CPAC: GIL - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Gil almost looked to be RI'ing but a convective busts has not helped.

[Yellow Evan]

[brunota2003]

On those visible images, Gil almost looks like a strong Cat 2 or Cat 3. But look at IR...that tells a completely different story. Reds do not wrap all the way around, so most likely 70 or 75 knots.

[Kingarabian]

On those visible images, Gil almost looks like a strong Cat 2 or Cat 3. But look at IR...that tells a completely different story. Reds do not wrap all the way around, so most likely 70 or 75 knots.

MIMIC loops show that the eye wall is reforming once again. Second time today.

[Cyclenall]

Gil certainly looks very good. Could get it's act together very quickly.

*Loop Cut*

Any chance the thing in front of it makes it triplets? Could you imagine the number of posts if this was happening in the Atlantic?

Of course you never see this in the Atlantic, even those years that had a train of 5 systems at once in the basin...they weren't this close I don't think. Why doesn't something like this happen in the Caribbean? Too interesting, says the tropics...

Stewart acknowledged that the intensity may be too low, so I agree with you, CrazyC83. Man I wish we had people like Stewart working at the CPHC. Look at how detailed that discussion is.

It is too low, I cannot believe they went with 40-45 knots last night when there was almost a complete eyewall built with very rapid swirling convection near the center. That's at a bare minimum around 60 knots based on historical record of Epac systems. I've seen 70 knot hurricanes that were completely messed up with organization yet this beauty was held that low!? I actually think the CPHC had way more detailed discussions.

that pic would make me think a strong el nino is ongoing.

Did your head explode when Hurricane Celia became a category 5 in the month of June during an La Nina in the eastern Pacific?

Eye is about to pop open on visible imagery. Looks well into hurricane strength.

Agreed, I wouldn't be shocked if this was actually 80 knots right now. Its a small hurricane that is strengthening rapidly.

My gut is telling me that this could be our first major of the season in the EPAC. Looks pretty good right now.

Given the 65 knt forecast peak from the NHC, I'm not sold on it yet. Quite possible though.

I think this has a solid chance at major strength too. I'd go with 90-95 knots for peak for now. I don't know why the NHC is going with such low estimates and even slower strengthening forecasts when its clearly exploding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 13.9N 120.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 14.3N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 14.7N 124.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 15.0N 126.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 15.3N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 15.5N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

I don't get the 5 knot increase only. This is the most conservative Epac forecast this season.

Pinhole eye :—) *Image Cut*

That's not a pin-hole eye, this term is becoming more overused than annular hurricane.

yeah...think the NHC is a touch low in their peak intensity.

[RL3AO]

That's not a pin-hole eye, this term is becoming more overused than annular hurricane.

I agree. Its an annular hurricane with a pinhole eye.

[Yellow Evan]

That's not a pin-hole eye, this term is becoming more overused than annular hurricane.

I agree. Its an annular hurricane with a pinhole eye.

I think they are the two most overused terms with hurricanes. It's really nothing big anyway sans extreme cases. Anyhow, I think they'll go with 70-75 knts at 3z.

[Kingarabian]

Gil earlier today:

[Yellow Evan]

not as good now though

[cycloneye]

Up to 70kts.

EP, 07, 2013080100, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1212W, 70, 990, HU

[mrbagyo]

looks like overshooting tops bursting right in the middle..

[supercane4867]

One of the longest remarks I've seen

TXPZ21 KNES 010032
TCSENP

A. 07E (GIL)

B. 01/0000Z

C. 13.9N

D. 121.2W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...SMALL EYE WAS SEEN AND MAXIMIZED A DT OF 4.5 AT
2100Z...THOUGH EMBEDDED CENTER AFTERWARD ALSO SUPPORTS DT OF 4.5 FOR
EMBEDDING IN LG... THE METHOD CANNOT BE EMPLOYED DUE TO RULES OF FT
EQUAL TO 3.5 12HRS PRIOR. SINCE GIL IS VERY SMALL IN SIZE THE CDO ONLY
MEASURES 1.25 DEGREES IN DIAMETER FOR A CF OF 3.0 AND BF COULD ONLY ADD
AN ADDITIONAL .5 GENEROUSLY FOR THAT DT METHOD TO BE 3.5. OLD RELIABLE
BANDING USING THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY MEASURES 1.1 OR
1.2 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 4.0...GIVEN ALL METHODS/STYLES THIS AVERAGES
WELL FOR OFFICIAL DT TO BE 4.0. MET IS UNREALISTIC 3.0. PT IS FORCED
INTO 3.5 AS IT CANNOT BE GREATER THAN .5 FROM THE MET. FT IS BASED ON
DT BUT THIS IS ALSO THE MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE D1.0 IN 6HRS ANYWAY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

31/1946Z 13.7N 120.6W TMI
31/2115Z 13.9N 120.9W AMSU


...GALLINA

[Yellow Evan]

Up to 70kts.

EP, 07, 2013080100, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1212W, 70, 990, HU

Seems fairly fair IMO given the cloud tops overshooting the eye.

[cycloneye]

Peak is now 85kts.


HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013
800 PM PDT WED JUL 31 2013

GIL HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FOR THE PAST 24-30 HR. A SMALL
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED WITH EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COLDER
THAN -80C...AND THERE ARE RAGGED OUTER BANDS NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE CDO. HOWEVER...THE EYE SEEN PREVIOUSLY HAS DISAPPEARED...
SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE INTENSIFICATION RATE HAS
SLOWED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65
KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
70 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/10. GIL CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY
THE FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH 72 HR. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GIL ON A GENERAL WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK. AFTER THAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS SHOW A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF 20N NEAR 140W THAT
SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE GIL TO SLOW ITS FORWARD
MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS. THE FIRST IS
THAT THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION...SIMILAR TO THE
GFS...WOULD BRING THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO STRONGER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 24-48 HR. A MORE SOUTHERLY MOTION...
SIMILAR TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WOULD KEEP GIL OVER
WARMER WATER AND IN A LESS HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SECOND
FACTOR IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS
OVER OR NOT...WITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWING A DECREASED CHANCE OF CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...
EXCEPT AT 24 HR WHEN THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE ABOVE
THE GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT GIL CONTINUES TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY FOR 12-24 HR AND GETS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 14.2N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 14.6N 123.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 14.9N 125.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 15.2N 127.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 15.4N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 15.5N 132.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 15.5N 138.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

About time NHC is being aggressive with intensification.

[CrazyC83]

Tough forecast! Although I would go with higher end estimates, and not blends, when with small eyes since Dvorak does poorly with small storms. I'd have gone 80 kt for this advisory.

[Yellow Evan]

Tough forecast! Although I would go with higher end estimates, and not blends, when with small eyes since Dvorak does poorly with small storms. I'd have gone 80 kt for this advisory.

I would have gone with 75 knts, but 70 knts is fair. BTW. 77 knt, the high end, rounds to 75.

[meriland23]

is it pretty inevitable that it will dissipate?

[Yellow Evan]

is it pretty inevitable that it will dissipate?

At some point, yes. No storm lasts forever. But seriously I know what you meant, it's not moving fast enough to hit Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

Interestingly the NHC now has this entering the CPAC as a Tropical Storm.