ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[MaineWeatherNut]

Is this plane even going to look into the NE quad, where the strongest winds were in the NOAA3 mission? In that mission, they were about 20 kt stronger there than anywhere else...

I hope so. They really need to. But the "four" pattern could miss it.

The four pattern was for the Noaa mission... There is a Airforce recon mission going on right now.

[CrazyC83]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


got a good 20-30knt shear from west then in the midlevel you have some shear there also....

The mid-level shear is self-inflicted. The upper-level shear has been about 20 kt all along, although it has increased some this evening.

[cycloneye]

Is this plane even going to look into the NE quad, where the strongest winds were in the NOAA3 mission? In that mission, they were about 20 kt stronger there than anywhere else...

I hope so. They really need to. But the "four" pattern could miss it.

The four pattern was for the Noaa mission... There is a Airforce recon mission going on right now.

Mission is over. I thought they would make a final pass just before advisory time.

[jinftl]

The folks flying these missions are seasoned pros - there may be challenges with forecasting a storm's future, but the brave men and women who have been flying these dangerous yet vital missions for decades can size a storm up as she is at present with amazing precision - not to mention with turbulence that must be nuts at times~!

[Annie Oakley]

The folks flying these missions are seasoned pros - there may be challenges with forecasting a storm's future, but the brave men and women who have been flying these dangerous yet vital missions for decades can size a storm up as she is at present with amazing precision - not to mention with turbulence that must be nuts at times

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...INGRID A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 95.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Now forecast to be a cat 2 at landfall.

24H 16/0000Z 23.0N 96.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 23.0N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

[Hammy]

Now forecast to be a cat 2 at landfall.

24H 16/0000Z 23.0N 96.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 23.0N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

So go figure they up the intensity at landfall after I make a bet that it will weaken...

[Rgv20]

This is from the NHC discussion at 10pm..

OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THIS
CYCLE...WITH THE LATEST GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A FASTER MOTION. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD IN THIS PACKAGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE UNTIL
LANDFALL GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE INITIAL MOTION.
THIS ADJUSTMENT PUTS THE NHC FORECAST ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL...AND FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

[Annie Oakley]

Anyone...how confident are you re the Mexican Government re prepping for this storm? I have read many a good report telling how many preps are in place. Will this be enough? Meaning-will gov't preps suffice for those who will not be prepared for major flooding etc.

What I have read is that the gov't has been preparing since May.

[CrazyC83]

Once Manuel makes landfall and shreds itself over the mountains, shear should decrease due to less outflow?

[Time_Zone]

Once Manuel makes landfall and shreds itself over the mountains, shear should decrease due to less outflow?

Yes.

[CrazyC83]

Once Manuel makes landfall and shreds itself over the mountains, shear should decrease due to less outflow?

Yes.

If Ingrid can hold its own up to that time and maintain a strong inner core, I can see it RI'ing afterward...

[jinftl]

When folks dismiss and write off the 2013 season that never was - keep in mind that folks along this area of the coast of Mexico are now facing the 3rd - and strongest storm - and are forecast to receive 10 to 15 inches, up to 25 inches or more of rain in mountainous spots, against the back drop below (from Dr. Jeff Masters blog on wunderground):

The soils along the Mexican Gulf Coast in the state of Veracruz where Ingrid will be dumping some of its heaviest rains are already saturated from the rains of Tropical Depression Eight and Tropical Storm Fernand,. Additional heavy rains affected the region early this week, leading to flash flooding and multiple landslides, including one massive landslide in the town of Manzanatitla on Monday that killed eight people. It won't take much rain to generate a catastrophic flood disaster, and 10 - 15 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 25", are expected.

These folks aren't wishing for rain by way of a hurricane

[cycloneye]

Interesting exerpt from TS Manuel discussion that mentions Ingrid.

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT MANUEL LOOKS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR IN
STRUCTURE TO HURRICANE INGRID LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Better organized.

[Annie Oakley]

I have full confidence in whatever Rio Grande Valley posts. Just hoping for not too bad floods.

[Hammy]

20kts of shear and half an eyewall... Combined with the level of activity (or inactivity at times) and how the storms that formed have behaved, this season is probably one of the most bizarre that I've gone through...

[Time_Zone]

Looks like 70% of an eyewall lol

[ozonepete]

Is this plane even going to look into the NE quad, where the strongest winds were in the NOAA3 mission? In that mission, they were about 20 kt stronger there than anywhere else...

I hope so. They really need to. But the "four" pattern could miss it.

The four pattern was for the Noaa mission... There is a Airforce recon mission going on right now.

Ha ha yeah, I blew that one.