ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Alexis]

I think if this system does regenerate it might head west once it's north of south florida clearly it's a north motion now

The path to the north is closing quicker than you might think. Check out the steering currents:
6 hours ago: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... m=&time=-2
3 hours ago: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... m=&time=-1
Now: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... &prod=dlm1

The weakness will be filled in quickly.

As for the northern movement today, that's more of convection refiring. The MLC is still over Hispaniola, hasn't moved much all day.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480

Miami NWS says it's moving N/NW towards the Bahamas and won't have much of an effect in Florida in terms of rain.

[wxman57]

Follow the squalls - there's no center. Squalls are moving north into the eastern Bahama. If any redevelopment occurs it will be near those squalls. East of Florida in the Bahamas or north of the Bahamas.

[jlauderdal]

Follow the squalls - there's no center. Squalls are moving north into the eastern Bahama. If any redevelopment occurs it will be near those squalls. East of Florida in the Bahamas or north of the Bahamas.

NHC put down a good track several days ago, they probably didn't think it was going to be a track for squalls but nonetheless they had the right idea of bringing this thing well east of the penninsula

[Blown Away]

Follow the squalls - there's no center. Squalls are moving north into the eastern Bahama. If any redevelopment occurs it will be near those squalls. East of Florida in the Bahamas or north of the Bahamas.

Does appear to be rotation over E Haiti, nothing at the surface.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

Remains at 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF CHANTAL EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF REGENERATION AT THIS TIME AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN HOSTILE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS...ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND FRIDAY
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[floridasun78]

it look like CHANTAL dead for good

[gigabite]

What if it gets caught up in that upper level circulation embedded in that front getting ready to move off the coast now?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[Gustywind]

Tropical Update
Michael Lowry, Hurricane Expert, The Weather Channel
Jul 11, 2013 6:59 am ET
CHANTAL'S REMNANT

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

As discussed most of the week U.S. impacts from Chantal would be predicated on a closed circulation center. Chantal finally succumbed to the factors working against it today, and Hurricane Hunters were unable to find a defined low-level circulation. Without this closed circulation, what are now the remnants of Chantal will not strengthen. Reorganization of the circulation looks unlikely over the next day or two as a hostile environment persists, but by the end of the week the atmospheric conditions near the remnants of Chantal begin to improve.

Regardless of redevelopment, the remnants of Chantal are bringing heavy rainfall to the Dominican Republic and Haiti, with an estimated 4-6 inches of rainfall already having fallen along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. These rains will spread across eastern Cuba tomorrow then possibly mix with a frontal zone by the weekend to enhance thunderstorms across the southeast U.S.

[adam0983]

Dr. McCoy your work is done here. Good Job Bones on to the next storm.

[tolakram]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

Very broad MLC moving very slowly NNW. Once the MLC moves away from Hispaniola maybe we will see convection refire because Hispaniola is choking it off now. Low probability but IMO the convection will start building once it moves farther N. This is just my opinion...

[shortwave]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

I would put that circle further north around the southeastern Bahaman Islands. Seems to be the focal point for the most convection currently. Looks to be where the most convergence is happening with upper divergence except on the sw side.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

I would put that circle further north around the southeastern Bahaman Islands. Seems to be the focal point for the most convection currently. Looks to be where the most convergence is happening with upper divergence except on the sw side.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Agree, I could havd made the circle bigger, the circulation is very broad, but IMO most of the general rotation is occuring over Haiti.

[wxman57]

Bones shut down Chantal's life support and its clear the storm can't continue without it. Maybe a bit of rain for the Carolinas. Looks like the upper low over southern Florida is helping tear what's left of Chantal apart.

[Riptide]

Little burst of convection over Long Island. Let's see what happens today.

[Dean4Storms]

Bones shut down Chantal's life support and its clear the storm can't continue without it. Maybe a bit of rain for the Carolinas. Looks like the upper low over southern Florida is helping tear what's left of Chantal apart.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/itsdeadjim.jpg

Agree, this Storm is history.

[otowntiger]

it look like CHANTAL dead for good

Indeed.

[Riptide]

Bones shut down Chantal's life support and its clear the storm can't continue without it. Maybe a bit of rain for the Carolinas. Looks like the upper low over southern Florida is helping tear what's left of Chantal apart.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/itsdeadjim.jpg

Agree, this Storm is history.

Well, Chantal did run full-speed ahead into the shredder. It was obvious this had no chance from the start and it's early July. However, the area that Chantal is moving towards is a different regime with diminishing trade winds....shear will need to ease off a bit.

[northjaxpro]

Ahh, Bones has made his appearance. That means this is really dead now lol....

[tailgater]

Naked swirl SW of Jamaica and a burst between Jamaica and southern coast of Cuba. Bones are you sure she's dead?