EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
So can Raymond intensify as it moves westward?
What I find a bit upsetting is that one of the few EPAC missions meets a weakening storm. It isn't a fault of anyone's, but I just see it as a bit depressing, since we will never know Raymond's true intensity, since the Recon wasn't there. Again, I am not saying that anyone caused it.
What I find a bit upsetting is that one of the few EPAC missions meets a weakening storm. It isn't a fault of anyone's, but I just see it as a bit depressing, since we will never know Raymond's true intensity, since the Recon wasn't there. Again, I am not saying that anyone caused it.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
RAYMOND IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. WHILE THE PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 80 KT AT 700 MB...DROPSONDE DATA SHOW THAT
THESE WINDS ARE NOT DOWN TO THE SURFACE VERY EFFECTIVELY...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
SEEN TODAY. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN OPEN EYEWALL...AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER AND THE COLDEST TOPS ARE
NOW LOCATED WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...A
LITTLE BELOW THE TYPICAL RATIO OF PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL TO SURFACE
WINDS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING RAYMOND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AND AFTER A LITTLE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LITTLE
CHANGE IS INDICATED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE
RAYMOND REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER INITIAL
INTENSITY AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
WHILE RAYMOND DRIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE
MOTION IS EXECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE STEERING
FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT AFTER THAT TIME A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD NORTH OF RAYMOND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FASTER
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAY 5 A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BEGIN TO ERODE
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAYMOND TO GAIN
SOME LATITUDE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AFTER THAT
TIME.
REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT
GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 16.3N 101.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 16.1N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 15.9N 103.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 15.7N 104.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.5N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 15.3N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 16.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
RAYMOND IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. WHILE THE PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 80 KT AT 700 MB...DROPSONDE DATA SHOW THAT
THESE WINDS ARE NOT DOWN TO THE SURFACE VERY EFFECTIVELY...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
SEEN TODAY. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN OPEN EYEWALL...AND CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER AND THE COLDEST TOPS ARE
NOW LOCATED WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE
AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...A
LITTLE BELOW THE TYPICAL RATIO OF PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL TO SURFACE
WINDS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING RAYMOND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
AND AFTER A LITTLE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LITTLE
CHANGE IS INDICATED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE
RAYMOND REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER INITIAL
INTENSITY AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
WHILE RAYMOND DRIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE
MOTION IS EXECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE STEERING
FLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT AFTER THAT TIME A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD NORTH OF RAYMOND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FASTER
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAY 5 A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BEGIN TO ERODE
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAYMOND TO GAIN
SOME LATITUDE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AFTER THAT
TIME.
REGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT
GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 22/2100Z 16.3N 101.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 16.1N 102.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 15.9N 103.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 15.7N 104.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.5N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 15.3N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 16.0N 115.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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supercane4867
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
Raymond really need to get himself on the move or will just keep spinning down
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supercane4867
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supercane4867
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
hurricanes1234 wrote:What I find a bit upsetting is that one of the few EPAC missions meets a weakening storm. It isn't a fault of anyone's, but I just see it as a bit depressing, since we will never know Raymond's true intensity, since the Recon wasn't there. Again, I am not saying that anyone caused it.
I understand that feeling at the time when recon reached a sheared TS which was once astonishing Super Hurricane Rick
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hurricanes1234
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:22/1745 UTC 16.4N 101.8W T4.5/4.5 RAYMOND -- East Pacific
Stabilizing.
If we can manage to have a minimal hurricane/strong tropical storm meandering here for a few days, that might seriously increase the ACE. What are the current indications showing?
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
How much longer can Raymond remain stationary? This is one amazing storm. 
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
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RainbowAppleJackDash
Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
hurricanes1234 wrote:How much longer can Raymond remain stationary? This is one amazing storm.
Probbz another 8 hours mate
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Yellow Evan
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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 222345
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
...RAYMOND STILL PARKED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 101.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST. RAYMOND
REMAINS STATIONARY. A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND RAYMOND COULD STILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN
STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SQUALLS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT IF
THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTPZ32 KNHC 222345
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
...RAYMOND STILL PARKED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 101.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.9 WEST. RAYMOND
REMAINS STATIONARY. A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND RAYMOND COULD STILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN
STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SQUALLS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT IF
THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE
INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
ALTHOUGH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF RAYMOND SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DEFINED.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 65 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
THE WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
AFFECTING RAYMOND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS LIKELY
TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING...AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LATEST
GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS ALL WEAKEN RAYMOND TO A LOW-END
TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE ECWMF...GFS...AND
SHIPS MODELS ALL MAINTAIN A STRONGER CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION SINCE RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE IN A FEW DAYS.
FIXES FROM RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RAYMOND HAS
CONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE
HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT...BUT
A MORE PRONOUNCED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE BY TOMORROW MORNING. RAYMOND SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THERE IS NOW MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECST TRACK THAN THERE HAS BEEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SHOULD WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING
RAYMOND TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE CLOSER
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCE.
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE THE THREAT
OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING....THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 101.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 15.9N 102.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.7N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.5N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 15.3N 106.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 14.8N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
ALTHOUGH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN
THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF RAYMOND SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...RECENT
MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DEFINED.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 65 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH
DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. MODERATE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
THE WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
AFFECTING RAYMOND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS LIKELY
TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING...AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LATEST
GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS ALL WEAKEN RAYMOND TO A LOW-END
TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE ECWMF...GFS...AND
SHIPS MODELS ALL MAINTAIN A STRONGER CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION SINCE RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE IN A FEW DAYS.
