ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Very juicy air in the east GOM.

Huge area of 4000 CAPE and TPW is showing a saturated boundary layer.

Not often see it like this. Usually, CAPE doesn't get above 2000.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... 5388047176

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

[GCANE]

There goes the flare over Cuba, right on schedule.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Alyono]

this would be totally incorrect if they call this Dorian

This was convection associated with the upper low. It is CLEARLY not related in any way to Dorian

[Senobia]

Cycloneye adds S2k Disclaimer.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Obviously, I'm not a pro met, and my predictions should be taken with a grain of salt
HRS
12: 30kts
24: 45kts
48: 60kts
72: 65kts
96: 65kts
120:75kts

http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/2899/3c0.png

How likely is this scenario, anyone? I don't know which steering currents and such are in place. Maybe someone else does.

[GCANE]

OK, make that 4500 CAPE - dang, the Loop Current is cranking.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... 5388717197

[cycloneye]

If anyone wants to comment to NHC about this not being Dorian you can contact them.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/contact.shtml

[Hurricane Alexis]

this would be totally incorrect if they call this Dorian

This was convection associated with the upper low. It is CLEARLY not related in any way to Dorian

Maybe they have a change of heart and name it Erin if it develops? I did see a post about how it was re declared 91L which makes you believe it'll probably be called Dorian.

[floridasun78]

Floaters will be up soon....not working right now. interesting remarks from the update.

REMARKS...VIS LOOP SHOWS LOW LEVEL CENTERS TRYING TO FORM ON THE LESS
SIDE OF ANDROS ISLAND (LIKELY ISLAND DRIVEN MORE THAN CONNECTIVELY DRIVEN
LOWERING OF THE PRESSURE ATTM)...HOWEVER PERSISTENT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MAY AID PRESSURE LOWERING FOR A BETTER MORE PERSISTENT CLOSED
LLC LATER IN TIME AS THE PEAK OF THE WAVE PASSES WEST OF THE ISLANDS.
STILL CONVECTIVE WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 TO WARRANT A DT OF 1.0 AND INITIAL
CLASSIFICATION. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

were did you get update at?

[ROCK]

only slight model support....if you can call it that... cant believe we are watching whats left of a ULL....we must be desperate...

[GCANE]

1C warm core - nice presentation


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 5_TANO.GIF

[ROCK]

Floaters will be up soon....not working right now. interesting remarks from the update.

REMARKS...VIS LOOP SHOWS LOW LEVEL CENTERS TRYING TO FORM ON THE LESS
SIDE OF ANDROS ISLAND (LIKELY ISLAND DRIVEN MORE THAN CONNECTIVELY DRIVEN
LOWERING OF THE PRESSURE ATTM)...HOWEVER PERSISTENT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MAY AID PRESSURE LOWERING FOR A BETTER MORE PERSISTENT CLOSED
LLC LATER IN TIME AS THE PEAK OF THE WAVE PASSES WEST OF THE ISLANDS.
STILL CONVECTIVE WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 TO WARRANT A DT OF 1.0 AND INITIAL
CLASSIFICATION. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

were did you get update at?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/91L.html

[Hurricane Alexis]

If this moves through SFL I think the impacts would be the same whether it was named or not.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[GCANE]

Max winds at 10km altitude, still mid-level.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 5_VGRD.GIF


If this is really west of Andros, steering is weak.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8dlm2.GIF

[floridasun78]

Floaters will be up soon....not working right now. interesting remarks from the update.

REMARKS...VIS LOOP SHOWS LOW LEVEL CENTERS TRYING TO FORM ON THE LESS
SIDE OF ANDROS ISLAND (LIKELY ISLAND DRIVEN MORE THAN CONNECTIVELY DRIVEN
LOWERING OF THE PRESSURE ATTM)...HOWEVER PERSISTENT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MAY AID PRESSURE LOWERING FOR A BETTER MORE PERSISTENT CLOSED
LLC LATER IN TIME AS THE PEAK OF THE WAVE PASSES WEST OF THE ISLANDS.
STILL CONVECTIVE WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 TO WARRANT A DT OF 1.0 AND INITIAL
CLASSIFICATION. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

were did you get update at?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/91L.html

ty

[wxman57]

Cycloneye adds S2k Disclaimer.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Obviously, I'm not a pro met, and my predictions should be taken with a grain of salt
HRS
12: 30kts
24: 45kts
48: 60kts
72: 65kts
96: 65kts
120:75kts

http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/2899/3c0.png

How likely is this scenario, anyone? I don't know which steering currents and such are in place. Maybe someone else does.

Pure fantasy. There is absolutely nothing to indicate such a track/intensity.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

If anyone wants to comment to NHC about this not being Dorian you can contact them.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/contact.shtml

Does NHC have their criteria posted anywhere for renaming/reusing regenerated storm names?

[Sanibel]

I was watching this from New York wondering if I'd have to rush back.


I knew that derned thing would find favorability further west. Dried out, ULL'ed down, but back in business! Ha ha.

[ROCK]

outflow boundaries vomiting up = not good for low level circulation....

[fci]

If anyone wants to comment to NHC about this not being Dorian you can contact them.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/contact.shtml

Does NHC have their criteria posted anywhere for renaming/reusing regenerated storm names?

Here is their response via their Facebook Page posted as a comment:

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center The NWS Directive states that "Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name." This language is a little ambiguous about what happens when there is more than one remnant (if, for example, a low-level remnant and a mid-level remnant separate). However, in such a case, we follow the primary remnant, which would almost always be considered the lower-level feature.

The reason that 2005's TD Twelve was not renamed TD Ten was because the primary remnant - the low-level circulation - of TD Ten had moved on and was not involved in the genesis of TD Twelve. In the case of Dorian, on the other hand, we're still dealing with the same low-level vorticity feature.

[wxman57]

If anyone wants to comment to NHC about this not being Dorian you can contact them.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/contact.shtml

Does NHC have their criteria posted anywhere for renaming/reusing regenerated storm names?

There must be some identifiable and trackable surface feature. They stretched that rule a bit when they renamed Ivan as Ivan once it emerged into the Atlantic. They said they could track part of the low-level vorticity. But I don't think even that is possible with Dorian.