ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[ronjon]

Pretty unfavorable, but not destructive.

SHEAR (KT) 9 15 12 7 5 8 13 19 25 23 23 21 25

Did anyone notice that strong ULL just to the north of the Yuc? i can't see much chance for 92L to develop given this situation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[MGC]

If anyone can find an incipient circulation it is Dean4storms....after staring for a while zt the sat loop,it does look like a circulation is taking shape over the Yucatan......MGC

[ozonepete]

I had said SW winds at 50-60 kts, not shear, as the system moves north toward the coast. The map posted above is current shear, not shear in 48 hrs. Maps below indicate future winds and shear. 50kt winds off the LA coast and 50+ kts shear offshore. 30+ kts shear down to the central Gulf by Saturday. Anything in the central Gulf is toast.

So where are these SW winds at 50-60 knots? All 3 charts you posted here show shear in knots - they don't show any winds in knots at any level. You labeled the first chart 200mb winds but it's a shear chart. Also, why would high 200mb winds matter if there's no shear in the low to mid-levels? Also, the middle chart shows the GFS shear forecast from 12Z this morning for --- 12Z this morning. That's already come and gone. Shear has been dropping a lot since then and so have shear forecasts. The more recent forecasts have favorable shear of 5 to maybe 15 knots all the way to near the coast.

[ozonepete]

Pretty unfavorable, but not destructive.

SHEAR (KT) 9 15 12 7 5 8 13 19 25 23 23 21 25

Did anyone notice that strong ULL just to the north of the Yuc? i can't see much chance for 92L to develop given this situation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

Look back a couple of pages. I addressed that with a couple of annotated charts.

[CrazyC83]

It looks like the trough will not come into play after all and this will get cut off?

[psyclone]

While I certainly agree with those giving this disturbance a small and decreasing chance of development I am interested in the big plume of moisture ripping north on the eastern flank of this system. it is a soaker in western cuba and long range radar out of key west shows this rainfall making progress to the north. should it hold together perhaps portions of Florida could get a lot wetter.

[hurricanekid416]

It doesn't look too bad I could see it redevelop

[ROCK]

No LLC I can see on any scan...maybe a MLC up north but nothing even close to the surface. This might be the piece of energy that gets spit out towards FL...leaving the true 92L down in the BOC nice and toasty and free of shear.....well so says a lot of guidance currently.

Have to agree on best track coordinates for now. Looks BOC bound from the looks of things...which I pretty much had from the very beginning when the EURO was showing it...

[ozonepete]

No LLC I can see on any scan...maybe a MLC up north but nothing even close to the surface. This might be the piece of energy that gets spit out towards FL...leaving the true 92L down in the BOC nice and toasty and free of shear.....well so says a lot of guidance currently.

Have to agree on best track coordinates for now. Looks BOC bound from the looks of things...which I pretty much had from the very beginning when the EURO was showing it...

Lol, Rock. Watch the low and mid-level movement on the rgb satellite loop. If the best track center is right then the LLC and MLC are moving south-southwestward and it will never get over water again, lol.

[ozonepete]

The center is near to coming off the north Yucatan coast east of Merida. Their winds are going north now.

['CaneFreak]

The voice of reason Glad you are posting this evening. Where's Aric Dunn?

The center is near to coming off the north Yucatan coast east of Merida. Their winds are going north now.

[ozonepete]

The voice of reason Glad you are posting this evening. Where's Aric Dunn?

The center is near to coming off the north Yucatan coast east of Merida. Their winds are going north now.

Ha ha thanks. I wish he were around. He has the perfect eye for this. I learned a lot from years of watching these on satellite, but Aric taught me a lot more; he helped me hone my skills. He's still the best at finding the COC and the most likely LLC.

['CaneFreak]

Looks to me like the trough is lifting out rapidly and the high is building in rather quickly over TX according to this low level steering map. I think the chances of it going north are getting smaller (UNLESS it strengthens pretty quickly).

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

['CaneFreak]

And if you go to the latest 00Z model runs, it appears that the majority of the models agree with this analysis.

Looks to me like the trough is lifting out rapidly and the high is building in rather quickly over TX according to this low level steering map. I think the chances of it going north are getting smaller (UNLESS it strengthens pretty quickly).

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[ozonepete]

Although the center appears to be near the north coast of the Yucatan, the entire circulation is still very elongated north to south and that really complicates things. I'm still leaning towards the central Gulf coast for landfall but only if it develops into a TD tomorrow. Otherwise it will just get stretched out and dissipate. I don't see enough energy on the southern end of this for that part to develop into anything.

