CPAC: GIL - Post-Tropical

#61 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 12:34 pm

Likely a strong TS IMO.

#62 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:48 pm

18z Best Track up to 60kts.

[b][EP, 07, 2013073118, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1202W, 60, 992, TS/b]

#63 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 1:57 pm

Eye is about to pop open on visible imagery. Looks well into hurricane strength.

#64 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 2:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track up to 60kts.

[b][EP, 07, 2013073118, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1202W, 60, 992, TS/b]

Coding fail?

Anyhow, I won't be shocked to see this at 65 knots. I think Gil wants to see (a.ka form an eye).

#65 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 2:17 pm

beautiful storm

#66 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 2:19 pm

#67 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 2:26 pm

#68 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 2:35 pm

Kingarabian wrote:

Starting to look like a minimal hurricane.

#69 Postby **Ntxw** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 3:01 pm

Gawjus! Should be looking at us soon. Agreed this looks like a minimal hurricane at the least.

Cainer · #70 Postby **Cainer** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 3:24 pm

My gut is telling me that this could be our first major of the season in the EPAC. Looks pretty good right now.

#71 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 3:25 pm

Cainer wrote:My gut is telling me that this could be our first major of the season in the EPAC. Looks pretty good right now.

Given the 65 knt forecast peak from the NHC, I'm not sold on it yet. Quite possible though.

#72 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 3:34 pm

HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
200 PM PDT WED JUL 31 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A RAGGED EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...CDO. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE CDO. ON
THIS BASIS...GIL HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS IN THIS
ADVISORY. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR GIL TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...FORECAST AN INCREASE IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER OR NEAR THE CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH
COOLER WATERS...SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 36 OR 48
HOURS.

GIL HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. GIL CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED BY THE FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GIL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT GIL WILL BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED
AND A WEAKENED LOWER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TURNING GIL MORE TO
THE WEST BEYOND 3 DAYS.

A RECENT ASCAT-B PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL WIND RADII
ASSOCIATED WITH GIL WHICH IN FACT IS A SMALL HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 13.9N 120.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 14.3N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 14.7N 124.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 15.0N 126.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 15.3N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 15.5N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

weathernerdguy · #73 Postby **weathernerdguy** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 3:42 pm

Its already blowing up now.. because it just did a 8 millibar drop and the winds went up from 60 mph to 75 mph from the last update to now.

#74 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 3:50 pm

I am surprised that the NHC is only forecasting a 70 knt peak. The environment looks good for some moderate RI for the next 36 to 48 hours.

My prediction:
12hr 75 knt
24 hr 80 knt
36 hr 80 knt
48 hr 70 knt
72 hr 30 knt

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#75 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 3:51 pm

Is it me or is the image above pixelated?

#76 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 4:11 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:[img][/img]

Is it me or is the image above pixelated?

AMSUB is like that.

supercane4867 · #77 Postby **supercane4867** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 4:36 pm

Pinhole eye :—)

#78 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 4:40 pm

Beautiful...

#79 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 4:40 pm

yeah...think the NHC is a touch low in their peak intensity.

#80 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Jul 31, 2013 5:42 pm

Gil at 21:00Z

Entire GOES West image, resized to 5K x 5K: http://imageshack.us/a/img850/3159/zucn.jpg

CPAC: GIL - Post-Tropical

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