EPAC: RAYMOND - Tropical Storm

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013

THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LARGE CURVED BAND WITH THE CENTER TUCKED
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND...WITH CONVECTION RECENTLY ON
THE INCREASE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE NOT YET CHANGED
APPRECIABLY...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 45 KT. IT IS A
LITTLE BIT OF A MYSTERY WHY RAYMOND HAS NOT INTENSIFIED MUCH...BUT
AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATER...LOW SHEAR...AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR
SHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COULD ALSO PORTEND ANOTHER
STRENGTHENING EPISODE...GIVEN INNER CORE FEATURES SEEN ON EARLIER
MICROWAVE IMAGES. AFTER THE WEEKEND...DECREASING SSTS AND
INCREASING SHEAR WILL LIKELY INDUCE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN. DESPITE
SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN
NOTABLY FROM SIX HOURS AGO WITH NO RELIABLE MODELS SHOWING RAYMOND
BECOMING A HURRICANE AGAIN. GIVEN HOW RELUCTANT RAYMOND HAS BEEN
TO STRENGTHEN...THE NHC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THAT MODEL TREND...BUT
STAY AT OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS TO PRESERVE
SOME CONTINUITY.

RAYMOND CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT. THE STORM SHOULD
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD SOON
AFTERWARD WHILE IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF A RIDGE. AFTER
RECURVATURE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH...THERE
IS A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO A MUCH-WEAKENED
RAYMOND. A MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SLOW EAST TO
SOUTHEAST MOTION IS THE BEST IDEA...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT
RAYMOND WILL LIKELY BE A REMNANT LOW AT THAT TIME. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AT
LONG RANGE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 13.1N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 13.2N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 13.8N 116.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 14.7N 117.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 15.8N 117.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 17.1N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 31/1800Z 17.0N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[hurricanes1234]

Advisory no longer shows a hurricane. The answer, in my opinion, to why Raymond isn't intensifying is because it is 2013. Without last week's unusual coincidence of MJO and Kelvin-wave, this might have just been another struggling system like Narda.

[Cyclenall]

*Image Cut*

Best looking major in the EPAC since 2012. Almost as good as Fransisco looked in the WPAC a couple days back. Tropics have made up for the lost time the past 3 weeks, it's on a roll.

Lol, uh no. Only in the Wpac. If you meant that already then ignore this statement.

I've read the middle of the thread and here are my thoughts: 1. Raymond never had a pinhole eye 2. This emoticon: was abused lol 3. Hurricane Hillary was "better" than Raymond 4. This was not an epic hurricane 5. Epac recon almost never reaches the storm when at its peak, why I don't know because its easily preventable. Only a couple times in all the years watching have I seen a "on time" recon inspection.

The NHC hasn't used wording like "astounding" since Rick '09 I don't think. The first advisory for intensity was off by 40 knots for peak. The NHC finally caught up around Monday morning.

Raymond looked great until yesterday afternoon, when something changed. I knew then if I was a betting man, I'd place $50 on Ray never re-gaining hurricane intensity. I notice most of the time when restrengthening is forecast in the Epac (and this year in the Atlantic), it doesn't pan out. I'd side again with this.

What I see is Raymond has developed a Central Cold Cover Pattern that temporary impedes significant intensification which is typical of early stage TCs

I've never heard of this before, explain? Looked very well organized yesterday morning.

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF WITH 28C
WATER...INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE ONLY IDENTIFIABLE FACTOR SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT IS
THE WARM UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
IS LIKELY WITH RAYMOND PEAKING AT OR NEAR CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
INTENSITY.

The NHC almost never mentions the bolded part. Its related to a stable airmass IIRC. It has semi-good rotation and a new burst near the center wrapping, but the structure is sickly looking. Also some outflow boundaries.

[hurricanes1234]

I used " " because in my opinion, Raymond was a hurricane that made me want to do just that. No other storm in this hurricane season, except for Henriette and Raymond, made me want to scream out in astonishment, since many of them were weak and/or boring. As for Raymond, the structure doesn't look nearly as good as yesterday, it looks shrunken and somewhat starved. I'd put the chances of hurricane strength again at about 10-15% or less, and the chances of reintensification at about 35-50%. BUT I COULD VERY WELL BE WRONG.

