ATL: INGRID - Models

[ROCK]

i think stronger system would take a more northern track

agree...and also where the LLC sets up..will be key..

[Rgv20]

Impressive Moisture Content by 93L in 126hrs forecast by the 0zHWRF Basin Scale



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[ROCK]

that looks very LARGE.... NAVGEM was showing something similiar in size....Ike-ish right there...

[tolakram]

Here's the Euro vorticity plot just before landfall.



Compared to the 0Z run at 168, where the best vorticity was displayed inland.



So all in all the Euro has not moved the vorticity much further north, it just changed the angle.

Both images from http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewalltropatl.html

[HouTXmetro]

Based on what the different Models are showing, Veracruz to Brownsville are likely targets. Maybe closer to Tampico.

[Portastorm]

Based on what the different Models are showing, Veracruz to Brownsville are likely targets. Maybe closer to Tampico.

For now ... yes. Of course, this is subject to change as we don't even have a defined and clear center of circulation and may not for days.

[ROCK]

I don't think the models are done moving just yet. Since I am a betting man I would say SW LA to Tampico needs to watch closely.

[Wx_Warrior]

Rock has left #TeamEURO, and you wont be welcomed back.

[PTrackerLA]

We could use the moisture here too...don't hog it all Texas!

[Tireman4]

Based on what the different Models are showing, Veracruz to Brownsville are likely targets. Maybe closer to Tampico.

For now ... yes. Of course, this is subject to change as we don't even have a defined and clear center of circulation and may not for days.

I totally agree with Porta here. We have no defined center and goodness knows when we will. For that fact alone, everything is a crap shoot.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

12Z FIM9- mid Texas coast...very large system...tracks along the coast also just inland.
12Z FIM8- real close to Freeport...very large system....tracks along the coast also.

http://fim.noaa.gov/

[stormlover2013]

Image rock?

[Portastorm]

12Z FIM9- mid Texas coast...very large system...tracks along the coast also just inland.
12Z FIM8- real close to Freeport...very large system....tracks along the coast also.

http://fim.noaa.gov/

For the less FIM educated crowd (of which I am a member), here's a little blurb about it on the Fount of All Knowledge (Wikipedia):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow-following,_finite-volume_Icosahedral_Model

[Rgv20]

18zGFS looks like it has 93L as a TD in the BOC come Friday Morning..



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[Sambucol]

12Z FIM9- mid Texas coast...very large system...tracks along the coast also just inland.
12Z FIM8- real close to Freeport...very large system....tracks along the coast also.

http://fim.noaa.gov/

What's the timeframe of landfall on that run?

[HouTXmetro]

That's buried way down in the BOC. I don't see how it will make that much progress Northward.

[Portastorm]

FIM8 at 132 hours:



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FIM9 at 132 hours:



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[Wx_Warrior]

18z GFS? GFS is the most inconsistent piece of you know what

[Tireman4]

18z GFS? GFS is the most inconsistent piece of you know what

So in your mind, the Euro is the best? Just asking. Not trying to flame model wars ( I swear I am behaving Porta...LOL)

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like 18z will bury in BOC, actually moved WSW at 102 hrs.