WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

JMA: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 18N 152E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.2N 151.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK AND EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MINIMAL FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 010220Z OSCAT PASS REVEALS THAT ALTHOUGH THE
LLCC IS VERY DEFINED, IT IS VERY WEAK WITH ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOT MAX
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2N
151.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT
HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 020014Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT MAX WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE BETTER
DEFINITION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

looks like we have a tropical storm...

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[Hurricane_Luis]

JMA Tropical Depression

TD
Issued at 13:25 UTC, 2 October 2013

<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N16°40'(16.7°)
E150°40'(150.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

[Extratropical94]

JMA expects a TS out of this depression.

WTPQ21 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 16.7N 150.7E POOR
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 16.4N 148.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[euro6208]

WTPN22 PGTW 022330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 150.2E TO 15.9N 146.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 022201Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.3N 149.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N
151.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 149.6E, APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS ENHANCED FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED,
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021948Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF LLCC. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE IS SYMMETRICAL,
COLLOCATED WITH THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE DISTURBANCE AND HAS
SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING HINDERED BY A TUTT LOCATED TO NORTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THIS AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO PERSISTENT, CONSOLIDATING ENHANCED CONVECTION AND FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032330Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

186
WWMY80 PGUM 030104 CCA
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1104 AM CHST THU OCT 3 2013

GUZ003>005-PMZ153-154-031200-
TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN MARIANAS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN
COASTAL WATERS-
1104 AM CHST THU OCT 3 2013

CORRECTED FOR EXPIRATION TIME

...DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MARIANAS.
THE DISTURBANCE IS GENERALLY DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE 
NORTHERN MARIANAS. THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 
INDICATING A HIGH POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE 
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN 
MARIANAS. WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MILES PER HOUR WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE OVER TINIAN...SAIPAN AND THE 
NORTHERN MARIANAS.

THIS SYSTEM SHOWS A POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER 
SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY 
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

KLEESCHULTE


.

[stormkite]

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20131003 0201 16.6 -149.2 T1.5/1.5 97W 97W









A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97W)

B. 03/0201Z

C. 16.6N

D. 149.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS FIX IS COMPLETED ON THE 0201Z IMAGE DUE TO THE MTSAT-2
SUN INTERFERENCE OPERATION. DT OF 1.5 IS BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. MET IS
1.0 AND PT IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[euro6208]

163
WWMY80 PGUM 031206
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1006 PM CHST THU OCT 3 2013

GUZ003>005-PMZ153-154-040200-
TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN MARIANAS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN
COASTAL WATERS-
1006 PM CHST THU OCT 3 2013

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MARIANAS
CENTERED NEAR 16N149E.

THIS IS ABOUT...355 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
245 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
240 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN.

THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN MARIANAS. IT REMAINS THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER INDICATING A
HIGH POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR THE ISLANDS OF ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY
DAYBREAK AND WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE ISLANDS.

FOR THE ISLANDS OF TINIAN...SAIPAN AND AGRIHAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE ISLANDS.

THIS SYSTEM SHOWS A POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IN SMALL BOATS IS NOT
RECOMMENDED NORTH OF ROTA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STAY INFORMED
ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST
FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

344
WWMY80 PGUM 031422
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1222 AM CHST FRI OCT 4 2013

GUZ003>005-PMZ153-154-040200-
TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN MARIANAS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN
COASTAL WATERS-
1222 AM CHST FRI OCT 4 2013

...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN NEAR 16N148E.

THIS IS ABOUT...270 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM
160 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W CONTINUES TO DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MARIANAS.

FOR THE ISLANDS OF ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR
DAYBREAK AND WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE ISLANDS.

FOR THE ISLANDS OF TINIAN...SAIPAN AND AGRIHAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED BY MID MORNING AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE ISLANDS.

INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IN SMALL BOATS IS NOT RECOMMENDED NORTH OF ROTA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 23W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE CNMI. STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN
FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS AND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORIES
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022330ZOCT2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.8N 148.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 148.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.0N 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.5N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 17.1N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 18.1N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 20.9N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.7N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 30.0N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 148.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND
041500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 022330Z OCT 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN22 PGTW 022330). REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (FITOW) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 1//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER
THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS, WITH A BAND OF ORGANIZING DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
HAS BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND A RECENT
031100Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AS MID-
LATITUDE EASTERLIES HAVE BEEN ENHANCING THE GRADIENT, LEADING TO A
SMALL SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS. THE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE SYSTEM REMAIN WEAK WITH THE ASCAT PASS INDICATING SPEEDS
BETWEEN 05 TO 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TUTT CELL
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ENHANCING THE EASTERN OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, WITH TD 23W LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE PHILIPPINES CREATING MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE LLCC. TD 23W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SECOND STR LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHERN JAPAN WILL START TO FILL AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST,
ALLOWING THE STR TO THE NORTH OF TD 23W TO RE-ORIENT. AS THE STR RE-
ORIENTS, TD 23W WILL START TRACKING ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29
CELSIUS) ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, WITH IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL ALLOW TD 23W TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 23W WILL REMAIN ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR, TRACKING TOWARDS OKINAWA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK HAS THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OKINAWA AROUND TAU 108.
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TAU 120, BRINGING THE
SYSTEM TO A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS BASED ON THE FAVORABLE SST
VALUES, LOW VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE STR, CAUSING A SHIFT IN THE STR TO THE EAST CREATING A
SLIGHT WEAKNESS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THIS WEAKNESS
WILL ALLOW TD 23W TO TURN NORTHWARD AFTER CROSSING OKINAWA. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY TIGHT GROUPING THROUGH TAU 96, WITH ALL
MODELS SUGGESTING THE TURN NORTHWARD BY TAU 120, BUT THERE IS A
SLIGHT VARIATION IN THE SHARPNESS OF THE CURVE. BASED ON THE WEAKLY
DEFINED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM, AND BEING THE FIRST FORECAST,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

