ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[artist]

EMCWF 12z 72 hours

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmmm looks like things "may" be starting to organize somewhat in the GOM. I'm curious to see where this will finally consolidate.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html


http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[wxman57]

Looking pretty disorganized. GFS is a good bit faster with the low moving across north Florida than the Euro (6 hours faster). GFS has it inland by about 48 hrs from now. Euro about 54 hours from now. Probably somewhere in between the two (late Thursday afternoon or early evening). Doesn't look like it will be a big wind maker. Some 25-30 kt SE winds into the central to lower FL Peninsula tomorrow/Thursday as the low moves toward the coast. It may be merging with a weak frontal boundary by the time it reaches Florida. Only a rainfall threat, primarily from tomorrow afternoon until Friday morning.

[tgenius]

Welcome to the new season

All this talk of rain for SFL and hasn't rained much at all.

I don't believe it was forecasted until late Wednesday, early Thursday. It's coming.....

Oh yeah? I remember reading a Hydrologic report saying heavy rain Tues-Thurs.. probably things have changed.

So tomorrow is a rainy day.. lovely.

[gatorcane]

Judging by the SAT images, looks like it could be argued this is already a depression. Still thinking the NHC is being a bit conservative with their development chances at only 40% until last advisory. Looks at least 50% if not more to me right now. You got to think it goes to code RED at 8pm outlook.

[cycloneye]

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue2 min
91L is doing a fair job battling dry air & some vertical shear. If org trend continues, then we get a subtropical or half-tropical storm

[Stormcenter]

Any guesses as to where the center will eventually form if this does develop?


http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[ozonepete]

Looking pretty disorganized. GFS is a good bit faster with the low moving across north Florida than the Euro (6 hours faster). GFS has it inland by about 48 hrs from now. Euro about 54 hours from now. Probably somewhere in between the two (late Thursday afternoon or early evening). Doesn't look like it will be a big wind maker. Some 25-30 kt SE winds into the central to lower FL Peninsula tomorrow/Thursday as the low moves toward the coast. It may be merging with a weak frontal boundary by the time it reaches Florida. Only a rainfall threat, primarily from tomorrow afternoon until Friday morning.

I agree. Forget about an LLC for the time being - just multiple small ones popping up and dissipating. The bigger problem is it's still having trouble getting a clear MLC. But still there's no reason it can't make depression tomorrow. But a TS? I still say it's a longshot or 50/50 at best. And I agree no matter how far it gets this will not be a wind maker. But flooding rains for the entire eastern seaboard could be quite a problem.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Welcome to the new season

All this talk of rain for SFL and hasn't rained much at all.

You have the right,

other than yesterday afternoon here in Westchester one heavy down pour, and nothing else but a little sprinkle.

[psyclone]

RPM into Appalachicola.....


https://twitter.com/spann/status/341939 ... 13/photo/1

What's kind of intriguing is that if this does develope in to a TS and move towards the northern FL Panhandle the weather obviously is all going to be displaced well to the East so it's conceivable that we could have the COC come as close as say 50-75 miles of us yet experience no impacts whatsoever from this.

that's true. you'd likely get much more rain 150 miles east of the center than 25 miles west of the center. to get heavy rain, you need the center to pass to your west and if it's by a large margin you should still do well.

[floridasun78]

know their saying most rain fell north of naple to big bend how look now south fl will not get big amount forecast on sunday

[ozonepete]

Having said all I said so far, this is clearly having a strong go at organizing. Convection has been at the upswing all afternoon and nighttime cooling with dropping shear should certainly help it out a lot. Seems like each new flare-up of convection aids a COC a little more to the NNE. Aric, do you see a clear MLC yet?

(Amended to add that each new LLC seems to be forming more to the ENE.)

[blp]

I think this is recent but I forget which time is the right one.

[cycloneye]

I think this is recent but I forget which time is the right one.

http://imageshack.us/a/img560/5674/imagezcg.jpg

This pass was at 18:01 UTC or 2:01 EDT.

[Aric Dunn]

Having said all I said so far, this is clearly having a strong go at organizing. Convection has been at the upswing all afternoon and nighttime cooling with dropping shear should certainly help it out a lot. Seems like each new flare-up of convection aids a COC a little more to the NNE. Aric, do you see a clear MLC yet?

Yeah the earlier MLC seems to have weakened. the area i circled appears to be another... things are definitely getting better. though very much not stacked. though with the lowering shear I would expect a more established llc take shape in the convection night. the convergence line has become more defined. it still may mean the vort that spit out may get pulled back along that line like a yoyo back into the convection.

[blp]

I think this is recent but I forget which time is the right one.

http://imageshack.us/a/img560/5674/imagezcg.jpg

This pass was at 18:01 UTC or 2:01 EDT.

Thanks I always forget it is the one at the bottom.

[Evil Jeremy]

A very clear LLC around 24.2N 88.3W, but is that the COC or just another vortex being spat out?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 91L

[TheStormExpert]

Updated Rainfall Forecast for Florida through this week from TWC (As of Tues. afternoon).

[Aric Dunn]

shear continuing to drop. now nearly all under 20kts with ares under 10kts towards the south