ATL: FERNAND - Renmants - Discussion

['CaneFreak]

Yes basically.

200 mb Velocity potential is proportional to UL divergence?

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: You beat me to it, Twx13. I was just about to post that image. The MJO effect is already there in the west Atlantic. And it looks like the atmosphere is beginning to respond.

200 mb Velocity potential is proportional to UL divergence?

Yes. It is most important in allowing for stronger lapse rates and/or stronger upward acceleration of air parcels all the way up to the upper levels. That means thunderstorms can grow to really high heights and we all know how important that is for intensification. So I wouldn't be surprised if this disturbance pops up some really cold cloud tops tonight, especially towards DMAX in the early morning.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Looking at some of the models wouldnt be too suprised if this attempts minimal CAT 1 status

[jinftl]

10PM CDT wind and pressure reports from reporting locations around Bay of Campeche - no winds to speak of and pressures rising. We will see what recon finds if they go out tomorrow once the system gets over the high octane waters of the Bay of C. It could get its act together if it can get enough time over water.


CAMPECHE NE9 29.91R
MERIDA E7 29.96R
TAPACHULA CALM 29.89R
VILLAHERMOSA CALM 29.84R
VERACRUZ N3 29.92R
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/products/RWRMX.php

Are there wind reports over 40mph sustained

[ozonepete]

Reminds me of Helene from last year.

[bwjnj]

what are the chances of this going through an RI event

[ozonepete]

what are the chances of this going through an RI event

Pretty low. RI requires a 30 knot increase in wind in 24 hours and remember it's hard to even gauge what its winds are now. If it has some 15 knot winds now it would have to get to 45 knots before landfall to qualify. And generally the NHC doesn't count going from a disturbance with undetermined winds to a 45 knot TS as RI - that makes sense since usually RI is used to gauge how TD's, TS's or hurricanes intensify rapidly.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

60%

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF
THE YUCATAN COAST OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...BUT
NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION. THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN OVER WATER WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE
IT REACHES THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ON MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[RL3AO]

These BOC systems can be interesting to track. They really like to take off.

[Airboy]

Blowing up over the water now, but will not have much time over the water.

[cycloneye]

60%-60%

Plane will go this afternoon.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST
OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE
STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BROWN

[Alyono]

looking much better organized. a moderate ts cannot be ruled out

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013082512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 939W, 25, 1007, LO

[tropicwatch]

Station SACV4 - Sacrifice Island, Mexico:

Winds N at 21kts gusting to 25
Pressure 29.86 in or 1011.17mb steady

Station VERV4 - Veracruz Harbor, MX
Winds N at 22kts gusting to 26
Pressure 29.85 in or 1010.8mb steady

[weatherwindow]

12z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013082512, , BEST, 0, 194N, 939W, 25, 1007, LO

Good morning, Luis....everything appears to be in order, nice circular structure, hot tower firing in the MCS over the apparent LLC, pressures falling...on target to reach the recon position of 20.0N 95.5W(from yesterdays recon frag) this afternoon. My only reservation is lack of "real estate"...our little "TC to be" is only ~60mi from the coast at its closest and, assuming it is designated as a TC this afternoon, it may only be 6-10 hours from landfall in the Veracruz region(@8kts). Short lifespan ...Grtz from KW, Rich
PS However, thank the heavens we finally have something to track

[Gustywind]

First SSD numbers appearence...


25/1145 UTC 19.4N 93.9W T1.0/1.0 95L

[galaxy401]

Race against time here. See how this storm does.

[Alyono]

this has until tomorrow afternoon to intensify

[weatherwindow]

this has until tomorrow afternoon to intensify

Good morning, Al....assuming a vector, of say, 285...how long would you estimate that this system has before landfall(lets assume 8-10kts)? I had calculated ~10hrs as of 1800 this afternoon...Grtz from KW, Rich

[weatherwindow]

this has until tomorrow afternoon to intensify

Good morning, Al....assuming a vector, of say, 285...how long would you estimate that this system has before landfall(lets assume 8-10kts)?...Grtz from KW, Rich