ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Very impressive change in the circulation just in the last 6 hours. This has developed very good symmetry on satellite and along with the great upper outflow and being over bathtub water it can quite possibly blow up even with DMIN occurring.

Yep! still not sure if iam seeing correctly though.. is this in the atlantic?

very nice outflow and great symmetry as u stated with plenty of heat content just below.

[chaser1]

Just as a side-note....... In the peculiar event that this system doesnt receive a surprise visit from the "dust fairy", Karen forming could also be indicative of additional development to occur over the next 4-6 weeks. I"m just suggesting that in the event of a healthy "normal" hurricane were to develop, it may be indication that overall conditions have begun to change - at least a little.

Interestingly too, WHAT phase is the MJO in right now??????

[beoumont]

Bomb over circulation center: it appears the pressure has fallen 2+ mb. since recon started this mission 4 hrs ago. (Diurnal??).

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My Opinion on 97L: http://goo.gl/fisrER
Synopsis: 97L is organizing and Hurricane Hunters are finding interesting information.

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[hurricaneCW]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, we've been burnt many times. It looks like an organizing system though, especially on visible but that doesn't mean it will be a significant system. It has yet to be classified.

[Aric Dunn]

recon finding the center on this farther north again.. clearly being pulled to convective burst

[Stormcenter]

Oh I think this is the real deal for "at least" a TD. IMO

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, we've been burnt many times. It looks like an organizing system though, especially on visible but that doesn't mean it will be a significant system. It has yet to be classified.

[CrazyC83]

Oh I think this is the real deal for "at least" a TD. IMO

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, we've been burnt many times. It looks like an organizing system though, especially on visible but that doesn't mean it will be a significant system. It has yet to be classified.

It won't be a TD, since Recon found winds supporting much stronger.

[Dean4Storms]

Gusts to 39kts at the buoy now....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[chaser1]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, we've been burnt many times. It looks like an organizing system though, especially on visible but that doesn't mean it will be a significant system. It has yet to be classified.

Cat. 4 baby! ("the preceeding was a delerious outburst caused by a condition that doctors refer to as, Dryacane-itis.)

[wxman57]

Recon supports about 35 kts. I think there are still a lot of "suspect" SFMR winds, particularly when they're a good bit higher than FL winds.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Bomb over circulation center: it appears the pressure has fallen 2+ mb. since recon started this mission 4 hrs ago. (Diurnal??).

http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/9717/hhmx.jpg

We're approaching diurnal minimum, surrounding atmospheric pressures should be rising instead of falling. The fact that they are decreasing is a sign that 97L is organizing.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon supports about 35 kts. I think there are still a lot of "suspect" SFMR winds, particularly when they're a good bit higher than FL winds.

Yeah the that they just measured was inside that convective burst. 35 to 40kt at the most

[Aric Dunn]

wow the center being pulled very quickly to the n to nne into that convection recon did a quick turn around and the center moved/ reforming north of the previous location..

[wxman57]

I've still seen no evidence from recon of a well-defined LLC. Tropical waves/disturbances can often have TS-force winds in heavier squalls.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Bomb over circulation center: it appears the pressure has fallen 2+ mb. since recon started this mission 4 hrs ago. (Diurnal??).

http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/9717/hhmx.jpg

We're approaching diurnal minimum, surrounding atmospheric pressures should be rising instead of falling. The fact that they are decreasing is a sign that 97L is organizing.

Exactly... But the question is how much did it organize? I'm thinking at least min TS...

[chaser1]

well, "if" and "when" we do finally have a clear defined center to follow, it will be very interesting to then see how the models do with 97L. I certainly would think most would indicate some greater eastward tendancy

[HurricaneTracker2031]

well, "if" and "when" we do finally have a clear defined center to follow, it will be very interesting to then see how the models do with 97L. I certainly would think most would indicate some greater eastward tendancy

How east? Towards NE?

[ozonepete]

Recon supports about 35 kts. I think there are still a lot of "suspect" SFMR winds, particularly when they're a good bit higher than FL winds.

Yeah the that they just measured was inside that convective burst. 35 to 40kt at the most

Well it's a very large system that is only now consolidating a center so those wind speeds make sense at this early stage. Still, it is doing it the "right way".

[wxman57]

well, "if" and "when" we do finally have a clear defined center to follow, it will be very interesting to then see how the models do with 97L. I certainly would think most would indicate some greater eastward tendancy

That will not likely make any difference. Models are already being initialized with a vortex there.