[jeff]

I had said SW winds at 50-60 kts, not shear, as the system moves north toward the coast. The map posted above is current shear, not shear in 48 hrs. Maps below indicate future winds and shear. 50kt winds off the LA coast and 50+ kts shear offshore. 30+ kts shear down to the central Gulf by Saturday. Anything in the central Gulf is toast.

So where are these SW winds at 50-60 knots? All 3 charts you posted here show shear in knots - they don't show any winds in knots at any level. You labeled the first chart 200mb winds but it's a shear chart. Also, why would high 200mb winds matter if there's no shear in the low to mid-levels? Also, the middle chart shows the GFS shear forecast from 12Z this morning for --- 12Z this morning. That's already come and gone. Shear has been dropping a lot since then and so have shear forecasts. The more recent forecasts have favorable shear of 5 to maybe 15 knots all the way to near the coast.

The charts are 850mb-200mb shear in kts from the GFS model. The GFS is showing 30kts of shear over the NC/W Gulf of Mexico on Saturday at least form the 12Z run this morning which makes sense given the position of the trough over TX. Now if the "LLC" remains south the shear will be less and a little bit east of the GFS projection the shear is also lighter.

[jeff]

Although the center appears to be near the north coast of the Yucatan, the entire circulation is still very elongated north to south and that really complicates things. I'm still leaning towards the central Gulf coast for landfall but only if it develops into a TD tomorrow. Otherwise it will just get stretched out and dissipate. I don't see enough energy on the southern end of this for that part to develop into anything.

Many times systems such as this with a large circulation envelop have embedded "satellite" centers that come and go. It is best to follow the mean overall circulation and not such vort centers. With that said at times especially when shear and dry air are involved such vorts can spin up under deep convection and over time if maintained become the dominate center...usually displaced on the NE side of the mean overall circulation.

[ozonepete]

Although the center appears to be near the north coast of the Yucatan, the entire circulation is still very elongated north to south and that really complicates things. I'm still leaning towards the central Gulf coast for landfall but only if it develops into a TD tomorrow. Otherwise it will just get stretched out and dissipate. I don't see enough energy on the southern end of this for that part to develop into anything.

Many times systems such as this with a large circulation envelop have embedded "satellite" centers that come and go. It is best to follow the mean overall circulation and not such vort centers. With that said at times especially when shear and dry air are involved such vorts can spin up under deep convection and over time if maintained become the dominate center...usually displaced on the NE side of the mean overall circulation.

I posted almost exactly what you said one or two pages back!

[ozonepete]

I had said SW winds at 50-60 kts, not shear, as the system moves north toward the coast. The map posted above is current shear, not shear in 48 hrs. Maps below indicate future winds and shear. 50kt winds off the LA coast and 50+ kts shear offshore. 30+ kts shear down to the central Gulf by Saturday. Anything in the central Gulf is toast.

So where are these SW winds at 50-60 knots? All 3 charts you posted here show shear in knots - they don't show any winds in knots at any level. You labeled the first chart 200mb winds but it's a shear chart. Also, why would high 200mb winds matter if there's no shear in the low to mid-levels? Also, the middle chart shows the GFS shear forecast from 12Z this morning for --- 12Z this morning. That's already come and gone. Shear has been dropping a lot since then and so have shear forecasts. The more recent forecasts have favorable shear of 5 to maybe 15 knots all the way to near the coast.

The charts are 850mb-200mb shear in kts from the GFS model. The GFS is showing 30kts of shear over the NC/W Gulf of Mexico on Saturday at least form the 12Z run this morning which makes sense given the position of the trough over TX. Now if the "LLC" remains south the shear will be less and a little bit east of the GFS projection the shear is also lighter.

Thanks, Jeff. I know those charts well. I said what you just said: as long as the LLC (or TC center if it strengthens) is south of the coast the shear will be less. What I asked wxman was where he got "and 50+ kts shear offshore". There is no shear of 50+ knots offshore anywhere near where the LLC would be on his charts. 30 knots maybe, as you said, but definitely not 50+!! But not to worry. Wxman and I have known each other a long time and have these discussions all of the time here so it is just a friendly debate about what is going to happen. We keep each other on our toes.

[HurriGuy]

Seems like the wave axis is still moving generally northwest and the trough is still plunging south. I still don't see why the system won't get pulled north? How strong is that high to the west expected to get?