WPAC: SOULIK- Post-Tropical

[HURAKAN]

No one cares JMA. It upgraded Soulik to a typhoon at 00Z.

It's more interesting than Chantal, that's for sure!! I did mention it on my fb page! I don't post much here anymore.

[euro6208]

209
WTPQ31 PGUM 090339
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON SOULIK (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072013
200 PM CHST TUE JUL 9 2013

...TYPHOON SOULIK (07W) INTENSIFYING NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.7N 139.8E

ABOUT 390 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 405 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 505 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN...AND
ABOUT 540 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON SOULIK WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.8 EAST.

TYPHOON SOULIK IS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL TRACK AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 85 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUT TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUT TO 125 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON SOULIK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH THURSDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.

$$

WILLIAMS

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

looks impressive in this visible image,


but in reality... it's still some having trouble closing it out.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Much more interesting than Chantel. Models still split on where exactly it will go. I hope they come together today.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Eyewall fully closed off now, it's clearly utterly exploding!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[stormstrike]

oh so pretty...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I wouldn't be surprised if this develops into a Category 5, which I think will.

[phwxenthusiast]

I wouldn't be surprised if this develops into a Category 5, which I think will.

there's a chance imo... but there's still the possibility of an EWRC which could hamper the intensification... latest MWI hinting of what looks like a concentric eyewall that could probably continue forming over the next hours... not sure if this will definitely lead to an eyewall replacement but the possibility is there...



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[dexterlabio]

I agree that eyewall replacement could hamper further intensification. But the southern eyewall looks intense and if favorable condition stays and allows Soulik to intensify even more, could lead to a thicker, intense eyewall... just like Megi's, the eyewall was so thick that it never underwent EWRC during its peak. I also think it's quite early for EWRC to take place for now but we'll see.

[dexterlabio]

Geez, if the Euro solution pans out..i can't imagine how those high rise buildings in Taipei will fare when Soulik's core passes over. Flight level winds are stronger than surface winds which is expected to reach Cat4 strength, at least...

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 956.9mb/ 97.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.3 6.8

[RL3AO]

I love watching these WPac systems bomb out. Such a sight to see.

[euro6208]

Based on imagery alone and the continued rapid intensification, the intensity is likely in the neighborhood of 115 knots a category 4 typhoon!





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[RL3AO]

Based on imagery alone and the continued rapid intensification, the intensity is likely in the neighborhood of 115 knots a category 4 typhoon!





The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

My uneducated eye would put it around 105kts but strengthening rapidly. I've noticed 115kt storms tend to have a very round eye while this one is still a bit jagged.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JMA's Latest Warning:
<Analyses at 09/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°20'(20.3°)
E138°05'(138.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 10/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°55'(20.9°)
E135°40'(135.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°30'(21.5°)
E133°20'(133.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°50'(22.8°)
E128°25'(128.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 12/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°30'(24.5°)
E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 920hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL650km(350NM)

[dexterlabio]

My uneducated eye would put it around 105kts but strengthening rapidly. I've noticed 115kt storms tend to have a very round eye while this one is still a bit jagged.

Yeah agreed...still looks like a Cat3 to me, but we might be seeing a different picture tomorrow if conditions remain the same. Still a lot of time before it reaches Taiwan/Southeastern China coast.

[mrbagyo]

WOW!!!


cat 3 to low end cat 4 in my opinion( like Nesat ) for NOW.
I don't know tomorrow??? It might continue bombing to become a cat 4 or even a cat 5 since it will enter one of warmest area in the whole Pacific.
the Philippine sea is one of the Cradle of Rapid intensification(ei. Megi, Nanmadol, Jelawat, Sanba, and many many more)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

WOW!!!


cat 3 to low end cat 4 in my opinion( like Nesat ) for NOW.
I don't know tomorrow??? It might continue bombing to become a cat 4 or even a cat 5 since it will enter one of warmest area in the whole Pacific.
the Philippine sea is one of the Cradle of Rapid intensification(ei. Megi, Nanmadol, Jelawat, Sanba, and many many more)

that looks AWESOME!!!

[jaguarjace]

A well defined eyewall on the last frame.