ATL: FRED- Remnants - Discussion

[Lifeless]

Wow, back to a tropical storm and now no longer any expected change into an extra tropical storm in the next 5 days? Storms in the Atlantic this year appear to be throwing off the models well and truly.

[RevDodd]

I'll have to give the prize to this year's Fred though, not only persisting but strengthening twice, with winds as high as the shear it's running through.

Quick question: Has a named tropical system EVER hit both the Cape Verde Islands and the Azores? If Fred endures, it looks like a real possibility.

[Ntxw]

He is definitely persistent. He's been fighting shear for awhile, every morning his top gets blown off it's been a interesting sight to follow rinse and repeat.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

Fred has been decapitated again by strong westerly wind shear.
However, the low-level circulation continues to be vigorous. The
initial intensity remains at 35 kt, based on satellite estimates and
continuity. I will not speculate any more about the convection
redeveloping or not. The NHC forecast calls for little change in
intensity during the next 36 hours. If resilient Fred survives the
next day or so, there is a chance of slight re-intensification as
indicated by the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance.

Fred is about to reach a break in the subtropical ridge where the
steering currents are weaker, and is now moving toward the west-
northwest at about 7 kt. A turn to the northwest and north should
begin later today, and by Sunday night, Fred should recurve as it
becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC
forecast follows the trend of all the models, but is closer to the
GFS and the ECMWF solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 23.4N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 23.9N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 25.5N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 27.5N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 29.5N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 31.5N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 33.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 33.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[ScottNAtlanta]

Right Said Fred

I'm too sexy for the shear
too sexy for the shear
That much is so clear...

[Hammy]

5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 5
Location: 23.8°N 42.5°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

Back to TD as of latest advisory but starting to produce storms again.

[Hammy]

Looks like it's entering a more moist/unstable environment, storms forming all around the circulation now.

[txwatcher91]

Fred once again firing convection back over the center and shear is on the increase. Forecast track is getting interesting as well.

[floridasun78]

THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK(NA8722) IS PLANNING A 24
HOUR RESEARCH MISSION AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED
DEPARTING WALLOPS AT 05/1100Z. FLIGHT LEVELS 55,000-
65,000FT. ANTICIPATED DROPSONDES: 75 i read this on facebook look their test NASA GLOBAL HAWK because FRED not going affect land i wont supprise their do same with GRACE later too i not sure far this can fly out

[Hammy]

Too bad the ASCAT pass couldn't have come a few hours later, Fred could be a TS again with that convection.

[Hammy]

Fred's circulation appeared to be dissipating earlier but now there is more banding on the west and south than there has been for about a day and the satellite presentation looks much healthier.

[cycloneye]

REMNANTS OF FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
500 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015

High-resolution visible satellite imagery indicates that the
low-level circulation had become elongated and ill-defined. This
is further reinforced by a 37 GHz GCOM microwave image showing
that the system lacks a well-defined center. Therefore, Fred is
no longer a tropical cyclone and advisories are being discontinued.

The disturbance should continue on a general north-northeastward
heading until it completely loses its identity in a day or so.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 26.5N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Hammy]

I have to disagree with discontinuing advisories and expect the next ASCAT pass will show that not only there is still a well defined circulation (probably small) and that it is stronger than estimated.