ATL: MELISSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

The NHC lowered the forecast a little. They now show a post-tropical cyclone as soon as it begins to weaken, keep it at its forecasted peak for a shorter time, and have just mentioned that the convection is asymmetric. I'd currently give Melissa a 10-15% chance of no further intensification.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hammy]

They now show a post-tropical cyclone as soon as it begins to weaken,

as far as moving up the ET transition that may simply be due to the passage of time, since the forecasts beyond 48 hours are in 24 hour intervals, it could always have been thought to transition right after the 48 hour mark. As far as intensification, I'm withdrawing what I said earlier about the possibility of intensification, as not only are models trending weaker but the ASCAT also does not show as strong of winds as it did earlier.

[HURAKAN]

fishy

[supercane4867]

Convection activity remain unimpressive that the system is still decidedly subtropical at the moment

[Hammy]

Looks like it's about 45-50 mph now, probably weakening further for the next 12-18 hours.

edit: several 55kt barbs on OSCAT http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/oscat_images/cur_golf/zooms/WMBas98.png

[stormkite]

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION 29.7N 54.7W

00UTC 19.11.2013 29.7N 54.7W MODERATE

12UTC 19.11.2013 31.6N 54.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.11.2013 34.0N 52.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.11.2013 36.5N 48.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.11.2013 39.2N 42.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.11.2013 41.4N 36.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Melissa has intensified to a 65 mph subtropical storm. Convection has deepened a little, and I am quite impressed by this still being subtropical, yet fairly close to hurricane strength (74 mph). Also note the pressure of 982 mbar, 2 mbar higher than Henriette in the eastern Pacific earlier this year, when it had just become a Category 2.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track remains as Subtropical.

AL, 14, 2013111912, , BEST, 0, 315N, 547W, 55, 982, SS, 50, NEQ, 100, 100, 50, 60, 1010, 450, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MELISSA, M

[HurrMark]

ACE is still zero. The question is, if this never becomes fully tropical, will it count in the annual statistics. I would think no (1997 had a subtropical storm, but was not counted).

[Alyono]

ACE is still zero. The question is, if this never becomes fully tropical, will it count in the annual statistics. I would think no (1997 had a subtropical storm, but was not counted).

Subtropical storms ARE counted in the season stats, just not ACE

There were 8 storms in 1997, including the subtropical storm

[supercane4867]

With pressure likely to drop below 980mb Melissa is becoming the deepest storm of the season

[CrazyC83]

Crazy that a November high-latitude hybrid will be the strongest storm of the season pressure-wise...

[HurrMark]

ACE is still zero. The question is, if this never becomes fully tropical, will it count in the annual statistics. I would think no (1997 had a subtropical storm, but was not counted).

Subtropical storms ARE counted in the season stats, just not ACE

There were 8 storms in 1997, including the subtropical storm

Ah OK, I was just going by Wikipedia. So in other words, all this storm is going to do is lower the average ACE/storm?

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if this could gain 65 kt+ winds while remaining subtropical...now that would be a rarity to have a hurricane of subtropical status...

[Hammy]

I wonder if this could gain 65 kt+ winds while remaining subtropical...now that would be a rarity to have a hurricane of subtropical status...

I believe that if a system becomes a hurricane while it is subtropical it is automatically designated as tropical and thus becomes a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track remains as Subtropical.

AL, 14, 2013111918, , BEST, 0, 324N, 544W, 55, 982, SS

[Cyclenall]

ACE is still zero. The question is, if this never becomes fully tropical, will it count in the annual statistics. I would think no (1997 had a subtropical storm, but was not counted).

Subtropical storms ARE counted in the season stats, just not ACE

There were 8 storms in 1997, including the subtropical storm

That's the way I like it, because I don't want any more ACE padders for this season...leave it so future generations can see how awful it was.

Ah OK, I was just going by Wikipedia. So in other words, all this storm is going to do is lower the average ACE/storm?

I guess so lol.

I wonder if this could gain 65 kt+ winds while remaining subtropical...now that would be a rarity to have a hurricane of subtropical status...

I want to see a subtropical hurricane, I don't think its happened before. Along with it being the lowest in pressure (a guess) of the season, this would be the only interesting S/TC in the Atlantic during 2013...of course in mid November. Sucky seasons usually do this (think Ida of 2009).

I believe that if a system becomes a hurricane while it is subtropical it is automatically designated as tropical and thus becomes a hurricane.

Source? This doesn't make logical sense, there are extratropical storms that are 65 knots and "subtropical" storms at that intensity are possible.

[supercane4867]

I wonder if this could gain 65 kt+ winds while remaining subtropical...now that would be a rarity to have a hurricane of subtropical status...

I believe that if a system becomes a hurricane while it is subtropical it is automatically designated as tropical and thus becomes a hurricane.

Subtropical Storm One (1979) - 65kt

[hurricanes1234]

I'd personally give Melissa a 30% chance of no more strengthening. If by 3z, the intensity is the same (which I am pretty sure it would be), I will increase the chances of no more strengthening by 15-20%. With waning convection and barely any time left, the prospects of further deepening, in my opinion, are becoming less realistic. I still think it can strengthen, like this morning, when diurnal maximum arrives again, but after that, it's probably going to go downhill due to shear, etc.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

I hope Melissa isn't getting crushed or elongated. That wouldn't be good, because it would mean that it's weakening.