WPAC: MAYSAK - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe a typhoon later today? Warming center possible eye.

I'm thinking this is now 55 knots, which is also in accordance to the latest ADT

[xtyphooncyclonex]

All of a sudden, according to JMA, the centre of the storm moved SSW

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Hey HurricaneTracker, what are your thoughts on its track? We need to onow because we have a boat trip on April 2 to Leyte.

Yes, it is important to know where its headed. For now, I think the Philippines should monitor this system closely as it is possible that this could slam them.

Here are some of our thoughts of the system now: http://goo.gl/aypMht

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Hey HurricaneTracker, what are your thoughts on its track? We need to onow because we have a boat trip on April 2 to Leyte.

Yes, it is important to know where its headed. For now, I think the Philippines should monitor this system closely as it is possible that this could slam them.

Here are some of our thoughts of the system now: http://goo.gl/aypMht

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm in the Philippines now actually, Cebu City specifically

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS changes their mind Showing a Bicol-CALABARZON hit south of Manila

[Alyono]

MU has 928mb at landfall in the Philippines

[euro6208]

Up to 55 knots!

04W MAYSAK 150328 0600 7.5N 153.9E WPAC 55 982

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wobble? Or a jog

04W MAYSAK 150328 0000 7.6N 154.9E WPAC 45 989
04W MAYSAK 150328 0600 7.5N 153.9E WPAC 55 982

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nearly identical to Vongfong



There was a time Vongfong looked exactly like Maysak now, but here's the best photo I can find

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Very powerful from GFS (earth model)

[euro6208]

Best analog for this is Super Typoon Mitag back in 2002.

Same location at almost the same time of year with El Niño maturing.

Recurve is a possibly although for Maysak, it all depends on whether the trough will come in time to weaken the STR to allow for more of a recurve.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Only NAVGEM shows the recurve, all others agree on Philippines landfall but no definite location (somewhere over Southern Luzon or Visayas)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

How bout this? Same conditions (but this time cooler SST, higher shear) and presence of STR.

Originated same location compared to Mitag.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Most realistic run IMO is ECMWF 26/00z, which has Maysak following nearly identical motion, position and intensity as to what had panned out - maybe what will tell the forecast. But it is still too early to predict or extrapolate the 5-day predictions of the ACTUAL agencies.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Likely to make a SW jog before moving W, then WNW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/westpac/movies/wgmsdlm3/wgmsdlm3java.html

[ohno]

I dont understand. It's summer. I shouldnt be visiting this site for the next three months

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TS 1504 (MAYSAK)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 28 March 2015

<Analyses at 28/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N7°20'(7.3°)
E154°35'(154.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N7°50'(7.8°)
E149°55'(149.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N8°40'(8.7°)
E144°25'(144.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 31/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N9°30'(9.5°)
E138°55'(138.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

[ohno]

Can anyone explian what is happening pls. I thought el nino was supposed to be dry?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Can anyone explian what is happening pls. I thought el nino was supposed to be dry?

El Niño actually brings some WWBs, which enhance tropical activity. El Niño years are actually the most active years in terms of tropical cyclone activity in the tropical Western and Eastern Pacific Ocean, and a notable case was during the record-breaking El Niño of 1997-98. Typhoons form much farther east, to where there are anomalously warm sea surface temperatures and more favorable atmospheric conditions for development. Storms usually form closer to the International Date Line, as was the case with the past 3 storms. Further west, tropical activity is less because of cooler sea surface temperatures, which also results to less rainfall, and 'dry' weather, as you said. The activity now is likely to be a result of Rossby waves, as models are picking up on development of more systems after Maysak.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Lower latitude, more westerly.

WTPN31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 7.6N 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N 154.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 7.6N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 7.8N 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 8.0N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 8.4N 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 9.1N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 10.1N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 11.7N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 7.6N 154.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM EAST OF
CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//
NNNN