WPAC: Tropical Storm Trami (12W) (Maring PAGASA)

[jaguarjace]

20.9N 124.6E

[jaguarjace]

180h Sea Level Pressure scenarios from CMC and GFS models:

[Hurricane_Luis]

This one is expected to develop into Typhoon Trami, a slow mover over the southern Japanese Islands and then a turn East to make landfall over Northern China.

[vrif]

JMA's 48 hour forecast both 98W and 99W becoming a TD. Perhaps a merger of the two?

edit: Just took a peak at the model outputs, and they seem to agree the two invest may merge.

[vrif]

CWB radar can see 98W off its east coast.

[vrif]

Upgraded to a TD


WWJP25 RJTD 151800
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 23N 124E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[vrif]

Gale Warning issued by JMA.

WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 22.8N 123.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 22.5N 124.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

WTPQ30 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 22.8N 123.8E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 160000 UTC IS FAIR.
TD WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[vrif]

The updates keep on rolling in. JTWC out look on development is LOW.

ABPW10 PGTW 160200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/160200Z-160600ZAUG2013//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 22.8N 123.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED,
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LINEAR DEEP
CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A DIVERGENT QUADRANT
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE
REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.1N 132.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A POSSIBLE MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A TUTT CELL, WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE RECENT BURST IN CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREAS IN PARA 1.B.(1) AND 1.B.
(2) AS LOWS.//

[RobWESTPACWX]

JMA has both 98 and 99 a TD now.



This is going to be one big messy storm though, my latest thoughts on this.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROERLKRIgZk[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

Tropical Storm Trami forecasted in 24hrs.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.8N
123.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 123.1E, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA (ROIG). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A FRAGMENTED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 160125Z METOP-B MHS IMAGE INDICATES WEAK
BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPOSED LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
ROIG INDICATE EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR
1003 MB AND 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 5 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD DFFLUENCE FUELING PERSISTENT AREAS
OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE
DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Its there, its naked though. Put some cloth on!

[vrif]

I am surprised how zonal the jet stream is in this +120hr forecast. No wonder why it is expected to curve back to China and hopefully bring badly needed rain to the region.

[vrif]

JTWC upgraded to a medium

ABPW10 PGTW 161330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161330Z-170600ZAUG2013//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 23.0N
123.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 123.1E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA (ROIG). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. A 160859Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 160355Z OCEANSAT IMAGE INDICATES A DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ROIG
INDICATE EASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1003 MB
AND 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 4 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE FUELING PERSISTENT AREAS OF DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.6N
134.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 160859Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LLCC WITH AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
LLCC DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A 160028Z ASCAT IMAGE
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND WEAK (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) WINDS
ELSEWHERE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1)
AND 1.B.(2) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[vrif]

Latest ASCAT pass

[vrif]

Latest OSCAT pass with 99W in the frame also

[Meow]

As of now,

98W: JMA TD [GW], JTWC TCFA
99W: JMA TD [GW], JTWC TCFA

Let’s guest who will become a TS first.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Issued



WTPN21 PGTW 162000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.0N 123.3E TO 23.1N 126.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161632Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.1N 123.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.3N
123.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 123.6E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKI-JIMA (ROIG). RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. A
161718Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, RADAR ANIMATION FROM TAIWAN
INDICATES A SIMILAR STRUCTURE WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE A WELL
DEFINED LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND BARBS WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172000Z.
//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

As of now,

98W: JMA TD [GW], JTWC TCFA
99W: JMA TD [GW], JTWC TCFA

Let’s guest who will become a TS first.

I'm going with 98W, JMA has a depression and now the JTWC has issued a TCFA.

[Meow]

I'm going with 98W, JMA has a depression and now the JTWC has issued a TCFA.

99W has the same conditions.