WPAC: WIPHA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

13.6N-150.2E.



SSD Floater

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0N
153.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MSI REVEALS FLARING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, POORLY ORGANIZED LLCC. A 072255Z
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND SHOWS WEAK
TROUGHING WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY.
STRONGER 15 TO 20 KNOT WIND BARBS ARE IDENTIFIED IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC, ENHANCED BY GRADIENT CONVERGENCE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VWS (05 TO 10 KTS) WITH FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N
150.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BROAD
CONVECTIVE BANDING, PRIMARILY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
A 082012Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE
NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO THE BROAD LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05 TO 10 KTS) AS WELL AS GOOD OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY THE TUTT POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN MARIANAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 149.2E TO 15.4N 144.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
090600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N
148.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
149.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 149.1E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) AND BROAD, ALBEIT BROKEN,
CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 090724Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH BROKEN
CONVECTION WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KTS) AND DIFFLUENT EASTERLY
OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MARIANAS
ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101000Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

20131010 0232 14.1 -145.3 T1.0/1.0 92W 92W

it's been a very cloudy rainy day as a strong monsoon surge in association with 92W continues...

[jaguarjace]

Nari and 92W.

[euro6208]

quite a discrepancy between the 2 agencies in finding the LLCC...

JTWC:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7N
146.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 144.7E, APPROXIMATELY 28 NM NORTH
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY
MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC). A BROAD, ALBEIT
BROKEN, CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE HAS PERSISTED AND SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
A 100808Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KTS), DIFFLUENT EASTERLY
OUTFLOW, AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF B (WTPN21
PGTW 101000) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
HIGH.

SSD:

H. REMARKS...DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, CENTER FIX IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED OFF OF THE MID LEVEL CIRC... BUT I
THINK ITS LIKELY THAT THE TRUE LOW LEVEL IS CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE RECENT
FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION. DT OF 1.5 IS BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. MET IS
1.0 AND PT IS 1.5.FT IS BASED ON DT.

Latest Obs from Anderson AFB and Guam Airport winds gusting from 21 Gusting to 32 and from the south and 10 Gusting to 16 from the south...very heavy rains hitting guam...pressure at 1000 mb...

anyways...



TCFA Reissued...

[euro6208]

284
WHMY50 PGUM 101142
SMWMY
PMZ151-101330-
/O.NEW.PGUM.MA.W.0002.131010T1142Z-131010T1330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
942 PM CHST THU OCT 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TIYAN GUAM HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR GUAM COASTAL WATERS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CHST

* AT 931 PM CHST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS OVER GUAM
COASTAL WATERS...OR ABOUT 29 NM SOUTHWEST OF APRA HARBOR...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.

* THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
GUAM AT 1010 PM CHST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 1334 14400 1338 14445 1300 14501 1264 14471
1278 14421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1137Z 177DEG 10KT 1306 14433

$$

MCELROY

[euro6208]

huge blowup...

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to TD 25W by JTWC.

25W TWENTYFIVE 131010 1200 13.3N 142.9E WPAC 25 1004

[cycloneye]

First forecast track by JTWC. Is forecast to be a typhoon in 72 hours.

[euro6208]

already the 25th TC of the season and it's only october 11? wow...

although this is nothing compared to the most active wpac seasons....i'm still amazed...

[euro6208]

099
WWPQ80 PGUM 101453
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1253 AM CHST FRI OCT 11 2013

PMZ161-171-172-110400-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-
1253 AM CHST FRI OCT 11 2013

...INCLEMENT WEATHER AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS WESTERN MICRONESIA...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W IS CENTERED WEST OF GUAM AT
13.5N142.6E. THIS SYSTEM IS DRAWING A TAIL OF FRESH TO STRONG
MONSOONAL WINDS ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...YAP AND CHUUK STATES.
THESE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU AND YAP STATE...AND HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR ALL THE ABOVE LOCATIONS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED BETWEEN 4N AND 9N FROM 133E TO 148E
MOST OF THIS EVENING. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE ANTICIPATED
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN EASTERN YAP STATE...
THIS INCLUDES WOLEAI...FARAULEP...SATAWAL AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

IN WESTERN YAP STATE...
THIS INCLUDES YAP ISLAND...NGULU...ULITHI AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...
THIS INCLUDES KOROR...KAYANGEL AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

SATELLITE-DERIVED SEA HEIGHTS CONTINUED TO SHOW COMBINED SEAS OF 8
TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...YAP AND CHUUK STATES.
THESE SEA CONDITIONS ARE DANGEROUS FOR SMALL BOATS AND INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL IS HIGHLY NOT RECOMMENDED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HAZARDOUS
SURF ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RESIDENTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...YAP AND CHUUK STATES ARE
ADVISED TO MONITOR FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND INSTRUCTIONS
AVAILABLE FROM THEIR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICES AND RADIO STATIONS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
AND UPDATE THIS SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AS NEEDED.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

triplets...

[euro6208]

it's sitting over high OHC but forecast to get even more favorable in 12 hours...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 696
NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AS THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE CONSOLIDATED JUST
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. A 100959Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD,
ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AS WELL AS LOCAL RADAR
FIXES FROM GUAM WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 BASED AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS
FROM GUAM AND ROTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW, AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
TD 25W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 25W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
WILL AID THE SYSTEM IN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU
72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH
ONLY SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN POSITION TO THE EAST AND WEST. BY TAU 72,
AS TD 25W APPROACHES THE STR AXIS, THE UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODEL
TRACKERS INCREASES IN BOTH POSITION AND SPEED. THE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS LOW.
C. IN THE LATER TAUS, TD 25W IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE STR AXIS
NEAR TAU 96 AND BEGIN RECURVING MORE POLEWARD BY TAU 120. INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE THE SYSTEM AS THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD IN THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE DYNAMIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND THIS BEING
THE FIRST WARNING THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

083
WTPQ31 PGUM 101555
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP252013
200 AM CHST FRI OCT 11 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W FORMS WEST OF GUAM...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...13.5N 142.6E

ABOUT 145 MILES WEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 235 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 410 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 142.6 EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 14 MPH. 25W IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. 25W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

STANKO

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

25W TWENTYFIVE 131010 1800 13.3N 142.9E WPAC 30 1000

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TS (WIPHA)


Issued at 19:25 UTC, 10 October 2013
<Analyses at 10/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°30'(13.5°)
E142°50'(142.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 11/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E140°30'(140.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 12/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°05'(17.1°)
E138°20'(138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 13/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°55'(18.9°)
E136°00'(136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
ropical Storm Wipha.

[hurricanes1234]

Yet another typhoon forecasted out of this.

[hurricanes1234]

Now forecasting a 100 knot major typhoon!