ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

the EURO was no help in this last run....Maybe tonights run will come in line with the GFS and give us some kind of consensus.

[djmikey]

What did the GFS show? Some os us are unable to see attachements and/or open links while at work. Thanks

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 081856
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 04 20130708
184800 1740N 06428W 6642 03652 0186 +067 -147 095026 027 /// /// 03
184830 1739N 06426W 6485 03848 0193 +052 -182 090021 024 /// /// 03
184900 1738N 06425W 6333 04043 0199 +036 -167 083019 020 /// /// 03
184930 1737N 06423W 6161 04270 0196 +025 -120 088018 019 /// /// 03
185000 1737N 06421W 6010 04470 0171 +017 -144 098018 020 /// /// 03
185030 1736N 06420W 5854 04658 0158 +003 -157 102019 020 /// /// 03
185100 1735N 06418W 5726 04829 0164 -011 -149 106017 018 /// /// 03
185130 1734N 06416W 5604 05020 0182 -021 -192 092015 017 /// /// 03
185200 1733N 06415W 5484 05195 0306 -032 -185 085015 016 /// /// 03
185230 1733N 06413W 5375 05350 0315 -042 -248 084014 015 /// /// 03
185300 1732N 06411W 5276 05497 0321 -052 -220 072014 015 /// /// 03
185330 1731N 06409W 5170 05654 0330 -060 -242 072015 016 /// /// 03
185400 1730N 06408W 5073 05806 0338 -068 -269 073013 016 /// /// 03
185430 1729N 06406W 4976 05957 0346 -072 -288 075015 015 /// /// 03
185500 1728N 06404W 4891 06088 0353 -081 -313 076015 015 /// /// 03
185530 1727N 06402W 4805 06231 0363 -092 -311 073014 015 /// /// 03
185600 1727N 06400W 4708 06391 0372 -102 -316 074013 013 /// /// 03
185630 1726N 06358W 4639 06500 0375 -106 -283 077011 012 /// /// 03
185700 1725N 06357W 4563 06623 0379 -112 -278 071007 010 /// /// 03
185730 1724N 06355W 4500 06729 0387 -117 -284 058005 005 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Stormlover2012]

Sw la

[Evil Jeremy]

Going to be a while before we start getting some useful information. Ill be posting the images sporadically until the mission reaches Chantal.

[Dave]

long flight out there....

Yes, pull up a comfortable chair and relax...

[Portastorm]

Hey Folks,

let's keep this thread about model runs for Chantal and directly related conversation. Let's avoid personal feelings about certain models or quick retorts that don't add to the discussion. Thanks!

Yes ... let me echo the well-timed comments of my esteemed fellow moderator ... we take a dim view of the whole "my model's great and your model stinks" thing. Once the board gets more active if and when Chantal (or other named systems) approach the CONUS, we'll start deleting those kinds of posts.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS (Red)

[Evil Jeremy]

Sw la

After moving through Florida. Important to note the path.

[djmikey]

Sw la

LOL....Ok, Thanks!

[ROCK]

no one mentioned the 12Z NAVGEM....it has been upgraded. might be start of a trend...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/navgemtc ... =Animation

[NDG]

HR sat loop of Chantal this afternoon.

[torrea40]

HR sat loop of Chantal this afternoon.

[img ]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/SEL_50_20130708_1215_goes13_x_vis1km_high_03LCHANTAL_40kts-1005mb-106N-506W_100pc_zps15119074.gif[/img]

Waooooooooo...Strong Storm...

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 081906
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 05 20130708
185800 1723N 06353W 4437 06834 0395 -125 -291 037005 005 /// /// 03
185830 1722N 06351W 4359 06972 0404 -128 -334 039007 008 /// /// 03
185900 1721N 06349W 4290 07095 0411 -136 -408 048009 010 /// /// 03
185930 1720N 06347W 4224 07213 0418 -144 -437 050012 012 /// /// 03
190000 1720N 06346W 4170 07312 0424 -152 -446 051012 012 /// /// 03
190030 1719N 06344W 4126 07393 0428 -157 -449 050011 012 /// /// 03
190100 1718N 06342W 4076 07480 0433 -164 -451 052011 012 /// /// 03
190130 1717N 06340W 4032 07570 0439 -169 -452 050010 011 /// /// 03
190200 1716N 06338W 3990 07643 0443 -173 -453 049008 009 /// /// 03
190230 1715N 06336W 3949 07719 0446 -179 -454 045007 008 /// /// 03
190300 1714N 06334W 3912 07793 0450 -180 -455 054007 007 /// /// 03
190330 1713N 06332W 3867 07876 0454 -182 -458 062008 008 /// /// 03
190400 1712N 06330W 3834 07940 0458 -187 -460 063008 009 /// /// 03
190430 1711N 06328W 3794 08023 0465 -194 -462 067009 010 /// /// 03
190500 1710N 06327W 3765 08077 0467 -200 -464 080011 011 /// /// 03
190530 1709N 06325W 3757 08087 0465 -203 -465 080011 012 /// /// 03
190600 1708N 06323W 3758 08084 0463 -205 -466 071010 011 /// /// 03
190630 1707N 06320W 3758 08083 0461 -205 -468 076011 011 /// /// 03
190700 1706N 06318W 3759 08080 0459 -203 -472 079012 012 /// /// 03
190730 1705N 06316W 3759 08081 0458 -200 -476 080013 013 024 000 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

12Z Canadian shows a moderate storm running up the east side of Florida and then inland, ending up near my backyard.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[JonathanBelles]

Very dry up there!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Slow strengthening seems to be key here prior to interaction with Hispaniola. Thereafter, assuming it survives its crossing -- LGEM and SHIPS say it does well -- it should cross Florida and enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Long way out, but with a backing-southwest upper-level low, could spell trouble.

[torrea40]

Link recon ....
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/

[floridasun78]

what site do you all get plane data from?

[torrea40]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 19:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number: 03

Storm Name: Chantal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 1

Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Monday, 19:11Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 16.9N 63.0W
Location: 33 miles (53 km) to the SSW (213°) from Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,620 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 60° at 11 knots (From the ENE at ~ 12.6 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -20°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -48°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,610 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 20 knots (~ 23.0mph)