ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[gatorcane]

When was the last time the NHC had 70-80% development chances where a system didn't end up developing?

Just shows how difficult 2013 is to predict for not only humans but the models also (which clearly busted on this one, even the GFS and ECMWF). Despite how great these systems can look, the "2013 factor" seems to come in and rip them apart.

[tropicwatch]

I don't think the front will have any trouble picking up 95L. JMO

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

There is definitely a circulation East of Tampico, but convection is displaced to the South of the system.

[ROCK]

I don't think the front will have any trouble picking up 95L. JMO

http://tropicwatch.info/avn-animated.gif

its not deep enough to pick it up....most guidance washes out the front at the coast and is gone in 2 days.

[stormlover2013]

looks like upper texas/la will be getting alot of rain

[PTrackerLA]

Bring it on! We were just classified under severe drought conditions yesterday so this rain is much needed! Looks to all be coming at once though with quite an interesting setup with a low lingering offshore for several days. Hopefully rainfall totals don't get too crazy.

[wxman57]

I don't think the front will have any trouble picking up 95L. JMO

http://tropicwatch.info/avn-animated.gif

its not deep enough to pick it up....most guidance washes out the front at the coast and is gone in 2 days.

It doesn't matter if its deep or not, the steering flow (with the front moving slower and stalling) will take 95L north to near the lower TX coast tomorrow where it will merge with the frontal boundary and become a west Gulf low, a common occurrence during the fall, winter and spring months in the NW Gulf. A rain maker for SE TX eastward but not a TC threat.

[ROCK]

I don't think the front will have any trouble picking up 95L. JMO

http://tropicwatch.info/avn-animated.gif

its not deep enough to pick it up....most guidance washes out the front at the coast and is gone in 2 days.

It doesn't matter if its deep or not, the steering flow (with the front moving slower and stalling) will take 95L north to near the lower TX coast tomorrow where it will merge with the frontal boundary and become a west Gulf low, a common occurrence during the fall, winter and spring months in the NW Gulf. A rain maker for SE TX eastward but not a TC threat.

yeah I get that....but this front is not going to clean out the GOM and bring forth the westerlies....thats my point.....

How's that 99.9999999% prediction coming? couldnt resist...

[stormlover2013]

now we know this thing will develop now lol, He said 99.9999 it will and it looks like it won't and now he's saying that it won't develop into a TC and watch now it will lol. I am just messing with you!!! Weather is so hard to predict!!!

[ninel conde]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h

http://Weatherbell.com MUCH more concerned about heavy rains in northwest gulf than southern gulf with 95L system will get drawn north!

[Cuda17]

I don't think the front will have any trouble picking up 95L. JMO

http://tropicwatch.info/avn-animated.gif

its not deep enough to pick it up....most guidance washes out the front at the coast and is gone in 2 days.

It doesn't matter if its deep or not, the steering flow (with the front moving slower and stalling) will take 95L north to near the lower TX coast tomorrow where it will merge with the frontal boundary and become a west Gulf low, a common occurrence during the fall, winter and spring months in the NW Gulf. A rain maker for SE TX eastward but not a TC threat.

wxman57,

Why isn't NWS Houston mentioning the possibility of rain continuing past tomorrow morning? I just looked at the AFD out at 10:13 and they're acting like rain will taper off after tomorrow. Am I missing something here? Please advise.

[wxman57]

wxman57,

Why isn't NWS Houston mentioning the possibility of rain continuing past tomorrow morning? I just looked at the AFD out at 10:13 and they're acting like rain will taper off after tomorrow. Am I missing something here? Please advise.

Heaviest rain in Houston/Galveston will be today and Saturday. By early Sunday, the frontal low will be a little SE of Galveston. We'll be on the back-side of the low getting wrap-around clouds and intermittent lighter rain - not the heavy rain of today and tomorrow. That may continue through Monday. Houston NWS office is focusing on the heavier rain period, which WILL be through Saturday. And I'm not sure if the local office is looking at the high-res European model, which I don't think they get. It's the Euro which indicates the light rain continuing into Monday.

[Florida1118]

When was the last time the NHC had 70-80% development chances where a system didn't end up developing?

Just shows how difficult 2013 is to predict for not only humans but the models also (which clearly busted on this one, even the GFS and ECMWF). Despite how great these systems can look, the "2013 factor" seems to come in and rip them apart.

This is the 4th time this year I believe, counting the EPAC and Atlantic.

[ROCK]

the 12Z CMC and 12Z NAVGEM are in good agreement now except maybe intensity. CMC wants a stronger low 997mb whereas the NAV wants a 1004mb....both hug the TX coast and then up into SW LA at 72hrs...

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO down to 20%-30%.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAMPICO...IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SINCE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED...AND THE LOW IS LESS DEFINED...THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT HAS DIMINISHED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...
HOWEVER...COULD STILL FAVOR SOME SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MISSION SCHEDULED
FOR TODAY WAS CANCELLED.

[MGC]

Looks like the area is going to get a good soaking thanks to 95L and a frontal system. Glad 95L didn't get going like a couple of the models did......MGC

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013092018, , BEST, 0, 232N, 972W, 25, 1004, LO

[chaser1]

18z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013092018, , BEST, 0, 232N, 972W, 25, 1004, LO

...and POOF! ("Jim....I think its dead...")

[wxman57]

No chance of development now (.00001%). It's dead. However, it should merge with the front tomorrow off the lower TX coast and give coastal areas of TX and LA some well-needed rainfall over the weekend. No biking for me this weekend.

[supercane]

Chaser, the 0 you highlighted is the tau value for the forecast period, which for the best track is always zero. The quoted best track line still shows a vmax of 25 kt (the number to the right of the longitude). See the ATCF best track format at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/docs/database/new/abrdeck.html.

That being said, 95L does look miserable.