SIO: INVEST 98S

[supercane4867]

4.5S 94E

[supercane4867]

Potential Cyclones:

A low pressure system near 03S 094E, which is well north of the Region, is
showing signs of increased convection. Conditions conducive to development
become slightly more favourable during the week. Even if the system does
develop into a tropical cyclone, it is expected to move southwest and NOT enter
the Western Region.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Region on:
Monday Very Low
Tuesday Very Low
Wednesday Very Low

[supercane4867]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 5.0S 94.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 455 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING,
PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 101343Z SSMIS IMAGE
INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT
OF THE LLCC; HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS ILL-DEFINED WITH WEAK BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 100544Z OCEANSAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2S 94.2E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3S 93.7E, APPROXIMATELY 294 NM NORTHWEST
OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING, PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A
112307Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED STRUCTURE WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC WITH WEAK BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 111457Z
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WEAKER 10-15 KNOT WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.