ATL: INGRID - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
HurriGuy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 734
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:43 pm
Location: Prairieville, LA

#341 Postby HurriGuy » Thu Sep 12, 2013 2:41 pm

I think for those 2 GFS models to come true, there would have to a pretty big ridege of high pressure over Florida. LOL
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5276
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#342 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 12, 2013 2:51 pm

Would also have to stay in the Gulf another 9 days for that to verify :lol: .
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BreinLa
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 1967
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 12:18 pm
Location: Lafayette, La.
Contact:
Contact BreinLa

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#343 Postby BreinLa » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:03 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:FYI purposes...GFS 12z ensembles


:-o Well there is a glimmer of hope with the GFS ensemble Euro that some of Texas may receive beneficial rain.


And a glimmer of hope of a major hurricane going over my house :eek: . LOL what the heck is that about?



Huh yea and over mine too
0 likes   
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#344 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:20 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:FYI purposes...GFS 12z ensembles


:-o Well there is a glimmer of hope with the GFS ensemble Euro that some of Texas may receive beneficial rain.


And a glimmer of hope of a major hurricane going over my house :eek: . LOL what the heck is that about?


That is my favorite run, lol. I love how it goes into Mexico and strengthens over land before heading to Louisiana.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143867
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#345 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:27 pm

12z GFS Ensembles.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 62
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#346 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:30 pm

I do not have a direct link as I saw this on the local KHOU forum, but the 12z Euro ensembles show a more significant northward zone for potential landfall. Even more so than the 0z Euro ensembles. Discuss ...
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Top
User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4811
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#347 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:45 pm

The 12z GFS operational model lies on the south side of the ensemble guidance.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 38
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#348 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:47 pm

12zECMWF Ensemble Spread in 72 hours....The Ensemble Means are NE of Tampico.

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us


12zECMWF Ensemble Spread in 120 hours...NE Mexico.
Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

In the longer range its in my opinion that a few of the ECMWF Ensembles go rogue and move TD10 Northward towards Texas. I wish I could see each individual member like the GFS Ensemble lol
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#349 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:48 pm

Portastorm wrote:I do not have a direct link as I saw this on the local KHOU forum, but the 12z Euro ensembles show a more significant northward zone for potential landfall. Even more so than the 0z Euro ensembles. Discuss ...


just looked at the actual ensembles. The greatest probs are well south of the border
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#350 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:52 pm

Alyono wrote:
Portastorm wrote:I do not have a direct link as I saw this on the local KHOU forum, but the 12z Euro ensembles show a more significant northward zone for potential landfall. Even more so than the 0z Euro ensembles. Discuss ...


just looked at the actual ensembles. The greatest probs are well south of the border



true but the point being they are creeping up the coast some....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 62
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#351 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 12, 2013 4:56 pm

ROCK wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Portastorm wrote:I do not have a direct link as I saw this on the local KHOU forum, but the 12z Euro ensembles show a more significant northward zone for potential landfall. Even more so than the 0z Euro ensembles. Discuss ...


just looked at the actual ensembles. The greatest probs are well south of the border



true but the point being they are creeping up the coast some....


Exactly! That and the spread in the ensembles for 12z was greater than 0z. I just found it interesting and worthy of discussion. Personally I still see this hitting somewhere between Tampico and San Ferdnand.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#352 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:00 pm

I am thinking anywhere from SW LA to Tampico....just to be safe. That covers the NAVGEM solution and every model below that... :lol: :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#353 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:08 pm

just to clarify.... :D all models agree at 117-144hr the ridge starts to weaken and it is gone by Tuesday- Wednesday....depending if TD10 is inland it might have a chance to sneak up the coast. Also I dont recall the last hurricane I saw miss left in mid-Sept....just my 2 cents...

fuuny how the GFS is notorious for breaking down ridging faster than other models and we are seeing it hold a strong ridge keeping TD 10 south....on the flip side, the EURO loves to over cook a ridge and it is the one more north.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2079
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#354 Postby Blinhart » Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:12 pm

I think no one knows exactly what is going to happen with this system. It could slowly move it's way into Mexico and do nothing to the Continental US or it could meander down in the BoC until it finally feels a weakness in the ridge to the North and end up making landfall by New Orleans. So basically I'm saying we could have a major hurricane making landfall in New Orleans or just having a Tropical Storm making Landfall in Southern Mexico or anything and anywheres in between.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5276
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#355 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:14 pm

18z GFS looks like landfall a little further north...

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#356 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:22 pm

:uarrow: never mind, labreeze got it right...my bad..
Last edited by ROCK on Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#357 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:28 pm

Are the GFS ensembles ran with every operational run? I'm curious to see the latest.
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 62
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re:

#358 Postby Portastorm » Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:30 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Are the GFS ensembles ran with every operational run? I'm curious to see the latest.


Yes, they are run at 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z ... just like the op runs.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: TEN - Models

#359 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:30 pm

18Z GFS more importantly the Texas ridge starts to buckle at 105hr and is gone by 123hr...if this was over water it would be a WHOLE DIFFERENT BALLGAME!!
0 likes   
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

#360 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:44 pm

Is there anything we need to watch for after this? If the ridge is going to be gone 5 days or so, is there a chance something could be coming from the Caribbean that we have to worry about?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 526 guests