ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Interesting exerpt from TS Manuel discussion that mentions Ingrid.

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT MANUEL LOOKS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR IN
STRUCTURE TO HURRICANE INGRID LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

Fascinating stuff, Luis. You could be right that we get two landfalling hurricanes in Mexico on each coast within less than 48 hours or so. And I don't know when or if this has ever happened.

[ozonepete]

Once Manuel makes landfall and shreds itself over the mountains, shear should decrease due to less outflow?

Yes.

If Ingrid can hold its own up to that time and maintain a strong inner core, I can see it RI'ing afterward...

If the shear drops and Manuel stops interfering with the ouflow on the southern side of Ingrid, yeah it could ramp up even more.

[ozonepete]

Boy, if it weren't for those huge mountains in between them, those two would be doing a serious Fujiwhara.

[TheStormExpert]

Definitely some very cold cloud-tops currently associated with Hurricane Ingrid looking at it from the overall U.S. satellite.

[Hammy]

I'm noticing a faint white ring near the middle, is that the overshooting tops of the formative eyewall clouds?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/flash-rbtop-long.html

[ROCK]

I'm noticing a faint white ring near the middle, is that the overshooting tops of the formative eyewall clouds?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/flash-rbtop-long.html

yep thats it....looks to have taken a wobble left some...

[Alyono]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc13/ATL/10L.INGRID/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/full/20130915.0133.f18.x.91h.10LINGRID.70kts-983mb-217N-947W.56pc.html

structure is AWFUL

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah it really doesn't look very good for a hurricane right now.

[Time_Zone]

Wow sure does look like an absolute mess right now.

[JonathanBelles]

There's a more recent microwave image, and what you circled does not seem to be any part of an eyewall.

[ozonepete]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc13/ATL/10L.INGRID/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/full/20130915.0133.f18.x.91h.10LINGRID.70kts-983mb-217N-947W.56pc.html

structure is AWFUL

I removed my earlier response because I just realized your image is from 6 hours ago and I circled incorrectly. But a lot has happened since then.

[ozonepete]

There's a more recent microwave image, and what you circled does not seem to be any part of an eyewall.

Yeah I know - I took it out and issued another statement. My bad. But that mv is really old now. Can you post the newer image. I get tired of doing all of the image posting, lol.

[JonathanBelles]

[Time_Zone]

Looks terrible.

[Hurricaneman]

I could be wrong but it looks like there's a MLC to the SE of the surface low, could that be causing shear

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[ozonepete]

Thanks, Jon! I appreciate it. Too much tequila tonight out with the crowd, lol. I'm going with Alyono and the rest that structure is not good, but it's not "terrible" lol. The eye is clearly discernible on that mv sat and looks like convection is wrapping around it. It will all about the shear from here on...

[supercane4867]

Surprisingly T-number from SAB just went back to 4.0
It was down to 3.5 earlier

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20130915 0545 22.4 95.1 T4.0/4.0 10L INGRID
20130914 2345 21.7 94.6 T3.5/4.0 10L INGRID

[JonathanBelles]

Yea, it does not look terrible, but it does look like it weakened a bit over the last 6 hours. Nothing that will kill Ingrid though.

[supercane4867]

LOL

That must be the the worst T5.0 storm I've seen

AL, 10, 201309150545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 2220N, 9520W, , 3, 90, 2, 970, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, EC, I, 5, 5050 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,

[WeatherGuesser]

Interesting exerpt from TS Manuel discussion that mentions Ingrid.

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT MANUEL LOOKS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR IN
STRUCTURE TO HURRICANE INGRID LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

Fascinating stuff, Luis. You could be right that we get two landfalling hurricanes in Mexico on each coast within less than 48 hours or so. And I don't know when or if this has ever happened.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND MANUEL
COULD BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ON SUNDAY.

100 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON MONDAY...

Or maybe within 24 hours.