ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Latest TAFB 72 hour forecast places a low just north of the Yucatan with a movement arrow up into the FL big bend. Looks like NHCs thinking has come around to a northern GOM solution now.

Can you post the graphic ronjon?

We've been discussing this in chat.

NHC/TAFB



WPC




NHC has the arrow pointing north. WPC seems to bring the wave west. This is an hour after their coordination call. I'm confused.

[N2FSU]

Thanks!

[Rgv20]

Latest TAFB 72 hour forecast places a low just north of the Yucatan with a movement arrow up into the FL big bend. Looks like NHCs thinking has come around to a northern GOM solution now.

Can you post the graphic ronjon?

We've been discussing this in chat.

NHC/TAFB

[img]http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/RL3AO/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

WPC

[img]http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/RL3AO/9khwbg_conus.gif


NHC has the arrow pointing north. WPC seems to bring the wave west. This is an hour after their coordination call. I'm confused.

Lol I was going to say that, but on WPC discussion it said their conference call with the NHC was Monday August 12.

[ronjon]

Latest TAFB 72 hour forecast places a low just north of the Yucatan with a movement arrow up into the FL big bend. Looks like NHCs thinking has come around to a northern GOM solution now.

Can you post the graphic ronjon?

The moderator posted the graphic but here is the link.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif

[Dean4Storms]

Well at least they have both scenario's covered.

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone else seeing the circulation near 16.5N 83W moving NW?

[tolakram]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

When sped up I believe I see a low level circulation, but it may be in the mid levels.

[NDG]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

When sped up I believe I see a low level circulation, but it may be in the mid levels.

Well defined MLC but circulation at the surface remains broad, I do not see a sign of a LLC, yet.

[tropicwatch]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

When sped up I believe I see a low level circulation, but it may be in the mid levels.

Well defined MLC but circulation at the surface remains broad, I do not see a sign of a LLC, yet.

Does not appear to have made it to the surface yet.

[wxman57]

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

When sped up I believe I see a low level circulation, but it may be in the mid levels.

Well defined MLC but circulation at the surface remains broad, I do not see a sign of a LLC, yet.

Agree on the MLC in that area. Strong rotation, though. I suspect NHC will up the development chances this evening. At least 50%. Should have been there or higher 2 days ago.

[ronjon]

Latest GFS shows two areas of vorticity - one west of JAM and one off the NE coast of NIC. The latter one moves inland as the northern one appears to absorb its energy and move to the NE tip of the Yuc.

850 mb GFS

[ronjon]

The way the convection is blowing up tonight I'm not sure they should have cancelled RECON for tomorrow.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480

[HurricaneDREW92]

The way the convection is blowing up tonight I'm not sure they should have cancelled RECON for tomorrow.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480

Likely they'll reactivate it.

Latest Visible:

[Frank P]

yep, hints of broad type banding developing also to the north and east... looks like it continues to slowly get better organized... my amateur opinion only....

[TheStormExpert]

The way the convection is blowing up tonight I'm not sure they should have cancelled RECON for tomorrow.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480

Yesterday I was shocked that they planned to send RECON out, today I'm shocked they decided to cancel the RECON flight.

[KatDaddy]

Quite a bit more convection this evening across the W Central Caribbean as well as better organization. It will be interesting to see if it has organized additionally overnight as well as the model runs tomorrow morning.

[tropicwatch]

I am kind of surprised that there is no floater yet.

[northjaxpro]

Latest GFS shows two areas of vorticity - one west of JAM and one off the NE coast of NIC. The latter one moves inland as the northern one appears to absorb its energy and move to the NE tip of the Yuc.

850 mb GFS

Yes, I think the vort west of Jamaica will become the dominant one as time progresses.

[CaneCurious]

Latest GFS shows two areas of vorticity - one west of JAM and one off the NE coast of NIC. The latter one moves inland as the northern one appears to absorb its energy and move to the NE tip of the Yuc.

850 mb GFS

Yes, I think the vort west of Jamaica will become the dominant one as time progresses.

If that vort takes charge wouldn't it go more towards he BOC than the Northern Gulf

[ozonepete]

Latest GFS shows two areas of vorticity - one west of JAM and one off the NE coast of NIC. The latter one moves inland as the northern one appears to absorb its energy and move to the NE tip of the Yuc.

850 mb GFS

Yes, I think the vort west of Jamaica will become the dominant one as time progresses.

If that vort takes charge wouldn't it go more towards he BOC than the Northern Gulf

No. If the COC west of Jamaica takes precedence than the mid-level flow will carry it more northwestward to the northern Yucatan. If the COC develops closer to the Nicaragua coast the mid-level flow is more westerly there and will steer it more westward into the BOC.