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ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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meriland23
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AtlanticWind
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Re:
Alyono wrote:new GFS at 177
http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=
holding together much better this run, though quite a bit weaker
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... _thick.gif
The old Gfs has about the same solution as the new gfs.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Out to sea toward the end. Further west on this run. This is going to be a close call. It actually brushes the Northern Bahamas at 192hr on this run so no fish per say.
Last edited by blp on Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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floridasun78
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meriland23
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meriland23
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meriland23
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336 hrs says it will his NS with 970 mb..
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floridasun78
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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
blp wrote:Out to sea toward the end. Further west on this run. This is going to be a close call. It actually brushes the Northern Bahamas at 192hr on this run so no fish per say.
Yes ,considering this is out in 7 to 8 days we could see some changes east or west with future runs.
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meriland23
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There is one thing we can conclude.. GFS is slowly backing away from the fish scenario. I was thinking this run it would curve even sooner than 18z.. just the opposite though.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
AtlanticWind wrote:blp wrote:Out to sea toward the end. Further west on this run. This is going to be a close call. It actually brushes the Northern Bahamas at 192hr on this run so no fish per say.
Yes ,considering this is out in 7 to 8 days we could see some changes east or west with future runs.
Exactly, the timing in the bahamas will be crucial and it is too far out right now.
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meriland23
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Re:
floridasun78 wrote:meriland23 i think we stop posting gfs that now out dated by new super comp gfs run
....huh???
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models
Preferably east on the future runs I don't think Dorian will be a threat to Florida due to climatology but will see hopefully it will miss the Bahamas too
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Aric Dunn
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I over the years have noticed many statistical anomolies in both interpration and conceptual understanding of many memebers here. i started out a surfer who learned weather to predict swells. i would like to take a moment to thank all those mets and well educated members on here over the years and everyone to be honest... . as odd as it sounds you all ( mets and enthuisest alike) have shaped many of us including me. so thank you all !
so back to current discussions ... there is one thing that always seems.to stand.out our collective knowledge ( no matter who.from) weeds out the best possible information.... so in regards to the current system one thing needs to be remembered though models are incredibly helpful they dont always get it right... dorian is well understood in general track atm and its a.good idea to watch and take notice to small incraments of progression.
so back to current discussions ... there is one thing that always seems.to stand.out our collective knowledge ( no matter who.from) weeds out the best possible information.... so in regards to the current system one thing needs to be remembered though models are incredibly helpful they dont always get it right... dorian is well understood in general track atm and its a.good idea to watch and take notice to small incraments of progression.
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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TheStormExpert
Re:
meriland23 wrote:There is one thing we can conclude.. GFS is slowly backing away from the fish scenario. I was thinking this run it would curve even sooner than 18z.. just the opposite though.
I wouldn't fully fall for any more westward trends in future runs of the GFS.
Last edited by TheStormExpert on Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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floridasun78
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Re: Re:
meriland23 wrote:floridasun78 wrote:meriland23 i think we stop posting gfs that now out dated by new super comp gfs run
....huh???
that met saying those one you posting are out dated because new one now coming out super comp run by noaa that show DORIAN as open wave east of bahamas
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SunnyThoughts
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Re:
meriland23 wrote:There is one thing we can conclude.. GFS is slowly backing away from the fish scenario. I was thinking this run it would curve even sooner than 18z.. just the opposite though.
Yeah, I've always heard from the pro mets that the "trends" in the models is what is important..not the actual placement of the storm at any given time..especially this far out.
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TheStormExpert
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meriland23
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Re: Re:
floridasun78 wrote:meriland23 wrote:floridasun78 wrote:meriland23 i think we stop posting gfs that now out dated by new super comp gfs run
....huh???
that met saying those one you posting are out dated because new one now coming out super comp run by noaa that show DORIAN as open wave east of bahamas
Link???
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