ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

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Gustywind
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#481 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:27 pm

:roll: :eek: Is something is cooking?


WHXX01 KWBC 080211
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0211 UTC MON JUL 8 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032013) 20130708 0000 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 46.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 23KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 36.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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#482 Postby LaBreeze » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:29 pm

Jevo wrote:7/7 18z HWRF Track and Intensity

Image


Slight northerly hook at the end. What's going to be in place at that time to cause this hook?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#483 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:30 pm

18Z NAVGEM- destroys TD3 over the islands and tries to re form it in the GOM at the end run....but its the NAVGEM...:)

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#484 Postby ouragans » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:31 pm

Guys, you were too quick. We have Chantal

AL, 03, 2013070800,,BEST, 0, 97N, 461W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ,30, 0, 0,30, 1013,150, 20,0,0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHANTAL, M,
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Re: Re:

#485 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:31 pm

LaBreeze wrote:
Jevo wrote:7/7 18z HWRF Track and Intensity

Image


Slight northerly hook at the end. What's going to be in place at that time to cause this hook?



supposed to be a EC trof....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#486 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:32 pm

ok now ts someone at nhc gave ahead to call it ts at 11pm maybe so can issue watch for islands
Last edited by floridasun78 on Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#487 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:33 pm

ok now ts i bet other was error
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Re:

#488 Postby ouragans » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:34 pm

floridasun78 wrote:ok now ts i bet other was error

not absolutly, it might be due to the vicinity of the island of Barbados
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#489 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:35 pm

ok now have 3 system by july 7 so this what all forecaster for this season were expect busy hurr season
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Re:

#490 Postby ozonepete » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:37 pm

floridasun78 wrote:ok now have 3 system by july 7 so this what all forecaster for this season were expect busy hurr season


Yeah here we go. Going to be a lot of work for us this season. There's a pretty healthy easterly wave right behind Chantal. But let's just concentrate on Chantal for now. :wink:
Last edited by ozonepete on Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#491 Postby Gustywind » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:38 pm

ouragans wrote:Guys, you were too quick. We have Chantal

AL, 03, 2013070800,,BEST, 0, 97N, 461W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ,30, 0, 0,30, 1013,150, 20,0,0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHANTAL, M,

Nice catch Ouragans :). That's now something to closely monitor.
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#492 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:40 pm

the weatherman on wsvn 7 in miami didnt get nhc report for Chantal he still call it invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#493 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:41 pm

Who wants to make an advisory thread? To have those separated from this main thread.
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Re:

#494 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:42 pm

floridasun78 wrote:the weatherman on wsvn 7 in miami didnt get nhc report for Chantal he still call it invest


That's because the NHC advisory isn't out yet.
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Re: Re:

#495 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:43 pm

ROCK wrote:
LaBreeze wrote:
Jevo wrote:7/7 18z HWRF Track and Intensity

Image


Slight northerly hook at the end. What's going to be in place at that time to cause this hook?



supposed to be a EC trof....

were did you get that map from?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#496 Postby ozonepete » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:43 pm

dying to know what their forecast track is...
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#497 Postby summersquall » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:44 pm

Does that mean there will be an 11pm advisory?
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Re:

#498 Postby blp » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:44 pm

meriland23 wrote:Look at that contorted spaghetti lookin' mess after 70 w... what in the world?


[]http://i44.tinypic.com/33jqqev.jpg[/img]


Looking at those ensembles I see a system getting trapped under a developing Bermuda High at the end forcing a west or southwest turn, which is in line with how things have looked this year. This is a different pattern than years past. We may unfortunately see a lot of this coming up.
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Re:

#499 Postby JTE50 » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:44 pm

floridasun78 wrote:ok now have 3 system by july 7 so this what all forecaster for this season were expect busy hurr season


Just as a comparison back in 2005, a very busy season where we exhausted the alphabet we had TD3 (Cindy) formed July3, TD4 (Dennis) formed July4, & TD5 (Emily) formed July 10th.
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Re:

#500 Postby ozonepete » Sun Jul 07, 2013 9:44 pm

summersquall wrote:Does that mean there will be an 11pm advisory?


Oh yeah!
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