ATL: GABRIELLE - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Hot tower started firing at 345Z

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... bean.0.jpg

Latest update from GOES had it still firing at 715Z

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... bean.0.jpg


SE of the est COC

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 040815.jpg


Core temp est at 3C at 0100Z

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 8_TANO.GIF


The long duration hot tower will really heat this quickly.

Next 12 hrs will be very interesting.

May want to check hatches in PR.

[GCANE]

Lots of good available energy with this.

TPW is increasing and seeing LIs down to -6.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... t72hrs.gif

[GCANE]

Hot tower finished firing at 745Z.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... bean.0.jpg

4 hr duration - impressive.

Lots of latent heating went into the core.

[GCANE]

Good, cold overshooting tops

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

At 815Z, was measuring about -75C.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes_r/provi ... _image.png


Might see another burst at sunrise.

[GCANE]

Looks to me that ULL at about 24N 44W is coming together pretty quickly.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/atlanimwv.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8vor1.GIF

Firing off some convection as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

In a good position for creating a poleward outflow channel.

Once 97L starts rolling, I expect to see the convection at 15N to 20W, 55W to 60W begin to dissipate.

[Gustywind]

From SSD...


04/0545 UTC 16.2N 64.0W T1.5/1.5 97L
03/2345 UTC 15.4N 64.0W T1.5/1.5 97L

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 04 2013


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A 1008 MB CENTER NEAR 15N64W
CONTINUES ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS
DETACHED AND CONTINUED A WESTWARD TRACK. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 62W-66W AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT INTERACTION
WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO COULD INHIBIT
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO
LATER TODAY.

[HurricaneDREW92]

I will be very surprised chances aren't up at 8 AM.

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com

9/4/2013 6:00:07 AM

http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean and another tropical wave just east of the Lesser Antilles are generating a large area of disturbed weather that covers a large part of the eastern Caribbean.

The main area of organized convection is to the south and east of Hispaniola. This low and the large cyclonic flow around it will interact with the higher terrain of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico during the next 2-3 days which may inhibit development.

Nevertheless, recent satellite imagery has shown convection becoming better organized around a low center, and this system may become better organized today, possibly becoming a tropical depression or storm.

There is an area of shear draped across the northern Caribbean and this system will have to interact with that through the rest of the week and into Saturday which should inhibit further development. This shear should diminish on Saturday night and Sunday allowing the system to re-develop north of Hispaniola around Sunday and Monday of next week.
Computer forecasts show support for development and take this system north, then northeast. This does not appear to be a path that would bring any direct impacts to the United States.


By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski, updated by Meteorologist Steve Travis

[ScottNAtlanta]

Rotation quite evident on SJU long range radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com

September 04, 2013; 6:00 AM

Low pressure south of Puerto Rico will bring heavy rain to the area and will be watched for development.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 1683763362

[CourierPR]

This system seems to be coming together now. It sure took its sweet time.

[ninel conde]

interesting scenario. if it develops its a threat to the US. IF the eastern one develops its out to sea.

[Gustywind]

For those who are interested. Here is the first datas concerning the effects of 97L in Guadeloupe.

Guadeloupe stays in yellow because another active twave east of the Leewards should spread on us... till Friday morning if the wet weather scenario continues, and... is expected given the latest weather forecast of our Pro Mets of Meteo-France 6AM.

Map related to the yellow alert: http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

Weather Forecast:rarrow: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf (French version)

Level of vigilance: yellow.

Danger: Heavy rains and thunderstorms.

Validity: until Thursday 5 September included.

Current situation:The weather situation is influenced by two disturbed systems: one crossed the Guadeloupe yesterday and now moves in the sea of the Caribbean to Puerto Rico with a potential low pressure; the other located on the nearby Atlantic will concern our island this morning.

Forecasts: After a lull last night, rains become again more frequent today and can take locally a stormy character. Rainfall values are expected to reach 50 to 100 millimeters in some areas during 12 hours. No improvement is expected by the end of Thursday.

Observed data:
Surveys of the gauges over the last 24 hours:

-Le Raizet Abymes: 29 mm
-Baie-Mahault ( Convenance) : 46 mm
-Les Mamelles: 134 mm
-Pointe-Noire Bellevue: 74 mm
-Moule (Lauréal): 35 mm
-Sainte-Rose Cluny: 31 mm
-Capesterre Belle-Eau (Neufchâteau): 64 mm
-Petite-Terre: 32 mm

Next newsletter: Wednesday September 4, 2013 at 5PM.

[CourierPR]

[quote="HurricaneDREW92"]I will be very surprised chances aren't up at 8 AM.

Is that a center I see popping on visible satellite?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

interesting scenario. if it develops its a threat to the US. IF the eastern one develops its out to sea.

The two areas seem to be getting closer and closer together, maybe 300 miles apart now. Maybe there will only be one area at some point soon.

[ninel conde]

interesting scenario. if it develops its a threat to the US. IF the eastern one develops its out to sea.

The two areas seem to be getting closer and closer together, maybe 300 miles apart now. Maybe there will only be one area at some point soon.

yea, only about 4 degrees apart now and getting closer.

[Alyono]

interesting scenario. if it develops its a threat to the US. IF the eastern one develops its out to sea.

little threat to the USA, regardless as to what JB said. That trough is far too strong

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 04 2013

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 15N64W LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
63W-65W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN
62W-67W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND SPREAD
OVER PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.

[tolakram]

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