ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[ROCK]

Thanks Scott I didn't know they were flying those recon flights yet..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Thanks Scott I didn't know they were flying those recon flights yet..

With a slow season thus far I guess they can spend more on this one... The Gulfstream missions tend to really aid the modeling when their info gets added. I will be really interested if we see any major swings in the models after they digest all that information

[CrazyC83]

I can definitely see the developing eye now on visible satellite...although not on infrared yet.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I can definitely see the developing eye now on visible satellite...although not on infrared yet.

Yep...sure looks like one is trying to pop out there. The next 3 or 4 future frames will tell if thats a trend or us looking at the screen too much

[SeGaBob]

There appears to be a very faint eye in the last few frames of this loop... at least I'm not the only one that thinks they see one anyway.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/imagery/vis-animated.gif

[Alyono]

does not yet appear to be an eye... but maybe an overshooting cloud top. That said, an eye could form later today

[Time_Zone]

Is it trying to clear out an eye? looks like it to me, but I could be wrong.

[SeGaBob]

Is it trying to clear out an eye? looks like it to me, but I could be wrong.

It looks like it to me too but Alyono says no for now...

[vbhoutex]

A quick question for our astute pro-mets and anyone else who has enough knowledge to answer it.
How confident are you that the ridge over TX/LA is going to hold and keep Ingrid on the current forecast track? I always worry when I see a steadily strengthening TC moving towards a ridge that I am under since there are some indications that it could start slipping to the East or be eroded by incoming SWs and open up a weakness the TC could sniff out. I so feel for whoever is under this very wet and strengthening TC at landfall and even after.

[jinftl]

eye may be forming per NHC...

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST. INGRID IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE
WEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL
REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND INFORMATION FROM THE METEOROLOGIST
ONBOARD THE NOAA JET SUGGEST THAT AN EYE COULD FORMING. INGRID WILL
LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.

[Time_Zone]

Is it trying to clear out an eye? looks like it to me, but I could be wrong.

It looks like it to me too but Alyono says no for now...

I'll take his word for it.

[Alyono]

A quick question for our astute pro-mets and anyone else who has enough knowledge to answer it.
How confident are you that the ridge over TX/LA is going to hold and keep Ingrid on the current forecast track? I always worry when I see a steadily strengthening TC moving towards a ridge that I am under since there are some indications that it could start slipping to the East or be eroded by incoming SWs and open up a weakness the TC could sniff out. I so feel for whoever is under this very wet and strengthening TC at landfall and even after.

still no indications of a Texas track. Still looking at a catastrophic flood near Tampico

[jinftl]

From Dr. Jeff Masters's blog this morning:


All of the models predict that Ingrid's current northerly motion will be short-lived, as a ridge of high pressure builds in to its north and forces the storm nearly due west into Mexico on Monday. The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping some of its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand,. Additional heavy rains affected the region early this week, leading to flash flooding and multiple landslides, including one massive landslide in the town of Manzanatitla on Monday that killed eight people. It won't take much rain to generate a catastrophic flood disaster, and 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", are expected.

A quick question for our astute pro-mets and anyone else who has enough knowledge to answer it.
How confident are you that the ridge over TX/LA is going to hold and keep Ingrid on the current forecast track? I always worry when I see a steadily strengthening TC moving towards a ridge that I am under since there are some indications that it could start slipping to the East or be eroded by incoming SWs and open up a weakness the TC could sniff out. I so feel for whoever is under this very wet and strengthening TC at landfall and even after.

still no indications of a Texas track. Still looking at a catastrophic flood near Tampico

[HurricaneDREW92]

It's an eye forming for sure



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[ROCK]

...I am having to pause as well VB.....the loop the globals are showing as its about to make landfall back down into the BOC is very interesting....any delay allows the ridge to back off further down the line. HPC is going with the EURO ensembles....and if you look at them....well I will let you look at them and you can see what I mean...


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[JGrin87]

anyone got a link to microwave data?

[jinftl]

Is that the eye popping out on north part of 'green' on image below

[ndale]

A quick question for our astute pro-mets and anyone else who has enough knowledge to answer it.
How confident are you that the ridge over TX/LA is going to hold and keep Ingrid on the current forecast track? I always worry when I see a steadily strengthening TC moving towards a ridge that I am under since there are some indications that it could start slipping to the East or be eroded by incoming SWs and open up a weakness the TC could sniff out. I so feel for whoever is under this very wet and strengthening TC at landfall and even after.

Thanks for asking that vbhoutex. I was still waiting for a reply to my question about how accurate models are in predicting the steadfastness or movement of ridges.

[AJC3]

anyone got a link to microwave data?

NRL mosaic of 87-91GHz M/I passes.

http://tinyurl.com/lmngmzu

[Hurricane Andrew]

I see an eye trying to form.