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[stormkite]

Raymond is still displaying deep convention the overshooting powerful storm clouds (cold) in the south quadrant are testament to that.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

It actually looks better than today. Could this finally be the incipient stages of reintensification?

[supercane4867]

It actually looks better than today. Could this finally be the incipient stages of reintensification?

Maybe Raymond is trying to wrap up a banding eye feature, we'll see

[supercane4867]

Recent OSCAT shows improvement in structure with the circulation became less elongated

[stormkite]

It actually looks better than today. Could this finally be the incipient stages of reintensification?

My 2 cents Raymond will begin rapid intensification in the next 24/hour.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

EP, 17, 2013102700, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1140W, 50, 999, TS


Back up to 50 knots!

[supercane4867]

TXPZ25 KNES 261858
TCSENP

A. 17E (RAYMOND)

B. 26/1800Z

C. 13.0N

D. 112.8W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DT BACK TO 3.0 OVER 24HRS. MET
IS SAME SO 3.0 AS IS PAT. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

26/1711Z 13.0N 112.7W AMSU


...SWANSON

[supercane4867]

It will be interesting to see how Raymond interact with the coming trough as they will greatly enhance poleward outflow of the storm before inducing windshear.
A hurricane is still achievable if it can organize quickly

[hurricanes1234]

It will be interesting to see how Raymond interact with the coming trough as they will greatly enhance poleward outflow of the storm before inducing windshear.
A hurricane is still achievable if it can organize quickly

A hurricane. O_O

[hurricanes1234]

Much better than twelve hours ago.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Its inner core is much better organized. Its satellite appearance, however, is still less than appealing.

[hurricanes1234]

Its inner core is much better organized. Its satellite appearance, however, is still less than appealing.

I think it's much better looking than today, especially as you mentioned, the inner core features. There is a considerable blowup of convection near or over the center right now.

[supercane4867]

Up to 55kt

EP, 17, 2013102700, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1139W, 55, 997, TS

[supercane4867]

...RAYMOND STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 26
Location: 13.2°N 114.3°W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 PM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013

RAYMOND IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED AN INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS SINCE EARLIER TODAY...WITH A
PRIMARY BAND NOW WRAPPING MORE THAN THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY
AROUND THE CIRCULATION. THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS
TAKEN ON A MORE CIRCULAR SHAPE...AND A 2249 UTC TRMM PASS ALSO
SHOWED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL RING OF CONVECTION...SIGNALING THE
FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB WAS 3.5 AT 0000 UTC...AND ADT VALUES ARE ON THE RISE. BASED
ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 55 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. RAYMOND SHOULD MOVE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF STORM
SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN REACH A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CURRENTLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA EJECTS
EASTWARD. AT THIS POINT...RAYMOND MAY ATTEMPT A RECURVATURE BEFORE
SHEARING APART...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWARD...LIKELY BE DRAWN
IN THIS DIRECTION DUE TO A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.
EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE
THIS CYCLE...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HOLDS THE LINE BY FAVORING THE
MORE EASTERN ECWMF SOLUTION UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT A DEEPER
CYCLONE WOULD TURN MORE SHARPLY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH.

RAYMOND FINALLY APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING TO FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
FACTORS FOR INTENSIFICATION. SINCE THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE UNDER
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND OVER
27-28C WATERS...THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL CHANGES WITHIN THE INNER
CORE SUGGEST THAT RAYMOND WILL LIKELY ACHIEVE HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THIS TIME. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE SUBJECTED
TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR RELATED
TO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A
DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE IN AS SOON AS 72 HOURS. GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS...THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...BUT IS LITTLE CHANGED LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 13.2N 114.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 13.5N 115.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 14.4N 117.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 15.3N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 16.2N 117.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 17.0N 116.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 16.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Satellite appearance caught up quick.