ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[SFLcane]

Heres another loop

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 081916
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 06 20130708
190800 1704N 06314W 3759 08080 0457 -200 -480 078013 013 025 001 03
190830 1703N 06312W 3761 08077 0456 -203 -486 074012 013 026 000 00
190900 1702N 06309W 3759 08078 0456 -205 -490 067011 012 026 000 00
190930 1701N 06307W 3761 08068 0455 -205 -494 062011 011 025 000 00
191000 1700N 06305W 3762 08071 0455 -207 -497 059011 011 024 000 00
191030 1658N 06302W 3759 08070 0456 -207 -501 058011 011 025 000 00
191100 1657N 06300W 3761 08071 0456 -205 -503 059011 011 024 000 00
191130 1656N 06257W 3761 08073 0455 -205 -506 065012 013 021 001 00
191200 1655N 06255W 3762 08072 0454 -205 -509 056011 012 021 000 00
191230 1654N 06252W 3761 08069 0453 -205 -511 057013 013 021 000 00
191300 1653N 06250W 3762 08070 0454 -205 -514 055013 013 022 000 00
191330 1652N 06248W 3759 08070 0454 -205 -516 054012 013 021 000 00
191400 1650N 06245W 3762 08065 0452 -209 -518 042012 013 020 000 00
191430 1649N 06243W 3761 08069 0453 -207 -519 056012 013 020 000 00
191500 1648N 06240W 3761 08070 0453 -205 -445 058013 013 021 000 00
191530 1647N 06238W 3761 08069 0452 -205 -442 059013 014 022 000 00
191600 1646N 06235W 3761 08066 0452 -208 -456 057016 016 023 000 00
191630 1645N 06233W 3762 08065 0452 -209 -441 053015 016 023 000 00
191700 1643N 06231W 3758 08074 0452 -207 -448 054015 016 022 000 00
191730 1642N 06228W 3761 08069 0452 -209 -447 050015 016 019 001 00
$$
;

[Dave]

what site do you all get plane data from?

I use 2...1 main and 1 backups.

Main:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml

Backup - Raw Data

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt

And Tropical Atlantic as a 2nd backup if needed...Use TA to decode VDM & Drops for the public mainly.

[galaxy401]

Some of those western bands could go over the center as convection continues to pop on the west end.

[Blown Away]

WPC shows Chantal's low on the Florida coast day 6...Earlier it did not show the low and Chantal as a front...

[Dave]

If you use Tropical Atlantic becareful because there's also a non task flight in progress also sending back hdobs...don't get the 2 confused.

Same with Dropsonds...non tasked mission is sending data back on its mission also..verify the obs & plane number before posting any info.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 081926
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 07 20130708
191800 1641N 06226W 3762 08065 0451 -211 -494 046015 016 021 000 00
191830 1640N 06223W 3762 08060 0451 -211 -456 044015 015 022 001 00
191900 1639N 06221W 3757 08079 0452 -205 -469 055016 017 026 001 00
191930 1638N 06218W 3757 08079 0451 -208 -458 048015 017 024 000 00
192000 1637N 06216W 3763 08063 0450 -207 -441 057018 019 021 000 00
192030 1635N 06214W 3761 08066 0450 -212 -479 045015 017 015 000 00
192100 1634N 06211W 3759 08069 0451 -212 -483 044014 015 017 000 03
192130 1633N 06209W 3762 08056 0452 -208 -441 051014 014 017 000 00
192200 1632N 06206W 3759 08068 0450 -209 -457 053014 014 013 000 00
192230 1631N 06204W 3761 08066 0449 -209 -438 056014 015 013 000 00
192300 1630N 06201W 3760 08069 0450 -210 -445 053014 014 016 000 00
192330 1629N 06159W 3761 08066 0450 -211 -488 052014 014 015 000 00
192400 1627N 06157W 3762 08065 0448 -210 -472 049013 014 015 000 00
192430 1626N 06154W 3762 08061 0446 -206 -413 054014 014 015 000 03
192500 1625N 06152W 3759 08065 0445 -205 -412 053015 017 018 000 00
192530 1624N 06149W 3763 08061 0440 -204 -370 051018 018 020 000 00
192600 1623N 06147W 3759 08063 0441 -202 -366 053021 022 027 000 03
192630 1622N 06144W 3761 08057 0441 -201 -386 056022 022 /// /// 03
192700 1621N 06142W 3762 08057 0441 -200 -379 054021 022 /// /// 03
192730 1619N 06140W 3758 08063 0441 -203 -430 056020 021 /// /// 03
$$
;

[ROCK]

the key is that ULL over the Bahamas.. as it moves west the high has built back in and Chantal will follow. All about timing really and how much she gets crushed by the islands....

