ATL: KAREN - Models

[ROCK]

yeah I am leaning more to the EURO and UKMET solution just like the NHC..and a few local METS...the 0Z EURO and even now the 12Z EURO has initialized this correctly. Pretty much nailed it so far with track. Might be right with intensity given that Karen is basically a naked swirl right now...lol

[ROCK]

EURO at 24hr...south of LA...

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=024

[ROCK]

12Z CMC still into central LA....at 30hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 013100412/

[Aric Dunn]

yeah I am leaning more to the EURO and UKMET solution just like the NHC..and a few local METS...the 0Z EURO and even now the 12Z EURO has initialized this correctly. Pretty much nailed it so far with track. Might be right with intensity given that Karen is basically a naked swirl right now...lol

ROck they are not doing well with it at all.. they open it up to a wave and no depth in the atmosphere yesterday the 24 hour from the euro had a open wave do you see a open wave now ? . that clearly is no happening and thus its being steered more by the mid levels less by the low levels.. hence the earlier than anticipated turn to the north.

[ROCK]

48hr EURO

landfall in Southern LA hooking east now and very weak...

[Aric Dunn]

48hr EURO

landfall in Southern LA hooking east now and very weak...

the center of the isobar is off shore no landfall.

[ROCK]

48hr EURO

landfall in Southern LA hooking east now and very weak...

the center of the isobar is off shore no landfall.

now you are splitting hairs....

[Aric Dunn]

Also the euro this run has shifted east a good deal. coming more into line with the rest

[Dean4Storms]

I agree Aric, for whatever reason the ECM is failing to see it as a mid level steered system although it might be fluctuating between the LL and ML. Just don't see it getting that close to the LA Coast with the Ridge already showing signs of backing down with it this sheared.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, that is a bit earlier turn to the east for the ECM.

[ROCK]

all the weather will be east anyway so really doesnt matter where it comes on shore in LA...if you are east of the center you will probably get some rain. Someone might get some squally wind....maybe if she doesnt just become a naked swirl....

[Aric Dunn]

Euro 72 hour landfall near panama city
large east shift.. I bet it come even farther east tonight.

[tolakram]

all the weather will be east anyway so really doesnt matter where it comes on shore in LA...if you are east of the center you will probably get some rain. Someone might get some squally wind....maybe if she doesnt just become a naked swirl....

Euro has come south again, curving a little further off shore. The higher rez vorticity plot clearly shows this. I still think it clips some of the marsh areas at the mouth of the Mississippi as it heads E/NE into Florida. Landfall is between fixes so not sure about intensity.

[gatorcane]

You got to hand it to the GFS. Yet again it looks like it figured out the synoptic pattern in the medium range calling for the sharp ENE hook before the other models did.

[Aric Dunn]

You got to hand it to the GFS. Yet again it looks like it figured out the synoptic pattern in the medium range calling for the sharp ENE hook before the other models did.

and the hwrf lol

[stormlover2013]

I say it will barley be tropical storm land fall, this thing is a mess, last 2 years hurricane season has been a big duddddddd except for sandy


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[Steve]

>>I say it will barley be tropical storm land fall, this thing is a mess, last 2 years hurricane season has been a big duddddddd except for sandy

Not to get off topic, but you do realize that Hurricane Isaac cost several thousand people their homes and belongings, right? I wouldn't call it a dud. 99% of Metairie and most of New Orleans lost power for that, some for a week or more, and other areas had massive flooding.

Edit (that would be 59,000 homes here) http://bigstory.ap.org/article/isaac-damaged-59000-homes-la

[sunny]

>>I say it will barley be tropical storm land fall, this thing is a mess, last 2 years hurricane season has been a big duddddddd except for sandy

Not to get off topic, but you do realize that Hurricane Isaac cost several thousand people their homes and belongings, right? I wouldn't call it a dud. 99% of Metairie and most of New Orleans lost power for that, some for a week or more, and other areas had massive flooding.

Edit (that would be 59,000 homes here) http://bigstory.ap.org/article/isaac-damaged-59000-homes-la

In addition to a few heat-related deaths because of the prolonged power outage (two in my complex alone).

[tolakram]

These GFS runs remind me more and more of what happeneed with Debby last year, where it basically split and reformed under convection and went east, counter to the official forecast.

Nice call Bob, first reformation under way now. The frustrating thing is that once again the GFS saw this 4 days ago, then dropped the idea in favor of the hard right turn.

[northtxboy]

is the gfs still showing a hurricane at landfall?