ATL: KAREN - Models

[ronjon]

Geez where is everyone? 12z GFDL - 972 mb at 70 kts into west side of Mobile Bay.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2013100112-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

suspect that the models will continue an eastward trend. if this doesn't go over the Yuc, it could develop a little more, at least until the front gets closer and starts to rip it apart with increased shear. We may see a TS that turns into a strung out big rainmaker on the FL west coast and big bend area over the weekend.
which sucks, as I am on vacation from Fri-Tues, and it looks like much of that time will be rainy now.

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[jlauderdal]

Geez where is everyone? 12z GFDL - 972 mb at 70 kts into west side of Mobile Bay.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2013100112-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

this storm has a very narrow target audience based on the modeling

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS never gets the center of Vorticity any further west than 87.5W before turning it more NE. Wonder if the shear will be less that far east?

Dean see the 200 mb winds I posted from the GFS in 96 hrs in the other thread. Not bad over the eastern GOM.

Thanks, think that is where this could become a bit deeper.

[Janie2006]

Rather difficult for me to be all that interested in it at the moment. Certainly earlier the models were overdoing the intensity, I think WxMan nailed that. Timing will be critical here with the strong trough moving in from the northwest. Bottom line, and check with your friendly neigbourhood NWS for the official stuff, I think it's a sheared mess by the time it approaches the Gulf Coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Don't like the trend for us here in the central FL Panhandle in way of some intensity models and tracks.

[Dean4Storms]

12z Euro never does anything with it so it stays in the lower level flow toward SW LA.

[gatorcane]

Euro and GFS still aren't that bullish, though the GFS shows a weak to moderate TS headed for the big bend area of Florida. We have seen far too often the GFDL and HWRF overdo the intensity.

[Stormcenter]

If you blend the GFS and EURO's latest run you have an approximate AL./FL border landfall of whatever develops. It seems reasonable IMO.

[SunnyThoughts]

Watching here in Pensacola, hopefully for the most part its just rain.

[Javlin]

Geez where is everyone? 12z GFDL - 972 mb at 70 kts into west side of Mobile Bay.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2013100112-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

this storm has a very narrow target audience based on the modeling

I don't think it's that so much it's that everthing thus far this year has been of little signifiance coming from this region;the ATL basin has not been conducive to development this season.

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS stays with weak TS into FL Panhandle....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100118/gfs_mslp_wind_watl.html

[blp]

Geez where is everyone? 12z GFDL - 972 mb at 70 kts into west side of Mobile Bay.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2013100112-invest97l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

I think everyone is waiting for it to develop. The GFDL and HWRF are not the best to look at since they overhype systems. People will come around once something forms. 2013 has brought a new reality to the board.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Think the correct term should be IF something forms Hard to go against the euro and even the gfs for that matter as they have been pretty good with non- developing systems in the gulf this year.

[ROCK]

For once in my 2k tenure I will have to agree with Mike but don't tell him that...

Like to see the EURO run tonight just to be sure.

[chaser1]

Rather difficult for me to be all that interested in it at the moment. Certainly earlier the models were overdoing the intensity, I think WxMan nailed that. Timing will be critical here with the strong trough moving in from the northwest. Bottom line, and check with your friendly neigbourhood NWS for the official stuff, I think it's a sheared mess by the time it approaches the Gulf Coast.

I think its taking on a little better shape right now. Uh oh, is that some 5-10 knot westerly winds approaching? (yawn...) Probably as good a time to hit the sack. Why wait up a few hours just to see its own convection collapse on itself

[Sanibel]

Edit: Wrong thread.

[ROCK]

0Z CMC from last night was like the EURO and into SW LA....slower with the front. Looks like a west trend taking place....

[ROCK]

06Z NAVGEM sends it way west before the front catches it and strings it out over LA...a lot further west than prior runs....

06Z NAM send it into SW LA before the front catches it. slower with the front once again.....

[Aric Dunn]

essentially the same story as with every other system if we get a deeper system its quite likely a more east track.. similar to the runs a couple days ago into the big bend.. and if weak likely central LA