ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Recon is a go. Plane departs at 1:30 EDT.The peeps can follow the data at recon thread.

[Senobia]

Here's the broad circulation I'm seeing on satellite & in the obs. There could be another small vortex in the NE part of the circled area, but it appears to be separating from the convection to the east (it may be moving westward). Hard to tell. Don't see much point in sending recon out today. Obs and satellite images tell the story.

So what does this mean, wxman? Because looking at it with a very untrained eye after reading what you said, it looks like there may be two or three systems.

One - on the right where all the clouds and 'action' look to be happening

Two - in the big circle you drew

Three - in the smaller circle in the larger one

[Dave]

Got it and ready

[wxman57]

Here's the broad circulation I'm seeing on satellite & in the obs. There could be another small vortex in the NE part of the circled area, but it appears to be separating from the convection to the east (it may be moving westward). Hard to tell. Don't see much point in sending recon out today. Obs and satellite images tell the story.

So what does this mean, wxman? Because looking at it with a very untrained eye after reading what you said, it looks like there may be two or three systems.

One - on the right where all the clouds and 'action' look to be happening

Two - in the big circle you drew

Three - in the smaller circle in the larger one

It means 91L is still poorly-organized. No well-defined LLC with any convection overhead. Plane will likely confirm that and say no TD has formed.

[NDG]

Here's the broad circulation I'm seeing on satellite & in the obs. There could be another small vortex in the NE part of the circled area, but it appears to be separating from the convection to the east (it may be moving westward). Hard to tell. Don't see much point in sending recon out today. Obs and satellite images tell the story.

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/91La.gif

I agree, is one heck of an elongated circulation, the only way they would upgrade it if a tight enough vorticity forms near the MLC close enough to the surface like we see sometimes with these weak sheared systems with broad circulations.

[wxman57]

Tonight, tomorrow morning will be its best shot at becoming a TD or weak TS.

[GCANE]

TCFA on NRL

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... o&PROD=gif

[hadassah1024]

Got it and ready

[robbielyn]

Im going to venture that recon will find a td in the making whether it is one at time they go out or not remains to be seen but what I have been waiting for is the classic baby in the womb taking shape and its beginning to. I also see that mlc getting sucked into the convection and not going west. I do think it is organizing steadily but slowly as well. still am unsure about whether it will reach ts status however before landfall

[NDG]

I think that today's plane leaves at 1:30 EDT:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 04 JUNE 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-004

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OG MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1730Z
D. 24.0N 89.0W
E. 05/1830Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[NDG]

Tonight, tomorrow morning will be its best shot at becoming a TD or weak TS.

If it does that then it would not last long before it gets sheared apart, IMO.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Recon is a go. Plane departs at 1:30 EDT.The peeps can follow the data at recon thread.

Fixed the time that the plane departs.

[GCANE]

Looks like an anti-cyclone about to form.

Improving UL outflow around the convection.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8wvir.GIF


If an LLC is really under that ......

[wxman57]

An interesting comparison between Debby of 2012 at the time of the 1st advisory and 92L. Similar looks, but Debby had a better-defined swirl.

Debby when it was upgraded to a 45kt TS:


Current 91L:

[GCANE]

There goes the 200mb PV anomaly - she's ramping up.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

[Dave]

NDG from todays it would be 1245 but that usually means any where in that time range. Also they may not send until closer to the system. waiting for the first set to come in.

[jlauderdal]

Whatever this is, I'm about in the middle of it. Aboard the Carnival Paradise sailing back to Tampa.
Present position 24.3/84.8. Rough ride with constant heavy rain, visibility looks to be about 1/4 mi at the surface. Can't give you the winds because they have had the winds and present GPS position disabled the whole cruise. No sun today. Oh well, it's 5 o'clock somewhere!

Good luck with storm and carnival...see if the captain can find a llc.

[RL3AO]

An interesting comparison between Debby of 2012 at the time of the 1st advisory and 92L. Similar looks, but Debby had a better-defined swirl.

Debby when it was upgraded to a 45kt TS:
[img]http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/debby.jpg[/img ]

Current 91L:
[img]http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/92L.jpg[/img ]

That is an amazing resemblance.

[wxman57]

That is an amazing resemblance.

My point was - you never can tell what the NHC might do. I'm not saying 92L deserves an upgrade because Debby looked as poor on satellite and IT was upgraded. Perhaps Debby was upgraded too quickly? Before that image, Debby did have a much better-defined swirl on satellite, though it was not near the convection.

[N2FSU]

FWIW, the Captain just announced the winds are 35kts out of the SE with 8ft seas.