[floridasun78]

their training flight going too like post above say two plane sending data ??

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 081936
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 08 20130708
192800 1618N 06137W 3762 08054 0440 -206 -452 065018 019 /// /// 03
192830 1617N 06135W 3758 08061 0440 -211 -419 067017 018 /// /// 03
192900 1616N 06133W 3762 08055 0440 -213 -409 065015 016 /// /// 03
192930 1615N 06130W 3759 08061 0441 -215 -414 063014 015 /// /// 03
193000 1614N 06128W 3762 08056 0442 -215 -404 063015 015 /// /// 03
193030 1613N 06125W 3758 08063 0441 -215 -403 062014 015 /// /// 03
193100 1612N 06123W 3762 08056 0441 -215 -405 062014 014 /// /// 03
193130 1611N 06120W 3761 08060 0442 -211 -437 061016 016 /// /// 03
193200 1610N 06118W 3760 08059 0441 -212 -436 060014 016 /// /// 03
193230 1609N 06115W 3762 08056 0441 -211 -435 063015 016 /// /// 03
193300 1608N 06113W 3757 08065 0441 -214 -425 065015 016 /// /// 03
193330 1607N 06111W 3762 08055 0440 -213 -432 066015 016 /// /// 03
193400 1606N 06108W 3761 08058 0439 -209 -468 074017 019 /// /// 03
193430 1605N 06106W 3761 08055 0439 -205 -516 076020 020 /// /// 03
193500 1604N 06103W 3761 08055 0439 -205 -515 077021 021 /// /// 03
193530 1603N 06101W 3761 08055 0438 -201 -522 073022 022 /// /// 03
193600 1602N 06058W 3762 08053 0437 -200 -534 071021 022 /// /// 03
193630 1600N 06056W 3761 08053 0436 -197 -536 071021 022 /// /// 03
193700 1559N 06054W 3761 08055 0437 -200 -539 073022 022 /// /// 03
193730 1558N 06051W 3758 08056 0435 -201 -540 072021 022 /// /// 03
$$
;

Passed over Guadeloupe...

[Dave]

their training flight going too like post above say two plane sending data ??

Sometimes it does...watch for the header WXAX usually it's a training mission.

and some cases they use another transmitter...the KHBC one. I've been doing this coming up on 7 years now and still see new things each year.

[Aric Dunn]

for the first time convection firing on the north side.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Evil Jeremy]

I will be updating this post (first post in the recon discussion thread) throughout the mission, updating with the latest findings from the Hurricane Hunters. Should be useful to have all the latest and important numbers in one place:
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115204&p=2316786&hilit=#p2316786

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 081946
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 09 20130708
193800 1557N 06049W 3763 08045 0434 -205 -536 071020 020 /// /// 03
193830 1556N 06046W 3758 08055 0434 -204 -532 068020 021 /// /// 03
193900 1555N 06044W 3762 08047 0433 -200 -536 073021 022 /// /// 03
193930 1554N 06042W 3759 08051 0432 -201 -537 071021 022 /// /// 03
194000 1553N 06039W 3762 08045 0432 -204 -536 072020 021 /// /// 03
194030 1552N 06037W 3761 08048 0431 -205 -535 072019 020 /// /// 03
194100 1551N 06034W 3759 08050 0431 -203 -534 070020 020 /// /// 03
194130 1550N 06032W 3762 08053 0440 -200 -533 074020 021 /// /// 03
194200 1549N 06030W 3759 08060 0441 -202 -533 070020 021 013 000 00
194230 1548N 06027W 3758 08063 0443 -202 -532 071020 021 013 000 00
194300 1547N 06025W 3762 08058 0442 -202 -531 070020 021 015 000 00
194330 1546N 06022W 3761 08057 0443 -200 -532 072019 019 016 000 00
194400 1545N 06020W 3761 08060 0443 -198 -532 078021 022 016 001 00
194430 1544N 06018W 3759 08064 0444 -199 -532 076022 022 017 000 00
194500 1543N 06015W 3761 08056 0443 -200 -531 078023 023 013 002 00
194530 1542N 06013W 3759 08064 0442 -200 -531 081023 023 014 000 00
194600 1541N 06011W 3762 08064 0444 -200 -531 081024 024 013 001 00
194630 1540N 06008W 3759 08057 0443 -200 -530 081024 024 012 000 00
194700 1539N 06006W 3762 08061 0444 -198 -530 085025 025 011 001 00
194730 1538N 06004W 3759 08067 0444 -200 -529 086025 025 014 001 00
$$
;

[AtlanticWind]

THE 2PM EDT TODAY...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. THE LATEST
FORECAST AS OF THIS DISCUSSIONS ISSUANCE TIME TRACKS CHANTAL
ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TUESDAY...SOUTH OF PUERTO
RICO WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS ON
FRIDAY...MAINTAIN CHANTALS STATUS AS A TROPICAL STORM. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS AS TO THE INFLUENCE OF HISPANIOLA ON THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS
HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL WIND-SHEAR WILL SUPPRESS INTENSIFICATION.
THUS...THE IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IN ANY...ARE
UNCLEAR.



From Miami NWS

[Dave]

Evil Jeremy (got to like his id..somehow...lol) will be bringing information over from recon to update everyone...

from Jeremy

I will be updating this post (first post in the recon discussion thread) throughout the mission, updating with the latest findings from the Hurricane Hunters. Should be useful to have all the latest and important numbers in one place.

[Bad_Hurricane]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013AL03/OHCNFCST/2013AL03_OHCNFCST_201307081200.GIF

[adam0983]

At this time all the models are suggesting that Tropical Storm Chantal move back towards Florida as a strong Bermuda High builds back in which will allow Tropical Storm Chantal to move back towards the west. Does anyone see a break down of the ridge in 120 hours which will allow Tropical Storm Chantal to turn out to sea and not towards Florida. Just an opinion not a forecast.

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 081956
AF302 0103A CHANTAL HDOB 10 20130708
194800 1536N 06002W 3761 08058 0444 -200 -529 084024 025 015 001 00
194830 1535N 05959W 3759 08063 0444 -200 -529 083024 024 019 000 00
194900 1533N 05957W 3761 08065 0444 -200 -529 081023 024 018 000 00
194930 1532N 05955W 3761 08060 0444 -200 -528 079023 023 016 000 00
195000 1531N 05953W 3759 08067 0445 -200 -528 079023 024 017 000 00
195030 1529N 05951W 3761 08070 0445 -200 -528 079024 024 018 000 00
195100 1528N 05948W 3758 08067 0444 -200 -528 077023 024 018 000 00
195130 1527N 05946W 3761 08057 0443 -200 -527 078024 024 019 000 00
195200 1525N 05944W 3761 08058 0443 -200 -526 078024 024 019 000 00
195230 1524N 05942W 3761 08061 0442 -200 -526 077024 024 019 000 00
195300 1522N 05940W 3761 08058 0441 -200 -526 076024 024 018 000 00
195330 1521N 05937W 3761 08062 0442 -200 -526 076024 024 018 000 00
195400 1520N 05935W 3761 08058 0443 -200 -527 076024 024 019 000 00
195430 1518N 05933W 3761 08063 0442 -200 -526 076024 024 018 000 00
195500 1517N 05931W 3760 08059 0443 -200 -526 078024 024 019 000 00
195530 1516N 05929W 3761 08060 0441 -203 -526 083024 024 018 000 00
195600 1514N 05927W 3761 08059 0440 -206 -527 084024 024 019 000 00
195630 1513N 05924W 3761 08058 0440 -207 -526 083023 024 018 000 00
195700 1512N 05922W 3761 08058 0440 -208 -526 084023 023 018 000 00
195730 1510N 05920W 3761 08056 0440 -210 -527 086023 024 018 000 00
$$
;

[ROCK]

At this time all the models are suggesting that Tropical Storm Chantal move back towards Florida as a strong Bermuda High builds back in which will allow Tropical Storm Chantal to move back towards the west. Does anyone see a break down of the ridge in 120 hours which allow Tropical Storm Chantal to turn out to sea and not towards Florida. Just an opinion not a forecast.

too early right now as a lot of uncertainy remains after 3 days.....land interaction, timing, etc...IMO the models are still figuring this out..the EURO failure to provide a clear consensus is bothersome. I would like to see what it does tonight.