ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[ROCK]

the greatest vort is the off the coast of Honduras....been watching it all day. Should be close to Belize by tomorrow evening on its way to the BOC.....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[tropicwatch]

The upper level winds are definitely looking better.



Now if the winds in the upper levels come down a bit, I think we will see some more convection firing over night.

Those aren't upper level winds, ok? that's wind shear on that chart. Wind shear is calculated as the difference in wind speed from the lower layer (925 mb to 700 mb) and the upper layer (300 mb to 150 mb). But your idea is correct - wind shear to the west and northwest of this system has to come down or it won't be able to develop.

Posted wrong image, have corrected.

[wxman57]

Good discussion by Levi Cowan this evening. He makes some good points about initialization of the GFS/Canadian with respect to the position of the vortex. A track into Mexico is certainly possible.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... in-hazard/

[ozonepete]

the greatest vort is the off the coast of Honduras....been watching it all day. Should be close to Belize by tomorrow evening on its way to the BOC.....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

But the models dissolve that area of vorticity and develop the one north of it. And anyway, it's still too early. We have to at least see the 00Z runs when the models will have some better initialization.

[Alyono]

I'd lean toward the northern vorticity due to the SW shear that is expected

[ROCK]

the greatest vort is the off the coast of Honduras....been watching it all day. Should be close to Belize by tomorrow evening on its way to the BOC.....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

But the models dissolve that area of vorticity and develop the one north of it. And anyway, it's still too early. We have to at least see the 00Z runs when the models will have some better initialization.

well the BAMMS ran for 0Z initilized the correct vort and basically follows the path of the EURO/UKMET/NAM...

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater is up

[gatorcane]

Good discussion by Levi Cowan this evening. He makes some good points about initialization of the GFS/Canadian with respect to the position of the vortex. A track into Mexico is certainly possible.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... in-hazard/

Good video as usual. His argument about a low forming further south along the wave axis because of how the GFS model pressure forecasts for the northern part of the wave around Jamaica have not been verifying so far (off by a few millobars) is interesting...

[NDG]

the greatest vort is the off the coast of Honduras....been watching it all day. Should be close to Belize by tomorrow evening on its way to the BOC.....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

But the models dissolve that area of vorticity and develop the one north of it. And anyway, it's still too early. We have to at least see the 00Z runs when the models will have some better initialization.

well the BAMMS ran for 0Z initilized the correct vort and basically follows the path of the EURO/UKMET/NAM...

According to this it was started in between two H85 vorticities. In another words, there is no H85 vorticity where the 0z models were started. I get the feeling that as time goes they will be moved to the vorticity WSW of Jamaica tracking WNW towards the Cayman Islands, exactly as the GFS shows.

[ozonepete]

the greatest vort is the off the coast of Honduras....been watching it all day. Should be close to Belize by tomorrow evening on its way to the BOC.....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

But the models dissolve that area of vorticity and develop the one north of it. And anyway, it's still too early. We have to at least see the 00Z runs when the models will have some better initialization.

well the BAMMS ran for 0Z initilized the correct vort and basically follows the path of the EURO/UKMET/NAM...

Well of course we first have to throw the NAM out. I'm not sure why anyone would ever use it based on its record. I also watched Levi's forecast video just now and the one thing that bothered me was that based on his own logic I would have made it 50/50 BOC or central GOM coast, not biased towards Mexico as he chose. He didn't give good enough reasons for his bias, imho. Anyway, I still think the main point is that it's too early to say - we just have to wait for the 00Z runs and even then there very well will still be model disagreement.
Btw, the stretching of the system as it gets into the GOM was very smart of him to point out. That has been clearly indicated by some of the models, especially this morning's GFS, but no one has discussed it. I'm just a little surprised that he went into that aspect without mentioning that this morning's 12Z GFS run indicated that very clearly. Since the 18Z run of the GFS has dropped that scenario (which he didn't mention), I am extra curious what the 00Z run of the GFS and ECMWF say.

[ozonepete]

Oh, and in full disclosure, I am a big fan of Levi. He's incredibly smart, and incredibly knowledgeable for his age. His only drawback is that he needs more experience, but he is the future of hurricane forecasting and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he is director of the NHC one day.

[Dean4Storms]

Did you see the ECM Ensembles from 12z Ozonepete? They also split the energy this run, equally toward the northern Gulf and toward Mexico. Levi points it out a bit talking about the trough catching some of the energy.


I'm a bit leery of leaning with the ECM with its record this year of missing Cyclogenesis. It's only real model friend with the BOC is the UKMET and I don't even pay attention to the NAM in this scenario.

[Gustywind]

Oh, and in full disclosure, I am a big fan of Levi. He's incredibly smart, and incredibly knowledgeable for his age. His only drawback is he needs more experience, but he is the future of hurricane forecasting and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he is director of the NHC one day.

very deep analysis from Levi. Hey, let's hope that Levi read that, he should be very happy about your nice remarks Levi are you there?

[ozonepete]

Did you see the ECM Ensembles from 12z Ozonepete? They also split the energy this run, equally toward the northern Gulf and toward Mexico. Levi points it out a bit talking about the trough catching some of the energy.


I'm a bit leery of leaning with the ECM with its record this year of missing Cyclogenesis. It's only real model friend with the BOC is the UKMET and I don't even pay attention to the NAM in this scenario.

Yeah I did, Dean. As I said, I was just a little surprised that he didn't mention that the GFS saw this as well. I also feel that the ECMWF is on a little thinner ground this season given its record so far and the fact that the GFS is doing better so far. After all the GFS had upgrades that seem to have improved it and the ECMWF hasn't had any.

[Sanibel]

I'm scratching my head, this looks like it is organizing fairly quickly when you think of what things looked like just this morning.

It has the appearance of something that (possibly) exceeds expectation. See if it snaps together quickly tomorrow. See if the Pacific feeder-bands get deep.


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[Dean4Storms]

That convection west of Jamaica is taking off tonight and appears to be under an Anticyclone, I see no shear there. That alone is likely to lower surfaces pressure there. I'm betting with the NAVGEM and GFS this go around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Javlin]

That convection west of Jamaica is taking off tonight and appears to be under an Anticyclone, I see no shearing there. That alone is likely to lower surfaces pressure there. I'm betting with the NAVGEM and GFS this go around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I am noticing that also and began wondering with the lack of an LLC it would seem to me atleast that the first area to develop one become the dominate feature.Now having said that would not the area furthest from a major landmass have the better odds?

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

looks totally organized tonight. ...that anticyclone is sitting right on top of the MLC and likely moving with it


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Sanibel]

If that's the center it's going in low into Belize and should have to organize all over after Yucatan. (If it tracks west like it's doing)

[Dean4Storms]

That convection west of Jamaica is taking off tonight and appears to be under an Anticyclone, I see no shearing there. That alone is likely to lower surfaces pressure there. I'm betting with the NAVGEM and GFS this go around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I am noticing that also and began wondering with the lack of an LLC it would seem to me atleast that the first area to develop one become the dominate feature.Now having said that would not the area furthest from a major landmass have the better odds?

It helps for sure. But the biggest factor here is convergence at the surface and divergence aloft with little or no shear with convection deepening there.