ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

AF 303..takeoff enroute to Invest 91L

000
URNT15 KNHC 051734
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 03 20130605
172600 3025N 08855W 0134 00001 0137 +315 +244 360000 000 /// /// 03
172630 3025N 08855W 0134 00001 0136 +314 +244 360000 000 /// /// 03
172700 3025N 08855W 0131 00002 0136 +324 +244 360000 000 /// /// 03
172730 3025N 08855W 0132 00001 0133 +334 +243 360000 000 /// /// 03
172800 3025N 08855W 0134 ///// 0134 +344 +242 360000 000 /// /// 23
172830 3025N 08855W 0134 ///// 0133 +344 +240 360000 000 /// /// 23
172900 3025N 08855W 0136 ///// 0132 +341 +239 360000 000 /// /// 23
172930 3025N 08855W 0133 ///// 0133 +327 +239 360000 000 /// /// 23
173000 3025N 08855W 0132 ///// 0130 +343 +238 360000 000 /// /// 23
173030 3025N 08855W 0135 ///// 0134 +342 +235 360000 000 /// /// 23
173100 3025N 08855W 0130 ///// 0130 +302 +234 136001 000 /// /// 26
173130 3024N 08856W 0073 00024 0120 +270 +231 137011 014 /// /// 03
173200 3023N 08856W 9840 00247 0123 +243 +222 128012 014 /// /// 03
173230 3022N 08858W 9808 00288 0136 +236 +216 126011 012 /// /// 03
173300 3021N 08859W 9806 00289 0131 +235 +218 126012 013 /// /// 03
173330 3020N 08900W 9541 00517 0119 +220 +208 119013 014 /// /// 03
173400 3019N 08902W 9203 00834 0125 +202 +181 107011 012 /// /// 03
173430 3018N 08904W 8800 01219 0122 +181 +164 101011 012 /// /// 03
173500 3018N 08905W 8427 01592 0123 +161 +147 102009 011 /// /// 03
173530 3017N 08907W 8078 01950 0122 +143 +131 114007 008 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Weatherguy173]

the wind speeds of buoy Station 42003 on the NDBC database is registering winds of 25.3 knots and gusts of 29.1 knots as of 12:50 EST. Coordinates: ( 26°2'38" N 85°36'42" W ). Pressure at 29.83 and falling.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY
DEFINED...HOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING
OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND IN
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

[TheStormExpert]

For those of you who are wondering why S. FL has had very little rainfall from 91L. 2-4in. of rain is still possible according to my local news station here in WPB, FL.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Yah! Cheers for recon watching ahead.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051744
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 04 20130605
173600 3016N 08909W 7814 02232 0117 +129 +115 094009 009 /// /// 03
173630 3015N 08911W 7528 02543 0112 +114 +097 100009 009 /// /// 03
173700 3014N 08912W 7318 02784 0117 +101 +077 088009 010 032 002 03
173730 3014N 08914W 7111 03021 0118 +087 +059 072009 010 034 000 03
173800 3012N 08916W 6975 03189 0129 +076 +041 050008 009 /// /// 03
173830 3010N 08917W 6857 03323 0122 +066 +033 041006 007 032 000 03
173900 3008N 08917W 6660 03560 0118 +052 +016 046004 005 033 000 03
173930 3006N 08918W 6416 03863 0115 +036 -006 053002 005 /// /// 03
174000 3004N 08918W 6219 04119 0118 +021 -051 047002 003 /// /// 03
174030 3002N 08919W 6041 04354 0115 +008 -065 087003 004 /// /// 03
174100 3000N 08919W 5872 04576 0113 -006 -136 098003 004 /// /// 03
174130 2958N 08919W 5705 04806 0116 -021 -143 030004 005 /// /// 03
174200 2956N 08920W 5563 05005 0109 -030 -205 326005 006 /// /// 03
174230 2954N 08920W 5418 05212 0236 -040 -240 280006 006 /// /// 03
174300 2952N 08921W 5281 05414 0247 -051 -257 255007 008 /// /// 03
174330 2950N 08921W 5156 05603 0259 -057 -311 267005 008 /// /// 03
174400 2948N 08921W 5083 05718 0267 -061 -340 293007 008 /// /// 03
174430 2946N 08922W 5003 05841 0274 -066 -361 305008 008 /// /// 03
174500 2943N 08922W 4973 05894 0281 -070 -360 311008 008 /// /// 03
174530 2941N 08923W 4972 05896 0283 -070 -330 310009 010 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Weatherguy173]

@thestormexpert: check out the hpc predictions, they may come in handy for you if you want to check the predicted rainfall amounts over the next few days

[cycloneye]

OuterBanker, this will be interesting for you.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL FIX MISSION
NEAR 33.0N AND 78.0W AT 07/1800Z

[robbielyn]

one thing I will say. the mere fact no one is getting excited about this storms potential compared to debby last year tells me where we really stand with 91L. Its not going to be any big deal. especially with nhc saying it could become td or ts with debby we knew it was going to make it just wasnt sure how strong.

