ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[Gustywind]

There was just a pretty loud clap of thunder. It's overcast and we recently had very heavy rain with winds gusting strongly from the west. (I suspect that the wind direction may have been just a local effect of the nearby cumulonimbus.)

Anyway, I'm shutting down and unplugging this computer to protect it.

Abajan we aware. As Cycloneye mentionned it as possible keep us informed but do not take any risks.

[Gustywind]

SSD numbers.

02/1745 UTC 14.0N 59.7W TOO WEAK 97L
02/1145 UTC 14.3N 59.4W TOO WEAK 97L

[SeGaBob]

Convection seems to be increasing somewhat but it's kind of hard (for me anyway) to spot any rotation with it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

It should be noted that this is my opinion and NOT a forecast.

[gatorcane]

Latest animated VIS GIF shows convection is on the increase around the low-level center and that is a good sign as we wouldn't expect that as we approach DMIN. The circulation looks vigorous to me. Let's see if it can slowly mix out the dry air.

18Z Best Track:

At 1800 UTC, 02 September 2013, LOW INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.3°N and 60°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 4 kt at a bearing of 270 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

[alienstorm]

I would say just of Martinique 14.5 60.7

[abajan]

The thunderstorm abated soon after I posted and it turns I didn't have to turn off the computer after all. It's currently overcast but there's no rain or wind.

[Hurricaneman]

Radar is showing a strong vortmax north of Martinique

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

http://i40.tinypic.com/hugci0.jpg

[cycloneye]

Couple of tweets by Levi Cowan.

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 2h
Low pressure keeps feeding back to the east and keeping 97L from entering the Caribbean. The longer it waits, the more latitude it will gain.

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 21m
Not entirely sure why NHC says mid-level dry air is 97L's problem. 12z soundings showed 700mb RH is 75% in Barbados, 66% in Gaudeloupe.


This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

After a quick return in green code yesterday afternoon, Guadeloupe and Martinica are since this afternoon 5PM under an yellow alert for a risk of strong showers and tstorms.

http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

Martinica Weather Forecast http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()

Here is the latest weather for Martinica related to the yellow alert issued at 5 PM.

Level of vigilance: yellow.

Warning : Heavy rains and thunderstorms.

Validity: Monday, September 2 at 5 PM.

Current situation: A broad low pressure area, currently in the southeast of Martinique will cross the Caribbean arc tonight.

Forecasts:The cloud masses associated with the low pressure zone will concern our island during the night.

Strong showers and tstorms are expected. As this system is moving relatively slowly, there's a risk of significant rainfall during 6 or 12 hours. Values expected should reach 70 to 100 millimeters on 12 hours.

Observed data:The system is too far away to have significant values at this time.

Next newsletter: Tuesday 3 September at -6AM.


Guadeloupe Weather Forecast

Here is the latest weather for Guadeloupe related to the yellow alert issued at 5 PM.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ameter=new Date().getTime()

Current situation: A tropical wave concerns us and crosses slowly the Caribbean Arc. This afternoon, she was near the 60 ° W, and has brang strong showers and tstorms, especially in the south part of the island.

Forecasts: During the night of Monday to Tuesday, the strong showers and tstorms will intensify. The half South of the island
the archipelago should be the most exposed: rainfall values close to 50 millimeters and more are expected. This stormy episode is forecast to persist till Wednesday included. Lulls sometimes temporary could appear.

Observed data: Today, Marie-Galante received 22,4 millimeters between 12 AM and 3 PM.

Next newsletter: Tuesday, September 3, around 06 AM.

[msbee]

Looks like a lot of rain on Martinique, heading towwards Guadeloupe right now

[Gustywind]

Looks like a lot of rain on Martinique, heading towwards Guadeloupe right now

Yes that it, we follow carefully the situation in Guadeloupe as weather conditions should deteriorate tonight.

[gatorcane]

Couple of tweets by Levi Cowan.

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 2h
Low pressure keeps feeding back to the east and keeping 97L from entering the Caribbean. The longer it waits, the more latitude it will gain.

Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 21m
Not entirely sure why NHC says mid-level dry air is 97L's problem. 12z soundings showed 700mb RH is 75% in Barbados, 66% in Gaudeloupe.


This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes, certainly looks like the longer it waits, the more latitude it can gain looking at the latest global model guidance which shows a large trough that should erode the subtropical ridge over the Western Atlantic and Eastern North America by day 5 (120 hours).

This stall we are seeing with 97L is certainly decreasing chances of this system being a Gulf or even Florida issue at this point when you look out at the extended forecast for this system, assuming the system even develops.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hammy]

I'm interested in seeing what would happen were these two systems to merge.

[ninel conde]

if it hangs around long enough it may get trapped under the newfoundland wheel.

[pgoss11]

if it hangs around long enough it may get trapped under the newfoundland wheel.

Is that the "Newfoundland wheel" Joe Bastardi tweeted about? Is there really such a thing?

[ninel conde]

if it hangs around long enough it may get trapped under the newfoundland wheel.

Is that the "Newfoundland wheel" Joe Bastardi tweeted about? Is there really such a thing?

yes, i posted about it in the model thread. its a strong blocking ridge over se canada. it appears to be developing at 180 on the 12z GFS. if it does develop then 97L might not recurve.

[cycloneye]

New Video about 97L by Levi Cowan.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... -antilles/

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[pgoss11]

if it hangs around long enough it may get trapped under the newfoundland wheel.

Is that the "Newfoundland wheel" Joe Bastardi tweeted about? Is there really such a thing?

yes, i posted about it in the model thread. its a strong blocking ridge over se canada. it appears to be developing at 180 on the 12z GFS. if it does develop then 97L might not recurve.

Interesting...Is this "wheel" a transient and passing thing or when it sets up does it hang around for awhile?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Just found this about the so called 'Newfoundland Wheel' -

http://www.examiner.com/article/summer-2010-what-are-ocean-temperatures-indicating

[Sanibel]

Nice blow-up in latest frames.