there is a short window if 93L stalls it could head further north.

[cycloneye]

[Stormcenter]

This is how I feel about 93L and all of these models.

[Alyono]

we do NOT want this coming to Texas... would almost certainly be a strong cane if it comes to Texas

[Tireman4]

we do NOT want this coming to Texas... would almost certainly be a strong cane if it comes to Texas

How about just rain? Can we have the rain? No wind......And it can pull down a cold front like Ike did...then I am happy...

[ROCK]

we do NOT want this coming to Texas... would almost certainly be a strong cane if it comes to Texas

a puny cat 1 or strong TS would be good to have...