ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[northtxboy]

If chantal is gone what do we do now?

You already asked this about 20 minutes ago and got several responses.

Well thanks for pointing that out for me.... I hit the back button and it reposted my bad hope I didnt ruin ur day

[jlauderdal]

Chantal swallowed Hispaniola!!

Latest SSD numbers for Chantal...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
10/1745 UTC [b]17.8N 71.4W OVERLAND CHANTAL
10/1145 UTC 15.6N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 CHANTAL
10/0545 UTC 15.7N 67.3W T1.0/2.0 CHANTAL[/b]

That's interesting, maybe they are tracking the mid level??

Its a shallow system now, should do ok over land. and its moving quick so back out to the water soon.

[jlauderdal]

If chantal is gone what do we do now?

You already asked this about 20 minutes ago and got several responses.

Well thanks for pointing that out for me.... I hit the back button and it reposted my bad hope I didnt ruin ur day

Palm Beach County folk get a little cranky sometimes, no worries

[Blown Away]

Latest SSD numbers for Chantal...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
10/1745 UTC [b]17.8N 71.4W OVERLAND CHANTAL
10/1145 UTC 15.6N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 CHANTAL
10/0545 UTC 15.7N 67.3W T1.0/2.0 CHANTAL[/b]

Based on that position, whatever they are tracking is moving NNW??

[jlauderdal]

Latest SSD numbers for Chantal...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
10/1745 UTC [b]17.8N 71.4W OVERLAND CHANTAL
10/1145 UTC 15.6N 71.0W T1.5/1.5 CHANTAL
10/0545 UTC 15.7N 67.3W T1.0/2.0 CHANTAL[/b]

Based on that position, whatever they are tracking is moving NNW??

looks like it will shoot the gap

[ozonepete]

18z Best Track downgrades to disturbance.

AL, 03, 2013071018, , BEST, 0, 165N, 730W, 40, 1012, DB

That's the best indication we have on what the 5pm advisory will say.

But that LLC position is bogus - there's no way...

[Gustywind]

Here is a video (local TV Martinica) of the effects of TS Chantal in Guadeloupe.
http://guadeloupe.la1ere.fr/emissions/j ... direct-ici

[meriland23]

And nhc says it is moving west? lol

[meriland23]

is there any significance to this burst of convection it has been firing lately?

[LtDanOhh]

just found this website, great info even though I don't know half the terms. I live in South Florida so I'm wondering what to expect from Chantal in terms of rain and wind and when (estimate time/day) to expect feeling the effects of Chantal.

[northtxboy]

If chantal is gone what do we do now?

well with a population of about 200 in windom, tx im not quite sure what you will be doing but we will be watching this energy split that happened and see what happens..maybe you and Rock will get some moisture from the left overs...otherwise not much on the tropical map for your part of the world for now

hey it rained on me today!! and I live in Pearland population of 90,000 fighting Oilers.....

We have cows and one flashing light.

[BlueWater36]

just found this website, great info even though I don't know half the terms. I live in South Florida so I'm wondering what to expect from Chantal in terms of rain and wind and when (estimate time/day) to expect feeling the effects of Chantal.

Hi LtDanOhh, Welcome! I'm in the same boat as you; I don't understand half the terms yet I find myself addicted to this website! As for south florida goes, it looks like it will just be a rain event over the weekend. I'm not knowledgable enough to say much more than that and I could very well be wrong as things change quickly.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

just found this website, great info even though I don't know half the terms. I live in South Florida so I'm wondering what to expect from Chantal in terms of rain and wind and when (estimate time/day) to expect feeling the effects of Chantal.

Welcome to the forum! Right now, South Florida is looking at an impact throughout Friday and Saturday. Right now we shouldn't expect anything more than rain (which we are used to) with perhaps some higher wind gusts than we normally get, but nothing out of the ordinary. Nothing we aren't used to in SFL.

[hurricanekid416]

If the MLC is moving more north and it redevelops as the llc dies then it would mean a stronger storm for Florida right

[ronjon]

12z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013071012-chantal03l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Weatherboy1]

Hard to say what, if anything, becomes of Chantal down the road. It really, truly is impossible to say until/unless a new, trackable, sustainable LLC forms. We get one of those that pops off the north side of Hispanola or Cuba - coupled with a slower forward motion and only moderate shear conditions -- and she could regenerate as a decent TS. If the whole cloud mass just trucks WNW and no new LLC pops, then it's just a rainy day here in FL eventually. Time will tell!

[tgenius]

In a nutshell, this means my commute to work is going to be miserable. :/

[Hurricaneman]

If the MLC is moving more north and it redevelops as the llc dies then it would mean a stronger storm for Florida right

It could, it depends on the shear pattern.

If any storm can teach us a lesson on that if its got a moderate to strong MLC that it could make a comeback like Jeanne in 2004 but Chantal will probably at most be a mid grade tropical storm in Florida and most likely amount to alot of rain and not alot of wind


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ozonepete]

is there any significance to this burst of convection it has been firing lately?

hi meriland! Big bursts of convection are always significant for a forming or struggling system. If the convection is widespread, concentrated and most important, persistent for many hours, then it indicates strengthening is likely or happening. If it bursts up and dies on and off that's not so positive for strengthening. It is the most important thing to watch for with this system for the next 24 hours since persistent widespread convection means the mid-level center is intact and if the mid-level center gets out over warm water and there's low or no sear, it has a good chance at redeveloping.

[cycloneye]

Here is the 18z update 72 hour forecast by TAFB. I know many will open their eyes about that arrow.