WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

[Meow]

East of Luzon.

[Meow]

ECMWF estimates 99W becoming a very strong typhoon (Usagi) and crossing Bashi Channel, ultimately affecting the Pearl River Delta.

[Typhoon Hunter]

And we're off.... this could be a real menace to Taiwan / Luzon or S China Sea per models. GFS slam this into Taiwan as a strong typhoon. I notice CMC and NAVGEM are showing a slight deviation away from consensus with a potential recurve but the big 3 (ECMFW, GFS and UKMET) continue to show a W or WNW track.

[mrbagyo]

another monsoon enhancer...

[euro6208]

moderate to high chance for development...

[phwxenthusiast]

has anyone noticed that the geo satellite images (MTSAT-1R) on the NRL TC Page are all outdated for the WPAC basin?? even the FNMOC site have outdated images as well... the microwave sensors appear to be updated constantly though...

EDIT: Looks like FNMOC has fixed the issue (if there is one) and the MTSAT images appear to be up to date again; the NRL is still having some issues, though, it looks like...

[Meow]

It may become a tropical storm within 24 hours.



TD
Issued at 04:05 UTC, 16 September 2013

<Analyses at 16/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N17°30'(17.5°)
E132°40'(132.7°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 17/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°05'(18.1°)
E131°00'(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 160430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 17.1N 132.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160400Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 132.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0N
129.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 160044Z METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER WITH EXPOSED, SHALLOW
BANDING ELSEWHERE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP INDICATES RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTINCT
LLCC AS TS 16W TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST INTO JAPAN. A 160047Z
PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A DEINED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTH QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT WITH QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 UNTIL THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS THEN
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
170430Z.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A typhoon in 24 hours? What is going on!!!

[RL3AO]

Should be very close to JTWC initiating advisories.

[euro6208]

this already has the looks of a significant typhoon developing down the road...very impressive outflow and a burst of convection near the center...

[euro6208]

Should be very close to JTWC initiating advisories.

PGTW and KNES at 1.5...very very close to depression status...

[euro6208]

looking good...





25 to 30 knot wind barbs...

[Dave C]

That upper low to it's east should provide a nice outflow channel for a while!

[cycloneye]

First warning from JTWC:

WTPN32 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160421Z SEP 2013//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 132.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 132.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.6N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.4N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 17.3N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 17.7N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.0N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.8N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 22.2N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 131.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z
IS 6 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 160421Z SEP 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 160430). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 16W (MAN-YI) FOR FINAL
WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//

[vrif]

JMA upgraded to TS Usagi

[Extratropical94]

JMA expects a 70 knot 10-min typhoon in less than three days.

WTPQ21 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1319 USAGI (1319)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 18.0N 130.3E POOR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 200NM SOUTHWEST 100NM NORTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 18.0N 128.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 181800UTC 18.1N 126.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 191800UTC 18.8N 122.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[RL3AO]

Convection is displaced so it looks to be slightly sheared, but it looks like a quickly developing system.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah looks a little sheared but models aggressively developing this. Not sure why JMA track is so close to Luzon, model consensus currently has this tracking into southern Taiwan but as we all know that could change!

[RL3AO]

Impressing band on the NW side and quite the band of convection south of the system too.