ATL: KAREN - Models

[Dean4Storms]

As I said earlier, looking more and more like an upper Gulf Coast landfall from whatever develops or doesn't.

[blp]

06z Tropicals:

[img]http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/4506/u441.gif

Big shift from the 18z which had most going into the BOC. The stronger it gets the more of a curve you will see.

[Blown Away]

12z models... Models seem to be agreeing on direction... Seems to be shifting eastward...


12z intensity... Seems NGOM area is hostile per the intensity models... IF 97L were to shift more eastward towards the Florida Peninsula, maybe conditions could be a little better... Definitely have to watch...

[Stormcenter]

It's going to be all about timing as to how far north and west it heads before eventually veering NE. IMO

[cycloneye]

Weak to moderate Tropical Storm on 12z GFS.

[ronjon]

06z GFDL 965 mb and 80 kts into Mobile Bay.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2013100106-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animatio

06z HWRF 970 mb and 80 kts into Gulfport.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013100106-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Me thinks development chances will rise with next NHC outlooks.

[wxman57]

Those GFDL/HWRF intensity forecasts look way too high, given the projected shear the system will be encountering across the northern Gulf. I'd say it has a fair chance of reaching minimal TS strength (35-40 kts) within 48-60 hrs. At landfall, I'd expect at most a sheared TS with all heavy squalls east of the track.

[floridasun78]

06z GFDL 965 mb and 80 kts into Mobile Bay.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2013100106-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animatio

06z HWRF 970 mb and 80 kts into Gulfport.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013100106-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Me thinks development chances will rise with next NHC outlooks.

gfdl link dont work

[wxman57]

GFDL & HWRF animations are here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[floridasun78]

GFDL & HWRF animations are here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

ty

[Dean4Storms]

Those GFDL/HWRF intensity forecasts look way too high, given the projected shear the system will be encountering across the northern Gulf. I'd say it has a fair chance of reaching minimal TS strength (35-40 kts) within 48-60 hrs. At landfall, I'd expect at most a sheared TS with all heavy squalls east of the track.

My thoughts exactly. Could see a 60mph Storm with most all the weather on the eastern periphery. How deep the convection becomes may make a good bit of difference on how much those winds are reflected at the surface instead of just above it.

[northjaxpro]

Those GFDL/HWRF intensity forecasts look way too high, given the projected shear the system will be encountering across the northern Gulf. I'd say it has a fair chance of reaching minimal TS strength (35-40 kts) within 48-60 hrs. At landfall, I'd expect at most a sheared TS with all heavy squalls east of the track.

My thoughts exactly. Could see a 60mph Storm with most all the weather on the eastern periphery. How deep the convection becomes may make a good bit of difference on how much those winds are reflected at the surface instead of just above it.

I am with you and wxman57 about this as well. Dry air and shear will keep this system from really organizing. This will be a lopsided system will most of the action on the eastern periphery. I see at best a 40 kt TS on its approach toward the Big Bend/ FL panhandle late this week. Heavy rain will be the prime threat potentially for the panhandle/ North FL and into portions of GA and later the Carolinas as I think the models will continue to veer more eastward with the track as time progresses.

[gatorcane]

Pretty significant shift east in the 12Z GFS from the 06Z GFS which now moves the system NE towards the big bend of Florida.

I agree with JAX that models will probably shift east more and actually think more of an Eastern Gulf storm here especially if this system gets deeper than forecasted.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blown Away]

Pretty significant shift east in the 12Z GFS from the 06Z GFS which now moves the system NE towards the big bend of Florida.

I agree with JAX that models will probably shift east more and actually think more of an Eastern Gulf storm here especially if this system gets deeper than forecasted.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Since the models have shown a little more depth/stronger system in the past few runs, maybe its the cause of the easward shift in the tracks and maybe if 97L gets stronger Florida will be in the crosshairs??

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS never gets the center of Vorticity any further west than 87.5W before turning it more NE. Wonder if the shear will be less that far east?

[wxman57]

Since the models have shown a little more depth/stronger system in the past few runs, maybe its the cause of the eastward shift in the tracks and maybe if 97L gets stronger Florida will be in the crosshairs??

Florida is already in the crosshairs (panhandle). It won't likely move into the peninsula.

[ronjon]

12z GFS never gets the center of Vorticity any further west than 87.5W before turning it more NE. Wonder if the shear will be less that far east?

Dean see the 200 mb winds I posted from the GFS in 96 hrs in the other thread. Not bad over the eastern GOM.

[blazess556]

12z Euro is coming in with a more concentrated area of vorticity with 97L through 30 hrs.

[Stormcenter]

Correct me if I'm wrong but for the most part the models have been eastward biased with 97L except for the Euro. IMO

Those GFDL/HWRF intensity forecasts look way too high, given the projected shear the system will be encountering across the northern Gulf. I'd say it has a fair chance of reaching minimal TS strength (35-40 kts) within 48-60 hrs. At landfall, I'd expect at most a sheared TS with all heavy squalls east of the track.

My thoughts exactly. Could see a 60mph Storm with most all the weather on the eastern periphery. How deep the convection becomes may make a good bit of difference on how much those winds are reflected at the surface instead of just above it.

I am with you and wxman57 about this as well. Dry air and shear will keep this system from really organizing. This will be a lopsided system will most of the action on the eastern periphery. I see at best a 40 kt TS on its approach toward the Big Bend/ FL panhandle late this week. Heavy rain will be the prime threat potentially for the panhandle/ North FL and into portions of GA and later the Carolinas as I think the models will continue to veer more eastward with the track as time progresses.

[ronjon]

12z HWRF - 990 mb at 50 kts into Pcola.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013100112-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation