WPAC: UTOR - Post-Tropical

[vrif]

TRMM 0811 0622Z pass

Also from HKO..

Code: Select all

THE STANDBY SIGNAL, NO. 1, WAS ISSUED AT 4:05 P.M.

DISPATCHED BY HONG KONG OBSERVATORY AT 16:05 HKT ON 12.08.2013

At 4 p.m., Severe Typhoon Utor was estimated to be about 710 kilometres southeast of Hong Kong (near 17.5 degrees north 118.6 degrees east) and is forecast to move west-northwest at about 22 kilometres per hour across the central part of the South China Sea, in the general direction of the western coast of Guangdong.

As Utor is still at some distance from Hong Kong, local winds will not strengthen significantly before midnight. According to the present forecast track, Utor will gradually edge closer to the south China coast tomorrow. Local winds will strengthen progressively. The Observatory will consider issuing the Strong Wind Signal, No. 3, tomorrow morning. Under the influence of the outer rainband of Utor, local weather will deteriorate tomorrow with heavy squally showers and rough seas.


[Filipinas50]

Latest Image from DOST Aparri Doppler Radar Station Shows Isolated Moderate to Heavy Rains in Northern Luzon from Typhoon Utor's Effect @ 1345 Hours ...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Super Typhoon 'Utor' (Labuyo) near peak intensity.

Personal Estimate: 145 kts (270 km/hr)

[RobWESTPACWX]

Baguio City and Casiguran Damage





Below is the GFS output for Wednesday at 06Z as well. I think its still a little far west



Lastly Im NHKWORLD today, talking about the storm. Will have video next hour 20 after the hour.

Showing the accumulation forecast last hour.

[CrazyC83]

It definitely appears the structure was disrupted over land. Probably about 80 kt right now based on the Dvorak estimates (leaning low due to the larger size and coming off land).

[RobWESTPACWX]

Latest track from JTWC, a little farther west



JMA with a similar forecast.

[vrif]

The 1358Z ASCAT pass.

[CrazyC83]

My best analysis on how the Hong Kong signals are:

Signal 1 - Pre-alert or similar to a Wind Advisory/Small Craft Advisory

Signal 3 - similar to a Tropical Storm Watch

Signal 8 - similar to a Tropical Storm Warning (either with or without a Hurricane Watch attached)

Signals 9 and 10 - similar to a Hurricane Warning

[RobWESTPACWX]

not to bad of a analysis

I just put together a video update on Utor, plus a lot of other information. Its actually rather beefy today.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kuwd7PJJDCg[/youtube]

[vrif]

My best analysis on how the Hong Kong signals are:

Signal 1 - Pre-alert or similar to a Wind Advisory/Small Craft Advisory

Signal 3 - similar to a Tropical Storm Watch

Signal 8 - similar to a Tropical Storm Warning (either with or without a Hurricane Watch attached)

Signals 9 and 10 - similar to a Hurricane Warning

Here is a description of the signals. Residents look forward to signal 8, because they don't have to go to school or work. Then they will go out and enjoy themselves.

http://www.hko.gov.hk/publica/gen_pub/tcws.pdf

1: A tropical cyclone is centred within about 800 kilometres
(km) of Hong Kong and may affect the territory.

3: Strong wind is expected or blowing generally in Hong Kong
near sea level, with a sustained speed of 41-62 kilometres per
hour (km/h), and gusts which may exceed 110 km/h, and the
wind condition is expected to persist.

8: Gale or storm force wind is expected or blowing generally in
Hong Kong near sea level, with a sustained wind speed of
63-117 km/h from the quarter indicated and gusts which may
exceed 180 km/h, and the wind condition is expected to
persist.

9: Gale or storm force wind is increasing or expected to increase
significantly in strength.

10: Hurricane force wind is expected or blowing with sustained
speed reaching upwards from 118 km/h and gusts that may
exceed 220 km/h.

[vrif]

Outerbands on the radar

[CrazyC83]

My best analysis on how the Hong Kong signals are:

Signal 1 - Pre-alert or similar to a Wind Advisory/Small Craft Advisory

Signal 3 - similar to a Tropical Storm Watch

Signal 8 - similar to a Tropical Storm Warning (either with or without a Hurricane Watch attached)

Signals 9 and 10 - similar to a Hurricane Warning

Here is a description of the signals. Residents look forward to signal 8, because they don't have to go to school or work. Then they will go out and enjoy themselves.

http://www.hko.gov.hk/publica/gen_pub/tcws.pdf

1: A tropical cyclone is centred within about 800 kilometres
(km) of Hong Kong and may affect the territory.

3: Strong wind is expected or blowing generally in Hong Kong
near sea level, with a sustained speed of 41-62 kilometres per
hour (km/h), and gusts which may exceed 110 km/h, and the
wind condition is expected to persist.

8: Gale or storm force wind is expected or blowing generally in
Hong Kong near sea level, with a sustained wind speed of
63-117 km/h from the quarter indicated and gusts which may
exceed 180 km/h, and the wind condition is expected to
persist.

9: Gale or storm force wind is increasing or expected to increase
significantly in strength.

10: Hurricane force wind is expected or blowing with sustained
speed reaching upwards from 118 km/h and gusts that may
exceed 220 km/h.

Why would they enjoy themselves? It would be too dangerous to go anywhere once you get that far, certainly to high 8 or 9 level...

[vrif]

Why would they enjoy themselves? It would be too dangerous to go anywhere once you get that far, certainly to high 8 or 9 level...

Essentially it becomes free time. Some restaurants, Karaoke places, and Cinema's are open. MTR is run at a reduced service level, so people can still move around the city. Thankfully most people will heed the warning and head home.

[RL3AO]

Utor is starting to see again

[Typhoon Hunter]

Why would they enjoy themselves? It would be too dangerous to go anywhere once you get that far, certainly to high 8 or 9 level...

Typhoons are part of the culture here in HK and in other parts of the Wpac. Usually the typhoons blow past to the south, we get some gales, everyone has a day off and is happy and no major problems. There's even a bar in Wanchai called Typhoon which offers free drinks deal when it's T8!

However Hong Kong hasn't been properly eyewalled for many years so I do worry when a serious storm moves in, and that will happen sooner or later, some people will treat it as a game. Vicente last year was a swipe, yes it was a T10 but it was nowhere near a proper eyewalling, so HK really dodged a bullet then.

Back to Utor, looks like we're about to get squalled here. I'm going to catch a rather bumpy ferry to Zhuhai this afternoon and then proceed west up the coast to try and catch Utor in Guangdong!

[Alyono]

looks like it is about 105KT again. This reintensified far faster than I expected it to

[RL3AO]

looks like it is about 105KT again. This reintensified far faster than I expected it to

Eye has warmed very quickly. Looks like black (BD) surrounds the eye now too.

[Sanibel]

Strengthening from the satellite look of it.

[vrif]

JTWC is forecasting Utor to re-intensify into a CAT 4.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Theres a place where you can get free drinks at T8?? HMM thats a fun business idea.