BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

[stormkite]

Date : 10 OCT 2013 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 15:18:05 N Lon : 90:26:19 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 948.9mb/112.4kt

[mrbagyo]

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TXIO24 KNES 100909
TCSNIO

A. 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 15.2N

D. 90.6E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG EMBEDDED IN WHITE YIELDS A DT
OF 6.5 AFTER A PLUS 0.5 ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 4.5 AND PT IS LIMITED TO
5.0. FT IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND THE 6HR AVERAGE DT OF
5.92. CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN FT TO 1.0 IN 6HRS, 2.0 IN 18HRS,
AND 2.5 IN 24HRS WERE BROKEN. THE CONSTRAINT LIMITING THE DIFFERENCE IN
MET AND FT TO 1.0 WAS BROKEN.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ


meanwhile ...
the JTWC

TPIO10 PGTW 100906

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 15.2N

D. 90.6E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
WHITE (+0.5 ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. PT WAS 6.0;
MET WAS 4.0. DBO CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 1.0 IN 6HRS)

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0317Z 14.7N 91.0E MMHS
10/0410Z 14.7N 91.1E MMHS
10/2141Z 14.4N 91.6E MMHS


LONG

[Alyono]

I am LOL at JTWCs prog reasoning. Have a read... they said that 65 KT is the HIGH end of Dvorak estimates

What estimates are they looking at? The high end is 115 KT!

[mrbagyo]

how come the intensity is still at 65 knot???
Phailin must be at least 100 knots by now.

[wxman57]

how come the intensity is still at 65 knot???
Phailin must be at least 100 knots by now.

Because JTWC is somewhat lacking in the ability to estimate intensity. Dvorak is closer to 6 than to 4, making Phailin at least a Cat 3 and possibly a Cat 4 now. it was probably aa hurricane intensity 12 or more hours ago.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 OCT 2013 Time : 110000 UTC
Lat : 15:20:53 N Lon : 90:19:49 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 948.9mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.0 6.6

[RobWESTPACWX]

how come the intensity is still at 65 knot???
Phailin must be at least 100 knots by now.

Your talking about JTWC, whats funny ( not so much funny as serious) is that the agency everyone is using in India has it even weaker than 65kts. Right now around 45kts.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/tcac.png

[wxman57]

I see 65kts on IMD's latest advisory, which is still quite ridiculous.

[Alyono]

No weaker than 110 KT right now

[RobWESTPACWX]

I see 65kts on IMD's latest advisory, which is still quite ridiculous.

They just updated it minutes ago, big jump from earlier today where they had it around 35kts. hehe.

Im just happy their forecast is pretty serious. Gusting over 200kph prior to landfall.

[euro6208]

seems like both agencies are having trouble with phailin...

REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 90.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED
TO DEEPEN AS THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND AN EYE FEATURE HAS FORMED. A
100211Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE TIGHT CURVATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING AS WELL AS THE ESTABLISHED EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE DEEPENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT WESTWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 02B IS EXPECTED
TO STAY ON THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS
THE BAY OF BENGAL AND MAKES LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM,
INDIA. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, PEAKING AT 95 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL,
TC PAHILIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT DRAGS ACROSS THE RUGGED INDIAN
TERRAIN, DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
NNNN

TPIO10 PGTW 100906

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 15.2N

D. 90.6E

E. THREE/MET7

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY
WHITE (+0.5 ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG) YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. PT WAS 6.0;
MET WAS 4.0. DBO CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 1.0 IN 6HRS)

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0317Z 14.7N 91.0E MMHS
10/0410Z 14.7N 91.1E MMHS
10/2141Z 14.4N 91.6E MMHS


LONG

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This is at least a 115kt cyclone. It's very well-organized on satellite. The core is absolutely monstrous.

[euro6208]

Latest JTWC ADT...

2013OCT10 120000 6.6 933.9 129.6 6.6 6.7 7.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 10.94 -78.85 EYE 17 IR 62.5 15.39 -90.22 COMBO MET7 42.0

Current Intensity Estimate

RAW T



approaching monstrous levels of intensity...

The untapped warm waters of the BOB has it's lid blown off...

It seems like the BOB wants to make a statement towards the WPAC saying we can do it too while the other basins are dying...

[RobWESTPACWX]

HMM IMD all over the place now showing winds up to 130kph. Meaning "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm" Now

[RobWESTPACWX]

Unfortunatly I have no power in the BOB for changing the titles. So ya. Its stronger than a Cyclonic Storm at this time. That indicates its a weak Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

This is at least a 115kt cyclone. It's very well-organized on satellite. The core is absolutely monstrous.

i'd go with 125 knots based on all data...

[euro6208]

Unfortunatly I have no power in the BOB for changing the titles. So ya. Its stronger than a Cyclonic Storm at this time. That indicates its a weak Tropical Storm

weak tropical storm? how awful...

[HURAKAN]

PHAILIN at 0715Z

[AJC3]

Pretty sick M/I pass. Core looks more like Charley than what's being advertised.

[Alyono]

I went 110 KT in the latest advisory I just issued

One thing, watch for an EWRC in the next 24 hours

[RobWESTPACWX]

Unfortunatly I have no power in the BOB for changing the titles. So ya. Its stronger than a Cyclonic Storm at this time. That indicates its a weak Tropical Storm

weak tropical storm? how awful...

Based on the RSMC should now be labeled "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm" thats all.