[ROCK]

NHC playing it "better safe than sorry" with going to 60% so close to land. Make sense given the current presentation. Cyclongenesis is incredibly hard to forecast as we all know...

[CrazyC83]

when they say td or ts winds will be felt along the coast, I am at least 10 miles inland does that still include me or not?

Not sustained no, unless it strengthens significantly. Perhaps gusts in thunderstorm squalls but they would likely be intermittent and brief.

[CrazyC83]

What would the NHC and offices issue if they find a closed circulation, a Tropical Storm Warning?

[CrazyC83]

Models also show a second system merging with this. I could get 3 to 6 inches of rain this weekend if the left models are accurate.

[gatorcane]

As the day has gone the MLC has surely become more defined.
It will be interesting to see what the recon finds underneath it, inflow into it still very evident.

Click on the loop below, make sure you speed it up.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... duration=7

Yeah I see that too. Seems to be wrapping up a bit more now. The system is over the loop current and shear has relaxed. The next 24 hours is the best chance it will have to become a Tropical Storm. 60% still a bit low, looks more like 80% to me right now.

[CrazyC83]

It depends on the surface and air temperature and dewpoint. In Florida in June with a tropical air mass nearby, modest destabilization can happen very quickly, which increases with time.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 051754
AF303 01AAA INVEST HDOB 05 20130605
174600 2939N 08923W 4974 05896 0284 -070 -345 302011 011 /// /// 03
174630 2936N 08923W 4974 05896 0285 -071 -342 301011 012 /// /// 03
174700 2933N 08924W 4978 05893 0286 -070 -335 303011 012 /// /// 03
174730 2931N 08924W 4976 05894 0287 -070 -345 300013 013 /// /// 03
174800 2928N 08925W 4977 05896 0288 -070 -354 296013 014 /// /// 03
174830 2925N 08925W 4976 05894 0287 -070 -358 296014 014 /// /// 03
174900 2923N 08926W 4976 05895 0287 -070 -361 297014 014 /// /// 03
174930 2920N 08926W 4980 05889 0288 -072 -358 291013 013 /// /// 03
175000 2918N 08927W 4975 05897 0287 -069 -354 290013 013 /// /// 03
175030 2915N 08927W 4974 05899 0287 -070 -362 294013 013 /// /// 03
175100 2912N 08928W 4976 05895 0287 -070 -367 292012 013 /// /// 03
175130 2910N 08928W 4975 05897 0288 -070 -368 291013 013 /// /// 03
175200 2907N 08929W 4978 05893 0288 -067 -369 285012 012 /// /// 03
175230 2904N 08929W 4975 05897 0288 -067 -371 284011 012 /// /// 03
175300 2902N 08930W 4976 05897 0287 -065 -371 289011 011 032 000 03
175330 2859N 08930W 4976 05895 0287 -065 -370 293010 011 /// /// 03
175400 2857N 08931W 4980 05889 0287 -065 -370 295010 011 /// /// 03
175430 2854N 08931W 4975 05899 0289 -065 -372 296010 010 /// /// 03
175500 2851N 08932W 4978 05894 0287 -065 -377 295010 010 /// /// 03
175530 2849N 08932W 4975 05898 0288 -065 -380 297010 010 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Frank2]

It does look better organized on the IR - we'll see what the recon finds, though the water temps are just below 80F north of 25N, so...

Another hurricane season is here - another exercise in egg-walking (lol)...

Frank

[Dave]

[Janie2006]

Can't blame NHC for playing it close to the vest, cos they've been burned before. Danny topped hurricane status just prior to coming ashore near Mobile....conventional wisdom at the time had Danny limited to a TS at landfall, but he surprised a lot of people.

[ROCK]

bet they stay in it a long time and try to close it off since they are so close to base.