ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I thought that considering this system has the best chance to be the first hurricane of the 2013 season,this 91L thread would be active with comments.

I did too considering we have code red and it could end up being our first hurricane and folks have been complaining about the lack of hurricanes to track (or perhaps it is lack of hurricanes that pose a threat to the U.S. to track?). Yet the thread is quite lackluster.

Anyway, it is not moving WNW as the NHC states in their latest outlook. It's moving at 275 (West) according to the latest RAL update and what I can tell looking at the latest vis loop. I don't see alot of latitude gain at all yet:

[HURAKAN]

systems in the eastern Atlantic do not garner public interest

[cycloneye]

That is true but if anyone is a enthusiastic follower of tropical weather and like to track systems,you look at them in any area of the basin no matter if it doesn't threat the Caribbean nor CONUS.

[caneman]

I'm an enthusiastic follower but honestly - no threat to US - no interest to me.

[Hurricaneman]

This is the kind of system I enjoy watching, its a threat to no one except the Cape Verdes and it could become quite the picturesque hurricane in a few days which is the best kind. I absolutely don't like the ones near land because you know someone is going to suffer so I would like to see more systems like 91L over like an Andrew or Katrina like system

[hurricanes1234]

Actually right now, I am viewing this forum every half an hour or so, to see if there are any new posts, and it's surprisingly quiet. This system has a better chance at becoming a hurricane than ALL of the previous waves/storms so far, and it doesn't seem to be changing (for example, constantly being lowered and dropped from the model runs). Even if it just turns out to be a minimal hurricane, it's still going to be 10 mph stronger than our strongest storm thus far, which in my opinion, is a huge jump from the moisture-deprived and torn apart systems we've been having so far in this Cape-Verde area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hammy]

Actually right now, I am viewing this forum every half an hour or so, to see if there are any new posts, and it's surprisingly quiet. This system has a better chance at becoming a hurricane than ALL of the previous waves/storms so far, and it doesn't seem to be changing (for example, constantly being lowered and dropped from the model runs). Even if it just turns out to be a minimal hurricane, it's still going to be 10 mph stronger than our strongest storm thus far, which in my opinion, is a huge jump from the moisture-deprived and torn apart systems we've been having so far in this Cape-Verde area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Most likely the boards are so quiet because this is probably yet another in the line of weak, short-lived, grossly over-forecast in intensity waves that we've seen. And given that still none of the reliable models are snowing hurricane intensity within the realistic time span, I wouldn't get my hopes up either.

[TJRE]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

latest CIMSS slide show

Birthing



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[RL3AO]

Looks like a developing tropical cyclone.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

An increase in convection should result in the formation of a tropical depression.

[RL3AO]

I think we will see 80/90 or 90/90 at 2pm.

[weathernerdguy]

or maybe a 100/100

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Actually right now, I am viewing this forum every half an hour or so, to see if there are any new posts, and it's surprisingly quiet. This system has a better chance at becoming a hurricane than ALL of the previous waves/storms so far, and it doesn't seem to be changing (for example, constantly being lowered and dropped from the model runs). Even if it just turns out to be a minimal hurricane, it's still going to be 10 mph stronger than our strongest storm thus far, which in my opinion, is a huge jump from the moisture-deprived and torn apart systems we've been having so far in this Cape-Verde area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Most likely the boards are so quiet because this is probably yet another in the line of weak, short-lived, grossly over-forecast in intensity waves that we've seen. And given that still none of the reliable models are snowing hurricane intensity within the realistic time span, I wouldn't get my hopes up either.

Bingo! Can't speak for everybody but I sure am in will believe it when I see mode. Thursday can't get here soon enough. I want to see some records fall

[Weatherguy173]

or maybe a 100/100

they might as well just call it a TD then if it is a 100% & 100%

[hurricanes1234]

Maybe we'll see one of those lyrical TWOS at 2:00 PM that says,“Satellite images indicate that the ... has become better organised, and a tropical depression could be forming.”

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

or maybe a 100/100

they might as well just call it a TD then if it is a 100% & 100%

No, advisories/upgrades come at 11:00 and 5:00 AM and PM, so a 2:00 PM TWO at near 100% would basically be saying that at 5:00 PM, they are most likely going to issue advisories.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Actually right now, I am viewing this forum every half an hour or so, to see if there are any new posts, and it's surprisingly quiet. This system has a better chance at becoming a hurricane than ALL of the previous waves/storms so far, and it doesn't seem to be changing (for example, constantly being lowered and dropped from the model runs). Even if it just turns out to be a minimal hurricane, it's still going to be 10 mph stronger than our strongest storm thus far, which in my opinion, is a huge jump from the moisture-deprived and torn apart systems we've been having so far in this Cape-Verde area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Most likely the boards are so quiet because this is probably yet another in the line of weak, short-lived, grossly over-forecast in intensity waves that we've seen. And given that still none of the reliable models are snowing hurricane intensity within the realistic time span, I wouldn't get my hopes up either.

Can't say that's not gonna happen, but chantal, erin, and dorian were all forecast to stay weak as they traversed through the atlantic.

[Weatherguy173]

or maybe a 100/100

they might as well just call it a TD then if it is a 100% & 100%

No, advisories/upgrades come at 11:00 and 5:00 AM and PM, so a 2:00 PM TWO at near 100% would basically be saying that at 5:00 PM, they are most likely going to issue advisories.

gotcha, and i know adv. are at 6 hr intervals at those hrs anyway.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters has a discussion on his blog about 91L.

It's a rare tropical cyclone-free September 8th on Earth, without a tropical depression, tropical storm, hurricane, or typhoon in the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Oceans. Considering that the first two weeks of September are the peak of the tropical cyclone season in the Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Northwest Pacific, today's lack of activity is quite unusual. It looks like the Atlantic will be ocean basin to break the tropical cyclone-free spell, as a strong tropical wave (Invest 91L) emerged from the coast of Africa on Saturday, and is now moving west-northwest at 10 mph towards the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite loops show that 91L is well-organized with plenty of spin and a growing amount of heavy thunderstorms. All of the models develop this wave into a tropical depression just west of the Cape Verde Islands by Wednesday, and 91L has the potential to intensify into a hurricane by late in the week. The storm is expected to track to the northwest into a region of ocean where the Azores Islands would likely be the only land area at risk from a strike. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 2-day odds of development at 70%, and the 5-day odds at 90%

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2516

[cycloneye]

NNE winds in CV islands suggest a TD may be forming. We will know more at 2 PM TWO.