FIXES FROM RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RAYMOND HAS
CONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE
HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT...BUT
A MORE PRONOUNCED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE BY TOMORROW MORNING. RAYMOND SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THERE IS NOW MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECST TRACK THAN THERE HAS BEEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
LATE IN THE PERIOD...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA SHOULD WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING
RAYMOND TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE CLOSER
TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCE.
ALTHOUGH RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. SINCE THE THREAT
OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING....THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 101.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 15.9N 102.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.7N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.5N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 15.3N 106.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 14.8N 113.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Yellow Evan
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supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Raymond far from done. Is there recon on Wednesday?
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE RAYMOND
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 --
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0217E RAYMOND
C. 23/1300Z
D. 16.1N AND 103.3W
E. 23/1730-2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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supercane4867
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Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Hurricane
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
...RAYMOND STILL STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 101.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013
...RAYMOND STILL STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 101.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
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Yellow Evan
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- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
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- Contact:
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230832
TCDEP2
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013
SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE OF RAYMOND HAS DEGRADED A
LITTLE TONIGHT. THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE IN THE LATEST
MICROWAVE IMAGES...AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME LESS DEFINED
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS DEGRADED
APPEARANCE COULD BE THE RESULT OF COOL WATER THAT HAS BEEN UPWELLED
BENEATH THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 65 KT BASED
ON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...BUT THIS ESTIMATE IS PROBABLY
GENEROUS. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THAT TIME. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN
WHILE RAYMOND MOVES OVER WARM WATER. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL
AIDS AND TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
RAYMOND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
REMAINS LOCATED IN WEAK STEERING BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST
AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY CAUSE RAYMOND TO MOVE
WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO LATER TODAY. A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN RAYMOND REACHES
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 16.0N 101.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 15.8N 102.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.5N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.3N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.1N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 14.6N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 16.0N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
WTPZ42 KNHC 230832
TCDEP2
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013
SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE OF RAYMOND HAS DEGRADED A
LITTLE TONIGHT. THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE IN THE LATEST
MICROWAVE IMAGES...AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME LESS DEFINED
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS DEGRADED
APPEARANCE COULD BE THE RESULT OF COOL WATER THAT HAS BEEN UPWELLED
BENEATH THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 65 KT BASED
ON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...BUT THIS ESTIMATE IS PROBABLY
GENEROUS. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THAT TIME. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN
WHILE RAYMOND MOVES OVER WARM WATER. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL
AIDS AND TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
RAYMOND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
REMAINS LOCATED IN WEAK STEERING BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST
AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY CAUSE RAYMOND TO MOVE
WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO LATER TODAY. A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN RAYMOND REACHES
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0900Z 16.0N 101.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 15.8N 102.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.5N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.3N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.1N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 14.6N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 16.0N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 231146
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013
...RAYMOND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 102.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
RELOCATED TO LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. RAYMOND IS
NOW MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
15 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WHICH
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
WTPZ32 KNHC 231146
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
500 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013
...RAYMOND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM
MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 102.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
RELOCATED TO LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. RAYMOND IS
NOW MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
15 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WHICH
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139604
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013
...RAYMOND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 103.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
15 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WHICH
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT RAYMOND HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS NOT HANDLED THIS
TRANSITION WELL...WITH RAYMOND BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED ON THE
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. A REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH
LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
BROUGHT DOWN TO 50 KT...ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THAT TIME...BUT THIS MIGHT NOT BE LOW
ENOUGH GIVEN THE POOR INITIAL CONDITION OF THE STORM.
THEREAFTER...SOME RESTRENGTHENING SEEMS POSSIBLE DUE TO DECREASING
SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST
SHOWS AN INCREASING TREND IN THE DAYS 3-5 PERIOD...ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 255/7. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AFTER DAY 3...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST DUE TO A TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS DELAYING
THIS TURN A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...PROBABLY DUE TO MORE
SEPARATION BETWEEN RAYMOND AND THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
WERE REQUIRED FOR LATER NHC FORECASTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 15.4N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.1N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.9N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 14.4N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 13.8N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 14.2N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 16.0N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013
...RAYMOND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 103.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST. RAYMOND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO
15 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF GUERRERO. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAYMOND ARE PRODUCING LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO...WHICH
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR
MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT RAYMOND HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS NOT HANDLED THIS
TRANSITION WELL...WITH RAYMOND BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED ON THE
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. A REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH
LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
BROUGHT DOWN TO 50 KT...ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THAT TIME...BUT THIS MIGHT NOT BE LOW
ENOUGH GIVEN THE POOR INITIAL CONDITION OF THE STORM.
THEREAFTER...SOME RESTRENGTHENING SEEMS POSSIBLE DUE TO DECREASING
SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST
SHOWS AN INCREASING TREND IN THE DAYS 3-5 PERIOD...ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 255/7. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A
RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AFTER DAY 3...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST DUE TO A TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS DELAYING
THIS TURN A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...PROBABLY DUE TO MORE
SEPARATION BETWEEN RAYMOND AND THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SOUTHWEST
WERE REQUIRED FOR LATER NHC FORECASTS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 15.4N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.1N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 14.9N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 14.4N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 13.8N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 14.2N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 16.0N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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