WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

[RL3AO]

A super typhoon would not surprise me at this point.

[mrbagyo]

The 3rd Official typhoon - Typhoon Usagi
TY 1319 (USAGI)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 18 September 2013

<Analyses at 18/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N17°20'(17.3°)
E129°35'(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°10'(18.2°)
E126°35'(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 20/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°55'(19.9°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°20'(21.3°)
E120°35'(120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

[mrbagyo]

I couldn't help myself

Ingrid on the left at 75kts, Usagi on the right 65kts

http://img850.imageshack.us/img850/8030/wk0g.png

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Ingrid - the hurricane that doesn't look like a hurricane... NHC even predicted a cat 2 out of that one...

[euro6208]

only 65 knots?!? we all know this is stronger than that...

Usagi now the 6th typhoon this season...

[euro6208]

Latest reasoning on Typhoon Usagi...

WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 562 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS AN
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO WRAP
COMPLETELY AROUND A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. AN 181107Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THE RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AS
DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS FULLY AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS IN ALL QUADRANTS. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED UPON THE DEVELOPING
EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE EIR AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND KNES AND ALSO DUE TO OBSERVED INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LLCC WHICH IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY
17W IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CHINA THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W WILL TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO
THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS IN
FROM NORTHERN CHINA AND BEGINS TO PRESS ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
STR. THE STR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN, BUT THIS WILL ALLOW TY
17W TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK (29 TO 30 CELSIUS)
ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
105 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND NORTHERN
LUZON WILL INTERRUPT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW, LEADING TO A WEAKENING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 17W IS EXPECTED TO PROCEED MORE
WESTWARD AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATES EASTWARD WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE STR TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF IN A MORE EAST-WEST
ORIENTATION. LAND EFFECTS FROM TAIWAN AND COASTAL CHINA WILL KEEP TY
17W ON A WEAKENING TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 48 IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TRACK. AFTER TAU 48, A SLIGHT DIVERGENCE HAS DEVELOPED IN SOME OF
THE MODELS AS NAVGEM, UKMO, AND JGSM TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN. GFS, ECMWF, AND HWRF HAVE STAYED
TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE SOUTHERN MODELS, WHICH HAVE
BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH A PASSAGE THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIGHT.
OVERALL, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[RL3AO]

If you call that whole center part the eye, you can sneak a T5.0 out of it.

[mrbagyo]

a look at the current steering environs...

Is a more westward track a possibility???

[dexterlabio]

^if you look at the 700-850 mb level, there is a low feature in North Asia that is expected to track east and likely to weaken the STR. But I'm not sure if it will be deep enough to weaken the western portion of the ridge and allow Usagi to track more poleward. The GFDN model still shows a westward solution, but we shall see.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just made my latest video update on this rapidly growing Typhoon.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hy2JuzYAV4k[/youtube]

[mrbagyo]

^if you look at the 700-850 mb level, there is a low feature in North Asia that is expected to track east and likely to weaken the STR. But I'm not sure if it will be deep enough to weaken the western portion of the ridge and allow Usagi to track more poleward. The GFDN model still shows a westward solution, but we shall see.

ah yeah, saw it... the low near lake Baikal... let's see if it will weaken the ridge.
but for a couple of times this year, many mid lat trough was expected to weaken the STRs, but didn't happen...
as a result - most of our TC's reached China...and a decreased number of re-curvers.

[RL3AO]

SSD: Raw 6.0, final 5.0 due to constraints
JTWC: Raw 5.5, final 4.5 due to constraints.

[euro6208]

SSD: Raw 6.0, final 5.0 due to constraints
JTWC: Raw 5.5, final 4.5 due to constraints.

Latest SSD advanced Dvorak estimate has Raw at 6.6!
Current Satellite estimate at 102 knots!

truly impressive...

[Ntxw]

Finally something worthy this month for us weather enthusiasts to watch. I'm sick of Atlantic wannabe canes, if this storm was over in the Atlantic basin there would probably be 10 posts of how it has a "pinhole" eye (isn't really) but still! Really unfortunate there's no recon...

[Extratropical94]

Up to 75 knots
thats a 30 mbar drop and a 30 knot wind speed increase in the last 21 hours (since 17/1800Z), so borderline RI.

WTPQ21 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1319 USAGI (1319)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 17.3N 129.1E GOOD
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 18.4N 126.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 201200UTC 19.9N 123.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 211200UTC 21.3N 120.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[wxman57]

Looks about 95 kts to me. Nearly a Cat 3.

[Ptarmigan]

An impressive storm. I think Usagi could be rapidly intensifying.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 SEP 2013 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 17:16:29 N Lon : 128:50:29 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 961.1mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 5.3 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -18.7C Cloud Region Temp : -76.1C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.0T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 75km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 27.4 degrees

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 90kts.

17W USAGI 130918 1800 17.2N 128.6E WPAC 90 956

[Extratropical94]

18Z intensity drops to 955 mbar, winds stay at 75 kts 10-min

WTPQ21 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1319 USAGI (1319)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 17.3N 128.7E GOOD
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 18.6N 126.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 201800UTC 20.2N 123.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 211800UTC 21.6N 119.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[euro6208]

ahhh

JTWC at 90 knots seems reasonable at the moment...