SIO: INVEST 95S

[supercane4867]

[hurricanes1234]

Doesn't look like much other than some small clouds.

[supercane4867]

Potential Cyclones:

A weak Tropical Low, 1007 hPa, is located in the northern Timor Sea, near 10S
128E, which is about 400 kilometres northwest of Darwin. The low is expected to
move slowly south or southwest across the Timor Sea during Monday and Tuesday
and be located just offshore from the north Kimberley coast by Wednesday, when
it may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday Very Low
Tuesday Low
Wednesday Moderate

[hurricanes1234]

Do the models point to a Bruce/Amara situation? Or maybe a Category 1 cyclone on the SSHS? I'm thinking another Alessia-like system.

[stormkite]

Do the models point to a Bruce/Amara situation? Or maybe a Category 1 cyclone on the SSHS? I'm thinking another Alessia-like system.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[hurricanes1234]

Let's hope it stays away from land. After all, a Christmas landfall will be horrible! But the latest image shows it's getting more organised, sadly.

[stormkite]

Let's hope it stays away from land. After all, a Christmas landfall will be horrible! But the latest image shows it's getting more organised, sadly.

monsoon trough

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/mo ... ind-model/



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Christmas Holiday Cyclones
Kim Westcott, Monday December 23, 2013 - 18:43 EDT
T'was two nights before Christmas and all was silent, but in a few days time cyclones may become violent.

It has been an active start to the Australian cyclone season, with the chance of two more developing by the end of the year. So far this season we have had two Tropical Cyclones in the Australian Region, Tropical Cyclone Alessia and Tropical Cyclone Bruce, although Bruce was well off the WA coast.

Currently there are two tropical low pressure systems lingering within the monsoon trough, north of Australia. One system is south of Bali, the other in the Timor Sea, about 230km northwest of Darwin this afternoon.

At this stage, there is a moderate risk that the second system could develop into a Tropical Cyclone on Christmas Day as monsoonal activity increases. This system is likely to take a southwesterly direction, nearing the north Kimberley Coast by Wednesday before heading further west between Christmas and New Years.

Christmas cyclones bring back memories of the devastating effect that Tropical Cyclone Tracy brought to Darwin in Christmas Eve 1974. Leaving nearly 50,000 people homeless and killing 71 people, it is often considered one of the worst natural disasters to affect Australia.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Issued at 9:42 am WST Tuesday 24 December 2013.



Remarks:
GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop on the coast between the WA/NT border and
Mitchell Plateau during Wednesday morning.

HEAVY RAIN is expected over the far north Kimberley region during Wednesday and Thursday.

[stormkite]

04U storm path from BOM - DARWIN
Time Speed Location Status
December 24, 2013 7:01pm 25 knots -12.4, 128.3
December 24, 2013 11:00pm 25 knots -12.7, 128.3
December 25, 2013 5:00am 30 knots -13.1, 128.2
December 25, 2013 11:00am 40 knots -13.5, 128.0
December 25, 2013 5:00pm 40 knots -14.0, 127.6
December 26, 2013 5:00am 30 knots -14.9, 125.7
December 26, 2013 5:00pm 30 knots -15.0, 123.5
December 27, 2013 5:00am 30 knots -15.1, 122.1
December 27, 2013 5:00pm 30 knots -15.0, 120.4
December 28, 2013 5:00pm 50 knots -15.9, 120.1
December 29, 2013 5:00pm 70 knots -17.2, 117.8

Maybe another cracka brewing .


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S
129.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
A RECENT OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CORE AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. DARWIN RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
BUT FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH IS ALSO
EVIDENT IN A 240050Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THE SAME STR IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT
SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE
(28 TO 30 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
CONVECTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Updated BT:

95S INVEST 131224 1200 13.5S 128.2E SHEM 25 1004

20131224 1132 -13.4 -128.0 T1.5/2.0 95S 95S

[stormkite]

llcc appears to be almost stationary in the JBG .




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[HurricaneBill]

Let's hope it stays away from land. After all, a Christmas landfall will be horrible! But the latest image shows it's getting more organised, sadly.

That actually happened. Cyclone Tracy struck Darwin on Christmas Day. Tracy was a very small cyclone, but also very destructive.

[jaguarjace]

AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE DARWIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Issued at 12:37 pm WST Wednesday 25 December 2013.



Remarks:
The low is no longer expected to become a Tropical Cyclone before landfall.

[stormkite]

LLCC clearly visible.
2013DEC25 223200 2.9 992.2 +0.0 43.0






Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5S
128.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 251237Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION SKIRTING THE COAST OF THE
JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS DEPICTS A BROAD
AND WEAK CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST, WITH SHARP TROUGHING
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF WITH WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS. THE
DISTURBANCE CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE WYNDHAM RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF WEAK (5 TO 10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE STR IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A
GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

95S INVEST 131226 0000 15.4S 128.4E SHEM 20 1007

[stormkite]

moved to 98

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
128.5E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

20131225 2332 -12.3 -127.8 Too Weak 95S 95S