064 
WWMY80 PGUM 032201
SPSMY 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
801 AM CHST FRI OCT 4 2013

GUZ003>005-PMZ153-154-040800-
TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN MARIANAS-TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN 
COASTAL WATERS-
801 AM CHST FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W HEADING FOR THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W IS CENTERED NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN NEAR 16.0N 
147.4E.

THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
        ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND
        ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH TOWARD THE NORTHERN 
MARIANAS.

FOR THE ISLANDS OF ALAMAGAN AND PAGAN...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH 
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR 
DAYBREAK AND WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 
3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE ISLANDS.

FOR THE ISLANDS OF TINIAN...SAIPAN AND AGRIHAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING AND WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH 
GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE ISLANDS.

INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IN SMALL BOATS IS NOT RECOMMENDED NORTH OF ROTA 
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 23W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY 
DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE CNMI. STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING 
WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN 
FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS AND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORIES 
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY 
MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

CHAN/MIDDLEBROOKE

522 
WTPQ31 PGUM 032156
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232013
800 AM CHST FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W MOVING WEST TOWARD ANATAHAN...


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.  

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.0N 146.9E 

ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN  
ABOUT 225 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W 
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 
146.9 EAST. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
TURN WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W JUST 
SOUTH OF ANATAHAN AROUND 200 PM TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W IS 
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER PASSING THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W (TWENTY-THREE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 102 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 031728Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BETTER
ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A WEAK TUTT CELL LOCATED
NEAR 23N 163E. TD 23W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO TURN ONTO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE DEEP STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH UKMO,
JENS AND JGSM INDICATING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN VICE A
RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE RE-CURVE
SCENARIO BASED ON AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
INTO EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 72. TD 23W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 23W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE TOWARD
OKINAWA AND SOUTH KOREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMO AND JENS,
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STABLE AND IS CENTERED AROUND OKINAWA WITH
A RE-CURVE TOWARD SOUTH KOREA OR NORTHWEST KYUSHU; HOWEVER, THE
SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS (MINUS UKMO AND JENS) IS LARGE AT 264 NM,
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TD
23W IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 95 KNOTS DUE IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
AFTER TAU 96, TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTS WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

Wow...Okinawa could potentially feel 2 typhoons in 4 days...according to the forecasts

[Extratropical94]

Now Tropical Storm Danas:

WTPQ21 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1324 DANAS (1324) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 16.4N 146.3E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 17.8N 141.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 060600UTC 20.0N 136.6E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 070600UTC 22.7N 131.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[euro6208]

23W DANAS 131004 1200 17.2N 144.8E WPAC 35 996

Upgraded to tropical storm danas...

[euro6208]

286
WTPQ31 PGUM 041520
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANAS (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232013
200 AM CHST SAT OCT 5 2013

...DANAS (23W) NOW A TROPICAL STORM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.4N 144.2E

ABOUT 115 MILES WEST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 115 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 275 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANAS WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.2
EAST.

TROPICAL STORM DANAS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH...AWAY FROM
THE MARIANAS ISLANDS. DANAS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN TURN
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
DANAS IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...AND MAY BECOME A TYPHOON BY LATE
SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM NORTH OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVING OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRALIZED CONVECTION OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN FOR THE PAST
SIX HOURS. A RECENT 041128Z ASCAT PASS WAS A PARTIAL PASS OVER THE
LLCC, BUT DID INDICATE THE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
WERE BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A WEAK TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR 23N
163E. TS 23W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR. FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WITH IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 23W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE TO THE
NORTH AFTER PASSING OKINAWA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SEA OF JAPAN IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. TS
23W IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 80 KNOTS DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS AROUND TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COLD AIR INTRUSION WILL
LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND. AFTER TAU 96, TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND
INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 23W IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE ETT SHORTLY AFTER TAU 120, NEAR WESTERN HONSHU. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK THROUGH
TAU 72, WITH AN INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER, BUT ALL MODELS STILL
INDICATE THE TURN INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN. BASED ON THE GROUPING OF
MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72, BUT WITH THE INCREASING SPREAD BEYOND TAU 72, THE
CONFIDENCE DROPS TO LOW.//
NNNN

[stormkite]

Looking better on every pass.

[euro6208]

DANAS FLOATER




looking very healthy this afternoon...