ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[Hammy]

Just my 2 cents it's been like watching ground hog day every potential system is getting hammered by sinking dry air. And the cooler than normal waters of Portugal have had negative affect on development durring the season.

I will point out that neither are a factor with this system as SSTs are around average and its embedded within a fairly moist area.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwne.gif
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg

What will likely do this in is the constant unrelenting wind shear that we've seen all season, with >30kts to the west.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013100900, , BEST, 0, 104N, 264W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[gatorcane]

Not looking that bad...saved loop:

[Hammy]

Not looking that bad...saved loop:

seeing the longer loop there, I've got to wonder if there are actually two systems there that are merging.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND
SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N27W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO
14N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[Gustywind]

Michael Lowry, Hurricane Specialist, The Weather Channel

Oct 9, 2013 5:42 am ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/


- Invest 98-L in the eastern Atlantic a little better organized

INVEST 98-L


The broad area of low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic has become a little better organized. A satellite pass from late Tuesday afternoon showed a weak surface circulation and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated around the surface low. That said, 98-L has an uphill climb with unfavorable winds squarely in its path. While some slow development is possible significant strengthening remains unlikely.

[Gustywind]

Eye on the Tropics

http://www.weather.com/video/eye-on-the-tropics-6584

[Gustywind]

Latest from SSD...

09/1200 UTC 10.8N 27.7W TOO WEAK 98L
09/0545 UTC 10.4N 28.2W T1.0/1.0 98L

[gatorcane]

Saved VIS loop. Nice cyclonic spin, but lacking convection...the story of 2013...

[cycloneye]

No change in the % at 2 PM TWO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[Gustywind]

2 PM TWD.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N27W EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
IN THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY. SPIRAL RAINBANDS ARE NOTICEABLE IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-15N BETWEEN 23W-31W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW
CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[cycloneye]

Nice turning but will it develop before the shear gets it is the question.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013100918, , BEST, 0, 105N, 273W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has tropical wave passing north of NE Caribbean next Thursday. Probably more likely than it developing into a TS.

[cycloneye]

Nothing new at 8 PM TWO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...BUT SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N27W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW IS THE FOCAL POINT OF A
BROADER MONSOONAL GYRE WITH INFLUENCE FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 23W-
37W. THE GYRE CONTINUES TO LIE BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PROVIDING AMPLE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 28W-33W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 23W-35W.

[RL3AO]

BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE.

What? No way. Didn't see that coming.

[TJRE]

Alex..... I'll take less conducive .... for a hundred please!

Just another>>>> One- Day Wonder????




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Floater
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/98L/98L_floater.html

Eumetsat
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/PRODUCTS/MPE/AMERICA/index.htm


TAFB 72hrs
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/



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[cycloneye]

Up to 50%/50%

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...ABOUT SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW BEFORE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL
WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED NEAR THE DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.