ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143855
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 28, 2013 2:27 pm

Nestor coming from this?

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201311281920
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2013, DB, O, 2013112818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902013
AL, 90, 2013112718, , BEST, 0, 227N, 380W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2013112800, , BEST, 0, 238N, 382W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2013112806, , BEST, 0, 243N, 384W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2013112812, , BEST, 0, 246N, 386W, 30, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2013112818, , BEST, 0, 248N, 389W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 375, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116023&p=2359332#p2359332

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2905
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

#2 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 2:42 pm

Frontal system will kill it. I don't see anything more than a weak TS.


The preceding was only my amateur opinion, and not an official forecast or information.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

#3 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 2:53 pm

A weak TS in December is impressive
0 likes   
Top
hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2905
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

#4 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 3:45 pm

supercane4867 wrote:A weak TS in December is impressive



That is true. :D
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Top
hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2905
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

#5 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 4:58 pm

Image

Possible repeat of Melissa not too long ago. That's funny. :lol:

NOT OFFICIAL INFORMATION!
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143855
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

#6 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 28, 2013 6:18 pm

Down from 30% to 20% in five days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
THE AZORES. ALTHOUGH THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2905
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

#7 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 6:32 pm

Development, in my opinion, is less likely now.

NOT OFFICIAL.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Top
TheStormExpert

#8 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Nov 28, 2013 8:40 pm

In a season like 2013 has been this would be shocking news if we did get a minimal TS out of this. I don't expect this one to develop like it's sister Melissa did recently.
0 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19989
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 20% / 20%

#9 Postby tolakram » Sun Dec 01, 2013 2:13 am

While we were away Dev chances dropped to 0.

Season over. :)
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143855
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 02, 2013 8:47 pm

Finnally they deactivate it. :)


NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201312030129
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143855
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 04, 2013 9:20 am

90L is alive again!!

AL, 90, 2013120412, , BEST, 0, 321N, 285W, 50, 995, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 90, 90, 1015, 400, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143855
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:06 am

Impressive.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10140
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#13 Postby Blown Away » Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:18 am

Wow, that is a cool shot!! :uarrow:
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19989
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#14 Postby tolakram » Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:20 am

MIMIC-TPW live loop http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143855
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:58 pm

20%/20%

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF THE AZORES
ISLANDS. THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS OF NEAR 60 MPH...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE IT IS AFFECTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
MOVES OVER COLDER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED NEAR 1 PM EST THURSDAY
DECEMBER 5...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2905
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

#16 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:38 pm

I'd suspect that if it isn't upgraded soon, it would be there in the post-tropical re-analysis. By the way, if this forms, it will go straight to Nestor! :ggreen:
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Top
hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2905
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 20% / 20%

#17 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:50 pm

Still not a storm according to 18z best track. However, I personally think it may be upgraded soon, providing it does not fall apart before then because of shear, etc.

AL, 90, 2013120418, , BEST, 0, 318N, 281W, 50, 995, LO
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143855
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 20% / 20%

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:51 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 90, 2013120418, , BEST, 0, 318N, 281W, 50, 995, LO, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 90, 90, 1015, 400, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19989
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion - 20% / 20%

#19 Postby tolakram » Wed Dec 04, 2013 2:08 pm

Floater is active: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90L/90L_floater.html
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2905
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

#20 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:31 pm

Come on, let's see if Nestor finally forms after 90L has been around for quite some time now!
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests