ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

blp · #901 Postby **blp** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:54 pm

Not a good time to be making changes :roll:

On July 30, 2013, NCEP will transition from the current operational Central Computing System (CCS) to the Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS). Live tests will be run with dissemination of data on June 25th and July 2nd. Due to the transition, there will be some product changes.

See this link for full details:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/docs/wcosseval.shtml

Hurricaneman · #902 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:54 pm

Some of the pros think that the GFS for where the ridge is is slowing this down too much near the islands

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#903 Postby **Alyono** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:54 pm

NCEP only has through 177 hrs of the new GFS run available at this time.

However, as I posted, it IS now showing Dorian as a TC on the 0Z. The wave was from 18Z

Macrocane · #904 Postby **Macrocane** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:55 pm

Dorian is looking good, with a small core and nice little banding wrapping around it. Given the small size of the storm it could reach hurricane status but it will be easy to underestimate its intensity with Dvorak and ASCAT only.

TheStormExpert · #905 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:56 pm

Latest RGB Sattelite Imagery:

Florida1118 · #906 Postby **Florida1118** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:57 pm

Looks very good to me, I think its safe to say 50kts.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

blp · #907 Postby **blp** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:58 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Some of the pros think that the GFS for where the ridge is is slowing this down too much near the islands

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I noticied that too. Seems odd considering its is clearly under the ridge. If it speeds up it will only get further west so that is a good observation. Let's see how the next runs play out.

bahamaswx · #908 Postby **bahamaswx** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:58 pm

boca wrote:Preferably east on the future runs I don't think Dorian will be a threat to Florida due to climatology but will see hopefully it will miss the Bahamas too

Seems we often find ourselves in the bullseye of the 5 day forecasts, and it (almost) never pans out. Watching with interest.

TheStormExpert · #909 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 11:58 pm

Latest WV Sattelite Imagery:

floridasun78 · #910 Postby **floridasun78** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:00 am

=quote="meriland23"]

floridasun78 wrote:
meriland23 wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:meriland23 i think we stop posting gfs that now out dated by new super comp gfs run

....huh???

that met saying those one you posting are out dated because new one now coming out super comp run by noaa that show DORIAN as open wave east of bahamas

Link???[/quote]http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_atlantic_078_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&storm=&cycle=18&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=078&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

#911 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:02 am

Aric Dunn · #912 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:03 am

i think we may be looking at a hurricane sooner rather than later... though it will be a very small system

floridasun78 · #913 Postby **floridasun78** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:05 am

Alyono wrote:http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=192&image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_atlantic_192_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&param=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=

192 hrs

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

216 hrs

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

240 hrs
so got as system again as pass by east coast
http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

264 hrs

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

288 hrs

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

300 hrs

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

312 hrs

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

324 hrs

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php? ... imageSize=

336 hrs... landfall in Newfoundland

hurricaneCW · #914 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:06 am

I'm very interested to see what Dorian will do as its intensity forecast is very low confidence. It would be quite a feat if Dorian turns out to be much stronger than just a weak to moderate tropical storm as many METS thought it would be.

#915 Postby **BigB0882** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:08 am

Just because there is a new model doesn't mean we should dump the old GFS, does it? If it is still being run then it is another one of the many models at our disposal. If someone wants to take the time to post it we should be thanking them.

meriland23 · #916 Postby **meriland23** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:15 am

BigB0882 wrote:Just because there is a new model doesn't mean we should dump the old GFS, does it? If it is still being run then it is another one of the many models at our disposal. If someone wants to take the time to post it we should be thanking them.

That is exactly what I was thinking..

cordelia667 · #917 Postby **cordelia667** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:17 am

Hi All and thank you for your responses to my questions. Living on a Caribbean Island, like St Croix, is wonderful, but been through enough Hurricanes, including Katrina, that I realize, evacuation is a moot point; so I monitor TS/Hurricanes even when TSs or Lows coming off Africa. So, I have been watching TS Dorian for some time. I too read NHC's 11 pm advisory that SSTs were actually getting warmer in Dorian's path and that due to his forward speed, he would not pull up cooler waters. Now that you all mention it, do not remember anything that would be hostile to Dorian, as he moves WNW towards my direction.

Question: If Dorian maintains his 285 degrees direction, would that not put him basically through us here in STX (St. Croix) or USVI? I would feel better if his forward movement was at least 290 or 295 degrees.

Cordelia (St Croix, USVI)

#918 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:18 am

the point is, the current GFS has just 1 more run left. We could be seeing a major jump in the GFS forecast at 12Z and not entirely due to meteorological reasons. The difference could be due to NCEP changing the model in the middle of a TS

blp · #919 Postby **blp** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:25 am

Oh boy, the CMC barely initializes it and keeps it very week throughout the run. Off to bed now.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013072500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

meriland23 · #920 Postby **meriland23** » Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:33 am

This is just a rough idea of what I think might happen.. it is just a opinion.. not a forecast.

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